Tag: Persian Gulf statesPersian Gulf states

Investing in Private Education in the Gulf

Investors in the Middle East looking to add to their regional portfolio may want to consider buying into a private education firm in Saudi Arabia. According to a new study by Booz & Company, paid annual tuition fees for private schools in the Arab Gulf will more than triple to almost US$17 billion by 2020.

Illustrating the draw of private educators in the region, former U.S. President Bill Clinton was in Dubai this week to launch the Varkey GEMS Foundation in Dubai, a philanthropic effort of GEMS Education chairman Sunny Varkey. Varkey is among the richest Indian expatriates in the Gulf, and his private school operation is considered the largest in the world.

The Booz report suggests that population increases and a lack of quality in government schools will push more students into the region’s private education sector, already one of the largest in the world. But more importantly, parents told researchers they would be willing to pay more for education.

“The overall operating environment for private schools does not yet attract local and international investors in sufficient scale to develop the market,” the report notes. “Some institutional investors have begun to express interest; however, thus far these players have been limited to private equity funds and others with existing connections in the region.”

The biggest opportunity in the Arab Gulf is the Saudi Arabian private education market, the Booz report says, as only 14% of students there are enrolled in private schools. The Kingdom is also investing in school construction as part of social spending programs resulting from the Arab Spring.

Other education consultancies have made similar analyses. According to Sammon Group, which builds educational construction projects, 6,200 schools will be needed across the region to accommodate its future student population. Another consultancy, The Parthenon Group, recently authored a report on investment opportunities in K-12 and higher education in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. They estimated investment opportunities in regional K-12 could near US$3.5 billion in 2012, and US$1.2 billion in the higher education sector.

“There is a clear trend toward private education and a preference for international and mixed curriculum schools because students choose education in English at both secondary and tertiary levels,” stated Karan Khemka, partner and head of the consultancy’s emerging markets practice, in a release.

Much focus has been paid to the effort to improve higher education in the Arab Gulf, as oil-rich countries splash out billions on bringing the biggest names from America and Europe to their countries. The UAE has funded the Sorbonne and New York University to set up campuses in Abu Dhabi, while Qatar has gathered well-known American universities, from Weill Cornell Medical College to Northwestern University, in an ‘Education City’ cluster inside its capital of Doha. (Arabic Knowledge@Wharton is based in Abu Dhabi, in facilities provided through a partnership between the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school and CERT, Abu Dhabi’s Center of Excellence for Applied Research and Training.)

According to a report by the Institute of International Education and the Lebanese Association for Educational Studies, there are now 7.6 million higher education students in the region, up from 2.9 million a decade ago. In that same period, the number of universities in the region grew from 174 to 467 today.

But would-be education investors should pay heed to the failures in private education that have already happened in the Gulf. Virginia’s George Mason University shuttered its campus in 2009 when it didn’t reach enrollment targets, and Michigan State soon after closed most of its Dubai satellite campus after losing millions.

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Arab Stock Markets Hope for Better Fortunes

Stock markets in the Middle East have taken a financial beating because of Arab Spring protests this year. Since crowds flooded Cairo’s Tahrir Square, Egypt’s EGX 30 Index has lost almost 45% of its value; Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All-Share Index has lost nearly 10%, while the Dubai Financial Market General Index has fallen by nearly 20%.

Arab exchanges were already weak because of the effects of the 2008 financial crisis, which exposed issues with sovereign debt in the Arab Gulf. Only two IPOs this year were listed in the exchanges of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman). Both were in Saudi Arabia, and generated $219 million, according to PwC Capital Markets Middle East.

But adding further injury, a much anticipated bid to upgrade the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to ‘Emerging Markets’ status by index compiler MSCI was thwarted again this past week. Currently both countries are part of MSCI’s Frontier Markets index; analysts say an upgrade would’ve channeled up to US$70 billion into Gulf markets.

MSCI has twice previously put off a decision about upgrading the status of both countries. It said it would look at the issue again in June, but noted that concerns remain about foreign ownership limits, market liquidity, securities lending and limitations on short-selling.

It is expected that the UAE won’t be ready for another review in June, but it continues to push for reform on its exchanges. Last July, the Dubai exchange consolidated with Nasdaq Dubai, the region’s first exchange open to investors and issuers of any nationality. Investors are now hoping for a merger of Dubai’s exchange and that of Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital. Earlier this month, Standard & Poor’s announced it would launch an index comprised of the Arab world’s 40 blue chip companies, in a bid to open the market more to exchange-traded funds.

The World Bank is bearish on immediate prospects for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, particularly Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. “Foreign direct investment flows [to the region] fell by 7% in 2010 and by another 16% in 2011,” notes a new report on world investment and political risk. “Despite recent announcements of investment intentions in North Africa by other countries in MENA, short-term prospects are not promising. With Europe under economic strain and uncertainties surrounding the political environment of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, FDI into North Africa is likely to slump for longer and rebound more slowly than the rest of the MENA region.”

The report also notes that though some investors are pulling out of the region or placing plans on hold, recovery should begin in 2013. “Despite the recent turmoil, the longer-term outlook for the region remains promising and companies do not view the present unrest as posing a long-term barrier to doing business in that region.”

Considering the effect the Arab Spring has had on protests around the globe, the World Bank report adds that as an offshoot, “the recent events in the MENA region have accentuated the risks of political violence and non-honoring of sovereign financial obligations — not only in that region, but also more broadly.”

See also: The Gulf’s Stock Exchanges: Regaining Investor Confidence on a Rocky Road to Reform

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To Stave Off Arab Spring Revolts, Saudi Arabia and Fellow Gulf Countries Spend $150 Billion

Possessing 20% of the world’s proven petroleum reserves, Saudi Arabia has long played the expected role of benefactor among its fellow Arab and Muslim countries. With a total aid budget of $3.1 billion in 2009, Saudi Arabia keeps one of the largest humanitarian aid funds in the world.

Much of that aid went to hardship-struck Muslim nations, including Pakistan, Somalia and the Palestinians. But since the Arab Spring took root this year, Saudi Arabia has spread its largesse among its own citizens and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) neighbors — a large part of $150 billion worth of social welfare spending in the region since the unrest began, according to a new report by Merrill Lynch Bank of America.

Only days following the collapse of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak’s regime in February, for instance, Saudi Arabia announced a social welfare package for its citizens worth $10.7 billion, featuring pay raises for government employees, new jobs and loan forgiveness schemes. By the end of the month, the handouts totaled $37 billion. In March, the trend continued, as Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah heralded an additional $93 billion in social spending.

Such generosity was no coincidence, noted the Merrill Lynch Bank of America report’s authors. “The initial response of GCC policymakers [to the Arab revolt] has been to sharply increase current spending to accommodate social pressures and to pledge intra-regional fiscal transfers to less endowed members,” wrote Jean-Michel Saliba, Middle East and North Africa economist for the firm.

In addition to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) capital of Abu Dhabi put forward plans to spend nearly $2 billion to provide housing loans to Emiratis, while Qatar announced this month an $8 billion payout in wage, salary and benefits increases for all state and military personnel. Oman and Bahrain have also indicated they would increase social spending by the billions this year.

Aside from raises for state employees, the spending in these Gulf states will go toward infrastructure and social amenities, such as roads, schools and hospitals, and further subsidies on food, water and power consumption for citizens.

Saliba and his colleagues cautioned that the outsized spending did not address the long-term nature of the problems presented by the Arab Spring, such as high unemployment. “This [social spending] has averted potential disquiet over governance in most countries, though, over a longer-term horizon, economic reforms will be needed to buoy private sector growth and job creation.”

Saudi Arabia’s generosity has been criticized as a means for the Arab world’s most populous country to make political gains and spread influence. The Merrill Lynch report also does not take into account the cost incurred by Saudi Arabia to send its troops into neighboring Bahrain to help quell a Shiite uprising there — another action to prevent revolt from reaching its own borders.

But in a recent analysis of the Arab Spring for Arabic Knowledge@Wharton, Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Stuart Diamond said the spending by the Saudis demonstrated their understanding of negotiation. “They understood that for many people, it was about Maslow’s [hierarchy of] needs triangle: that is, basic life necessities such as food, shelter and health mattered most. So the stipends that the Saudi government gave helped to quell disturbances,” he noted.

Diamond added that Saudi spending bought not only continued loyalty from its citizens. “What they have mostly bought was time. For now, the populace will be satisfied with their recent bonuses. But that does not amount to structural and sustainable change, the kind that would significantly improve everyone’s quality of life on a continuing basis. The Saudi government should take this opportunity to include more people in decision-making and develop new industries that give more people a chance at a better life over the long term.”

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