Tag: Scott Rosner

Does NBC’s Olympic Coverage Deserve the Gold?

Now that the major controversies surrounding NBC’s coverage of the Olympics are old news – including the network’s decision to tape delay the opening ceremonies and many of the events – it’s a good time to look at who won and who lost during the airing of the games, what was done well and what could have been done better.

Wharton marketing professor Eric Bradlow, for example, suggests that because “we are in the super-information age, people want to see events when they happen.” He cites recent research showing that “even if you don’t know the outcome, but you know that others do … you enjoy it a lot less. I think this is what [happened] with NBC’s coverage.” Given that situation, NBC should consider reporting those outcomes “instead of pretending they are highly uncertain, and then give a more detailed analysis of what we saw.”

Another possibility is “segmentation. NBC could have two versions, one for people who have seen [the event] already, and another for those who have not.” He acknowledges this approach would increase the costs of coverage, but says it would “dramatically increase reach as well.”

Bradlow also notes the “over-saturation effects” of the coverage, starting with the “Today” show in the morning “where it’s all Olympics. I think it’s good that NBC has wisely become synonymous with the Olympics, but it’s almost too much.”

As for the sponsors, “I can’t remember one major [sponsor] from the Olympics other than Visa,” he notes. “Maybe there are others, but the length of the event leads to the diffusion of the message. This is very different than the Super Bowl.”

Scott Rosner, Wharton practice professor of legal studies and business ethics and associate director of the Wharton Sports Business Initiative, gives NBC credit for “not trying to reinvent the wheel” with their coverage. “It’s not a business in which you take a lot of risks, especially if you’re NBC and this is one of the few things you have going for you.” In addition, Rosner says, “you can’t argue with the ratings,” which have been high.

He points out that “there are very few things people congregate around in mass numbers, and most of those happen to be live sporting events.” What’s interesting about the Olympics is that “they aren’t being consumed in real time, but we are still watching the coverage. It’s more for the storylines than for the results.” This goes back to why this strategy works for NBC, Rosner says. “Think about what they are building their nights of programming around: swimming, beach volleyball, track and field – sports we would never care about if it weren’t the Olympics. Normally these sports get terrible ratings. But there is this sense of national pride. If there is one thing about Olympians, they have amazing stories. And NBC tells those stories well. Even if we know how [an event] ends, we want to know the means. That gives sports a competitive advantage over other industries: It is unscripted drama, and it is compelling television.”

But Rosner also suggests that in the storytelling arena, the network could have done an even better job. “They focused on the handful of athletes they thought would be a success,” even though “there were so many other unbelievable storylines.” So while it was good that the women’s soccer team got lots of attention, “the women’s basketball team didn’t, nor did the women’s water polo team.”

As for the initial criticism raging around Twitter over the tape delays, “my sense is that those criticisms subsided,” Rosner says. “The reality is that when you are NBC and you are paying billions for the rights to broadcast the games, you need to be able to monetize it. It’s a business. It was a business before Comcast [owner of NBC], and it’s a business now. Doing it in real time doesn’t allow you to monetize it because you aren’t in prime time. Who is going to watch?”

As for the sponsors, Rosner feels they have generally gotten their money’s worth, although “you will start to see some turnover if the prices keep going up…. The IOC [International Olympic Committee] is already going after Google and Facebook to be sponsors of” the games in Soshi, Russia, in 2014 and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2016.

Wharton marketing professor David Reibstein was in China for the first week of the Olympics. “Almost all I saw were events that China had won,” he says. “It gave me the impression that China had a huge lead in medals. I knew that wasn’t totally the case and figured the Chinese government was manipulating the coverage to give that impression and to build pride in the country. Then I returned for the second week to the U.S., and it was just the same — almost all the coverage this time was of the U.S. winning. I take it from this that … people like to see their country doing well, and the networks naturally cover what the people want to see. China watches every badminton and ping pong match and we watch track and field, volleyball and basketball.”

Reibstein also notes the positive influence social media had on the events. “Social media let the audience hear more from the athletes and ‘humanize’ them. Also, others were able to engage their friends on the events they liked. I have no doubt this was a big enhancement to the games.”

Looking ahead, Rosner suggests that NBC will have an easier time broadcasting the games in Rio because the time difference with New York is only one hour. It will be much harder in Soshi in two years, and in Pyeongchang, South Korea, in 2018. Already, he says, “the larger issue with the Olympics is the way people are changing how they consume TV and media in general. By 2018, who knows what will be happening?”

 

Featured Professors: ,
Posted in Knowledge@Wharton Today | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Sports by the Numbers: Predicting Winners and Losers

Over the past six weeks, Wharton statistics professor Abraham Wyner and several MBA students, along with Wharton practice professor of legal studies and business ethics Scott Rosner, studied data provided by ESPN to determine whether the amount of money that sports teams pay for their players can predict how well the team will perform. Here is what they found:

Surprisingly, among the major American professional sports, it is ice hockey for which performance is most predictable, given team salary data. In baseball, salary matters a lot, but there is still tremendous uncertainty as to predictability — i.e., teams that don’t spend a lot can actually win more games than teams that do. In football, how much a team spends on its players has very slight predictive power, due to a strong revenue sharing system and salary caps, among other reasons.

Basketball is not as easy to predict as hockey or baseball, but it’s easier than football. Again, such factors as individual coaches, strategies and combinations of teams and players can all influence outcomes. The fifth sport, European soccer, was by far the most predictable of the five. Based on data related to the European premier league, Wyner and his students concluded that the teams that spend the most money on players win year after year. “Not only do they win, but we know they are going to win,” says Wyner.

While his analysis of the five different sports is relevant to owners and managers of sports teams, it is not part of his statistical research, which focuses more on scientific fields. But one research area overlaps both business and science: data mining — the process of discovering patterns out of large data sets, or as Wyner describes it: “extracting gems from a mine full of stuff, some of it valuable and some of it not, and looking for patterns that you can apply to your business.”

Wyner doesn’t like the term “data mining,” because “it means that you don’t know what you are looking for.” In fact, many companies don’t. As has been widely noted over the past few years, businesses collect such a huge amount of data, often on their customers, that they are drowning in information they have no idea how to effectively use. The right approach, says Wyner, is for companies to ask themselves what kinds of problems they have and, then, what data is available to solve those problems. “Instead, companies tend to say, ‘Here is this data: What can we find in it that might help us solve this problem?’ The term ‘data mining’ is pejorative because it suggests that managers let the data drive the problem, instead of letting the problem drive the data analysis.”

Referring to his study of the five sports, Wyner says that the owners and managers of the teams “should rely on data to make business decisions — rather than let these decisions be driven by tradition, history, what was done last year, inertia, convention or custom.” Some of the conclusions he and his team reached in their analysis go against conventional wisdom. For example, “we found that, in baseball, spending money on pitching is far more effective than spending money on hitting,” Wyner notes. “Convention says that you spend more money on hitting because more of your players are hitters. But we found that you get a more productive dollar when it’s spent on pitching.”

In basketball, spending money on the centers and forwards was more productive than spending it on the guards. “Part of that could be due to salary caps,” says Wyner. “[Miami Heat pro guard] Lebron James gets the same salary as a good but not great guard because of a cap. But James is so much better than everyone else. So it’s hard to argue that spending money on a guard is going to be a good investment for a team that doesn’t have Lebron James.” In other words, teams should put their salary cap maximum on a center because they get more value than they would putting it on a guard.

In hockey and baseball, Wyner concludes that defense is a more productive investment than offense (pitching is considered defense). In football, however, Wyner and his team found no obvious value proposition. “We’re not sure why, except that maybe it’s because on-field performance is so unpredictable on a yearly basis. Coaching, and the entirety of the team, matter more than any individual player you can acquire, even a quarterback. The problem is, there are too many quarterbacks who are paid a lot of money who don’t do well. That distorts the statistical view.” Football teams are built to be on parity with one another, Wyner adds. “Whatever they are doing to make football competitive, it’s working. It’s good for the fans and the owners, probably not so great for the players.”

Everything that the research team has done for baseball “can be done for your company,” Wyner adds. “You just need to collect the data that drives your business and analyze it.”

In addition to research interests that include probabilistic modeling, information theory, data compression, boosting and temperature reconstructions, Wyner is a huge baseball fan, which explains the title of one of his co-authored papers: “Bayesball: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Evaluating Fielding in Major League Baseball.” For those who skipped statistics in school, Bayesian methodology integrates information from a number of different sources – in this case, knowledge of player distribution as well as historical data on all players, for example – to infer or predict the performance of one unit, in this case, the fielding ability of one player.

The article, according to its abstract, focuses on a relatively under-explored topic: “the use of statistical models for the analysis of fielding based on high-resolution data consisting of on-field location of batted balls.” The abstract notes that the authors – including, besides Wyner, Wharton statistics professor Shane T. Jensen and Kenneth E. Shirley, a statistics researcher at AT&T Labs — “combine spatial modeling with a hierarchical Bayesian structure in order to evaluate the performance of individual fielders while sharing information between fielders at each position.”

 

Featured Professors: ,
Posted in Knowledge@Wharton Today | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Financial Impact of March Madness Meltdowns

An article in today’s Wall Street Journal didn’t pull any punches. “Georgetown: The Monet of Choke Artists,” blared the headline, and the first paragraph didn’t exactly tone it down: “No school in America is becoming more synonymous with NCAA tournament letdowns than Georgetown.”

True, Georgetown has clocked three straight losses to teams that were seeded higher (meaning they are considered worse) than Georgetown, including Sunday’s upset in which North Carolina State, seeded 11th, squeaked by Georgetown, seeded third, by a score of 66 to 63.

Aside from being a sad moment for Georgetown fans, not to mention the team itself, do the losses have any financial impact on the school? According to Scott Rosner, Wharton practice professor of legal studies and business ethics, and academic director of the Wharton Sports Business Academy, “with a school like Georgetown, it’s not significant financially. The only way you might feel that is if you see decreased gate receipts the following season, if people stop going to the games as often or if fundraising is affected.” Rosner, who was faculty mentor to the University of Pennsylvania’s men’s basketball team from 2003 to 2009, doesn’t expect any of that to happen. “It’s really difficult to see a financial impact [from these recent NCAA losses] for a team that has a strong brand.”

The NCAA conference is paid per game and has a revenue sharing formula in place, “which really dilutes the impact of any one school’s performance on the amount of money received,” notes Rosner, adding that years ago, the system was based on dollars per win that went directly to the schools. But these days the money — much of it from TV contracts — goes “to the conference and is split among the teams.”

Georgetown’s recent record includes last year’s loss to Virginia  Commonwealth (seeded 11th), a loss to Ohio (seeded 14th) in 2010, and a loss in 2008 to Davidson (seeded 10th). In 2009, Georgetown wasn’t picked for the tournament.

Meanwhile, one of the rites of spring for sports fans is the office pool that kicks off just before the NCAA tournament begins and requires participants to make their best guess as to which teams will advance to the Final Four, and which one will go on to win the whole tournament. It’s always a drama-filled roller-coaster ride filled with unexpected winners and losers (witness Georgetown’s experience) and enough plot twists to create an entire soap opera.

As an article this month on Forbes.com noted, “In the espn.com pool, only two out of the 5.9 million entrants correctly picked the Final Four, one being an IT worker from New Jersey who admittedly knew nothing about college basketball and took just 10 minutes to fill out his selections.” The article goes on: “That’s why when the jocks in the office who watch hundreds of basketball games a year organize the office pools, they are always baffled when the secretary from accounting takes home the prize.” The article’s advice: “Want To Win Your NCAA Office Pool? Pick A Longshot To Make A Run.”

As for Rosner’s pick to win the NCAA championship this year, it’s Kentucky, seeded number one in its bracket. “But there is almost a truism here that the more you think about the business of sports, the worse you wind up doing in the basketball pool,” he says. “I’m not embarrassing myself as badly as I have in previous years, but I’m certainly not setting the world on fire by any metric. I have Kentucky winning, but half the free world does, too.”

Posted in Knowledge@Wharton Today | Also tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment