Tag: wall street journal

The Financial Impact of March Madness Meltdowns

An article in today’s Wall Street Journal didn’t pull any punches. “Georgetown: The Monet of Choke Artists,” blared the headline, and the first paragraph didn’t exactly tone it down: “No school in America is becoming more synonymous with NCAA tournament letdowns than Georgetown.”

True, Georgetown has clocked three straight losses to teams that were seeded higher (meaning they are considered worse) than Georgetown, including Sunday’s upset in which North Carolina State, seeded 11th, squeaked by Georgetown, seeded third, by a score of 66 to 63.

Aside from being a sad moment for Georgetown fans, not to mention the team itself, do the losses have any financial impact on the school? According to Scott Rosner, Wharton practice professor of legal studies and business ethics, and academic director of the Wharton Sports Business Academy, “with a school like Georgetown, it’s not significant financially. The only way you might feel that is if you see decreased gate receipts the following season, if people stop going to the games as often or if fundraising is affected.” Rosner, who was faculty mentor to the University of Pennsylvania’s men’s basketball team from 2003 to 2009, doesn’t expect any of that to happen. “It’s really difficult to see a financial impact [from these recent NCAA losses] for a team that has a strong brand.”

The NCAA conference is paid per game and has a revenue sharing formula in place, “which really dilutes the impact of any one school’s performance on the amount of money received,” notes Rosner, adding that years ago, the system was based on dollars per win that went directly to the schools. But these days the money — much of it from TV contracts — goes “to the conference and is split among the teams.”

Georgetown’s recent record includes last year’s loss to Virginia  Commonwealth (seeded 11th), a loss to Ohio (seeded 14th) in 2010, and a loss in 2008 to Davidson (seeded 10th). In 2009, Georgetown wasn’t picked for the tournament.

Meanwhile, one of the rites of spring for sports fans is the office pool that kicks off just before the NCAA tournament begins and requires participants to make their best guess as to which teams will advance to the Final Four, and which one will go on to win the whole tournament. It’s always a drama-filled roller-coaster ride filled with unexpected winners and losers (witness Georgetown’s experience) and enough plot twists to create an entire soap opera.

As an article this month on Forbes.com noted, “In the espn.com pool, only two out of the 5.9 million entrants correctly picked the Final Four, one being an IT worker from New Jersey who admittedly knew nothing about college basketball and took just 10 minutes to fill out his selections.” The article goes on: “That’s why when the jocks in the office who watch hundreds of basketball games a year organize the office pools, they are always baffled when the secretary from accounting takes home the prize.” The article’s advice: “Want To Win Your NCAA Office Pool? Pick A Longshot To Make A Run.”

As for Rosner’s pick to win the NCAA championship this year, it’s Kentucky, seeded number one in its bracket. “But there is almost a truism here that the more you think about the business of sports, the worse you wind up doing in the basketball pool,” he says. “I’m not embarrassing myself as badly as I have in previous years, but I’m certainly not setting the world on fire by any metric. I have Kentucky winning, but half the free world does, too.”

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The Psychology of Holiday Gift Giving: The Good, the Bad, the Irrational

It’s that time of year again, when online and bricks-and-mortar retailers are bombarded with shoppers in a frenzy to find that perfect gift for family, friends and colleagues. Is it worth the effort? A waste of time? A misguided, inefficient allocation of resources?

Indeed, a Wall Street Journal article this weekend noted that many economists see the holidays “not as an occasion for joy but as a festival of irrationality, an orgy of wealth-destruction.” And Joel Waldfogel, a former Wharton professor now at the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota, has written a book – Scroogenomics – plus many articles arguing that Christmas gift giving is a “deadweight material loss.” Many people buy gifts that cost far more than the value the recipients assign to them, he suggests. The perfect gift? Cash, says Waldfogel, because the giver and the receiver value it in exactly the same way.

And yet Waldfogel is the first to admit that many people regard cash gifts as “lazy and even inconsiderate. They are offended by the idea that the giver didn’t make any effort to shop for them,” he notes in an earlier article for Knowledge@Wharton.

And thus enters those intangible aspects of gift giving that trip up rational economists and explain why consumers continue to spend so much time and money on the gift giving tradition. One reason, says Wharton operations and information professor Katherine Milkman, is “reciprocity. There is lots of evidence that people behave reciprocally towards one another, so gift giving can be seen as ‘rational’ even in the context of economics if you view it as a way of strengthening a tie to someone and generating the promise of future ‘gifts’ — in the form of friendship, social networking or other things of value — from them to you.”

In addition, says Milkman, “altruistic gift giving without any hope of reciprocity has been shown to make people happy: It generates what behavioral economists call a ‘warm glow.’  To the extent that giving to others brings us happiness in observing, or imagining, their reactions, it is certainly not irrational.” 

Wharton marketing professor Barbara Mellers points to several findings that she and fellow authors Philip Tetlock, a Wharton management professor, and Ilana Ritov are presenting in a paper currently under review titled, “Surprise and the Value of Gifts: Why Christmas Is Not a Deadweight Loss.”

Mellers and her co-authors suggest that Waldfogel’s analysis “sidesteps the issue of sentimental gains,” which, the researchers say, “overcome material losses.” Their paper includes a survey method that measures the total value of Christmas gifts, including “both sentimental and material benefits. We found no evidence of aggregate value squandering.” They did find that women got greater total value than men from gift giving, and that “givers who were more intimately tied to the recipient were, on average, able to add more value.”

What increases “sentimental value is surprise,” Mellers says, pointing to other conclusions from their paper. “Pleasure was greater for unexpected gifts. Surprising gifts amplified enjoyment for both large and small items.” In addition, sentimental value is increased by effort: “Recipients also felt positively toward givers who worked hard to find the right gift, even when that gift was off the mark.” Givers who make the effort, but don’t quite succeed, “should be heartened by the fact that recipients recognize the difference between process and outcome,” the researchers note. 

In their paper, Mellers and her co-authors note that people spend billions of dollars on gifts each year, especially at Christmas, “but it wasn’t always this way. The tradition of Christmas gift giving started in the Victorian era. Gifts were simple and modest expressions of kindness or charity. Gradually, the tradition transformed into the buying frenzy of today fueled, in part, by the firms and merchants who stood to benefit. Many Americans now view the holiday tradition as out of control.”

Critics of holiday gift giving certainly have a point. Along those lines, the Journal article offers some suggestions. Among them: Assuming your goal is to maximize a social connection, avoid “perishable gifts like flowers or chocolates.… For a durable impression, better to give a vase or a painting.” Perhaps best of all, the article says, give a gift that announces its existence every now and then, such as “an electric mixer which, when used, gets noticed.”

Worried that a painting may blow your holiday budget? If so, it might help to remember O’Henry’s short story, “The Gift of the Maji,” says Mellers. As described in her paper, it involves “a poor couple who give up their most treasured possessions to buy each other Christmas gifts. Della sells her long beautiful hair to buy Jim a chain for his watch, and Jim sells his gold watch to buy tortoise combs for Della’s hair. The gifts are complete deadweight economic losses with no material value to the recipients. But the sentimental gains are priceless. It is psychology — perhaps more than economics — that explains why the tradition has lasted so long. But it is economics — perhaps more than psychology — that explains why the message and the reality of deadweight losses resonate so clearly today.”

 

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The ‘Who’s Who’ of Thriving and Dying Industries

Two lists – the top 10 “thriving” and the top 10 “dying” industries — published in The Wall Street Journal, have caught some attention. The Santa Monica-based business information firm IBISWorld produced the lists, which rank industries by revenues and track growth or decline in the decade between 2000 and 2010.

In a web-driven world, it’s no surprise that VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) providers topped the list of “thriving” industries, which also features e-commerce and online auctions, along with Internet publishing and broadcasting. The study says VoIP providers grew combined revenues 194% to $12.5 billion between 2000 and 2010, and forecasts 17% growth through 2016. Other industries doing well include wind power, solar power and environmental consulting.

One surprise: “correctional facilities.” Explains the report: “Unfortunately, a growing population also increases the need for prison guards….” But Wharton management professor Lawrence G. Hrebiniak is stumped by that. “Are people getting into that much trouble, more than they’ve gotten into in the past?” he wonders. “Are we going to have more prisons and are more prison guards needed? I don’t think we need more prison guards.”

He also sees a glaring omission — banking. “Look at the investment banks with all the bailouts and frauds … and there has been no prosecution, virtually. In fact, banks can get away with anything. Talk about thriving.”

Oil and gas have also been thriving, including ExxonMobil and other oil majors. Mining, too, ought to be on that list, he argues, citing the looming shortages of uranium and rare earth minerals as examples, along with seemly endlessly rising gold prices. Some “vice” industries, also belong on the “thriving” list, such as tobacco and liquor, if the lists tracked global growth.

In any event, Hrebiniak thinks these lists are fun to toy around with, even if they don’t send investors on a frenzied rush to reshuffle their portfolios. If correctional facilities and prison guards are having boom times, he thinks there is good reason to include lawyers. “Where don’t lawyers now have their fingers in things?” Bankruptcy and foreclosure lawyers are thriving and lawyers are “making more money than they can shake a stick at.”

Hrebiniak isn’t so sure about environmental firms, solar power or wind power. “Is this just wishful thinking? Are they really thriving? People push wind power and solar power but nothing has really happened yet,” he says.

Hrebiniak doesn’t quarrel much with the Top 10 Dying Industries that Journal published in March. The list features wired telecommunications carriers; mills; newspaper publishing; apparel manufacturing; DVD, game & video rental; video postproduction services; record stores; and formal wear and costume rental.

Hrebiniak says one “industry” should be on both lists — politicians. “Politicians are hated,” he says, citing the travails of former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the just-resigned International Monetary Fund chief and French presidential hopeful Dominique Strauss-Kahn. “You can consider it a dying industry — who wants to be a politician today?” On the other hand, politicians are thriving, too, he says. “They are making lots of money, they are beyond the law, they don’t have to make any changes in Washington, and they just keep on thriving.”

 

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