Tag: RetirementRetirement

Not Ready to Retire

828023.TIFThe American dream of working three or four decades and then retiring to a life of well-earned comfort is no longer an option for a surprisingly large number of workers.

According to a new report from The Conference Board titled, “Trapped on the Worker Treadmill,” people between the ages of 45 and 60 who have experienced a job loss, seen their salary reduced or watched the value of their home decline are “much more likely” to consider delaying retirement. More specifically, The Conference Board states, “of respondents aged 45-60, the percent that plans to delay retirement has gone up 20 percentage points in two years.”

This is despite a much-improved economy – including higher housing prices, an upswing in the stock market and increased hiring.

“It’s disconcerting that the two years in which the U.S. economy seemed to finally, if fitfully, turn the corner also left so many more workers compelled to change their retirement plans late in their careers,” says Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at The Conference Board and a co-author of the report, in a quote on the association’s website. “This may benefit some businesses and industries, by reducing labor shortages and skill gaps as experienced workers stick around. At the same time, their delaying retirement can be a significant obstacle to the many companies seeking to cut costs.”

A major factor contributing to the survey’s findings “is the continued depletion of savings,” according to The Conference Board website. “The U.S. recession officially ended in July 2009 and the stock market has rebounded strongly since then. In 2012, however, 62% of 45- to 60-year-olds reported at least a 20% decline in the value of their financial assets since the start of the crisis — up from 42% in 2010.”

“People are finally realizing that living to 120 (which the actuaries are forecasting) is going to be very, very expensive,” notes Olivia Mitchell, Wharton professor of business economics and public policy. “Accordingly, a few more years of work can provide the degrees of freedom many need to offset declines in housing values and 401(k) account balances. Also, medical care costs are going through the roof, which is enough to make many think twice about leaving jobs with health insurance coverage. And finally, the recent research suggests that working longer makes for healthier lives, which may be quite attractive to many.”

Kent Smetters, Wharton professor of business economics and public policy, agrees. “Probably only about a third of baby boomer households have an adequate amount of saving for retirement anyway,” he says. “Of course, part of the reason might be that many people have been out of the market and have not enjoyed recent stock returns. Another reason might be a general fear of risk. But one reason might simply be that as more people approach retirement, they are finally looking at the numbers and simply realizing that they never saved enough in the first place. Most have not.” 

Related to this, Smetters adds, is that “in the old days of 5% interest rates, people used to think that retiring with a million dollars was adequate, because they could safely get $50,000 per year without dipping into their principal. They now realize that they need a lot more since interest rates are so low.” 

Wharton management professor Matthew Bidwell wonders about one of the report’s numbers. “Hopefully, people who are 45 are not planning to retire imminently, so this is not necessarily a comment on their immediate situation, but rather it is tapping into a broader set of beliefs about how their lives will play out,” he says. “It may reflect a general erosion of trust in the ability of the current set-up, in terms of savings institutions and entitlements, to provide for them as they retire.” 

The report’s findings also raise the issue of whether more and more young people are being kept out of the job market – and delaying their own careers — because older people are hanging on longer. Not necessarily, says Bidwell. “I think economists would argue that people who are delaying retirement are doing so in order to earn, and spend, more money than they otherwise would be able to. That spending money ultimately creates jobs.” 

Adds Mitchell, who is also executive director of The Pension Research Council: “The idea that there is a fixed number of jobs has long been discounted by economists. Rather, the labor market tends to be very flexible, so the prediction is that more older workers will [likely] be absorbed relatively easily. In fact, in countries which encourage earlier retirement ostensibly to ‘make way’ for the younger folks, it proves to be very expensive to pay for all the retirement benefits. [Then] tax rates rise so much that it discourages younger employees from working.” 

Which industries are likely to benefit more than others from this trend of delayed retirement? “Probably the industries in which customer care matters – retail trade, service sector – where older employees tend to be more polite, patient and have better phone manners” than younger employees, says Mitchell.

 

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Social Security: Are We in Crisis Mode Yet?

“Social Security retirement benefits, we regularly hear, must be cut to solve the nation’s long-term budget deficit. This is triply wrongheaded.” So states an op-ed piece in the February 21 Philadelphia Inquirer written by Theodore R. Marmor, professor emeritus at the Yale School of Management, and Jerry Mashaw, a professor at Yale Law School.

Titled, “The Only Hoax Here Is the So-called Crisis: Social Security’s Critics Are Stoking Baseless Fears,” the article notes that Social Security has a $2.6 trillion surplus, that the real culprits behind the U.S. deficit problem are interest on the national debt and rising health care costs, and that the U.S. government can always increase the program’s revenues, if need be.

Opponents of Social Security, according to Marmor and Mashaw, say that the surplus in the program’s trust fund “is a ‘hoax.’ Because the trust fund holds U.S. Treasury bonds, these critics mock it as relying on mere pieces of paper, or ‘IOUs.’” Yet these bonds “are known in the world of finance as virtually riskless investments,” the authors argue.

Critics also describe Social Security as a Ponzi scheme in that retirees rely on benefit payments made by today’s workers, a formula that gets repeated on down the line, the authors note. But, they add, in a typical Bernard Madoff-type Ponzi scheme, the perpetrators “do not have taxing power. This Ponzi analogy defines any government program or contract that relies on future taxes as a fraud. That makes no sense.”

The Ponzi scheme reference might be apt, the authors note, “if it were politically impossible to increase Social Security’s long-term financial stability by raising revenues in the future.” But Americans “of every age, income group and political party would overwhelmingly prefer raising the taxes that support Social Security to reducing its benefits,” they say. Those who suggest that Social Security’s finances “are fictitious or unsustainable” are engaging in “nothing more than a scare tactic designed to tarnish America’s single most popular public program.”

Not so fast, responds Kent Smetters, Wharton professor of insurance and risk management. “Social Security’s looming shortfalls are unquestionable, and the authors are using some overly optimistic  arithmetic of their own,” he states.

Social Security has a deficit for the first time since 1983, says Smetters. “While it can draw down on the trust fund in a pure accounting sense, the key problem is that Congress already counted the trust fund surpluses in the past as part of their ‘unified’ deficit measure. In other words, Congress double counted surpluses, first toward a ‘trust fund’ and then, toward spending the same monies on Republican and Democrat initiatives. So that trust fund is not real savings for the government as a whole, which is what ultimately matters.” And while Social Security might not be a Ponzi game per se, “Congress does engage in Enron-like accounting.”   

Even if we allowed for Enron-like trust fund accounting, Social Security’s outlook is much worse than the authors say, according to Smetters. “In particular, suppose that we took the left-leaning approach and simply asked the question of how much would we have to increase payroll taxes  — no benefit cuts – to make sure that the trust fund is truly stabilized and never runs out of money. Suppose that we further assume that such higher taxes did not have any impact on the economy, contrary to empirical evidence. Then the independent Social Security Office of Actuary projects that we would need to increase payroll taxes immediately and forever by 3.3 percentage points. That’s a permanent 26% increase in payroll taxes being paid today. And, the longer we wait, the more difficult it will be.”

Smetters acknowledges that these projections rely on estimates about how the future will evolve. “The rational response to uncertainty, though, is not to ignore it, but to save even more. If the authors disagree, then I would recommend that they get a personal financial planner as soon as possible.”

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