Tag: Olivia Mitchell

Not Ready to Retire

828023.TIFThe American dream of working three or four decades and then retiring to a life of well-earned comfort is no longer an option for a surprisingly large number of workers.

According to a new report from The Conference Board titled, “Trapped on the Worker Treadmill,” people between the ages of 45 and 60 who have experienced a job loss, seen their salary reduced or watched the value of their home decline are “much more likely” to consider delaying retirement. More specifically, The Conference Board states, “of respondents aged 45-60, the percent that plans to delay retirement has gone up 20 percentage points in two years.”

This is despite a much-improved economy – including higher housing prices, an upswing in the stock market and increased hiring.

“It’s disconcerting that the two years in which the U.S. economy seemed to finally, if fitfully, turn the corner also left so many more workers compelled to change their retirement plans late in their careers,” says Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at The Conference Board and a co-author of the report, in a quote on the association’s website. “This may benefit some businesses and industries, by reducing labor shortages and skill gaps as experienced workers stick around. At the same time, their delaying retirement can be a significant obstacle to the many companies seeking to cut costs.”

A major factor contributing to the survey’s findings “is the continued depletion of savings,” according to The Conference Board website. “The U.S. recession officially ended in July 2009 and the stock market has rebounded strongly since then. In 2012, however, 62% of 45- to 60-year-olds reported at least a 20% decline in the value of their financial assets since the start of the crisis — up from 42% in 2010.”

“People are finally realizing that living to 120 (which the actuaries are forecasting) is going to be very, very expensive,” notes Olivia Mitchell, Wharton professor of business economics and public policy. “Accordingly, a few more years of work can provide the degrees of freedom many need to offset declines in housing values and 401(k) account balances. Also, medical care costs are going through the roof, which is enough to make many think twice about leaving jobs with health insurance coverage. And finally, the recent research suggests that working longer makes for healthier lives, which may be quite attractive to many.”

Kent Smetters, Wharton professor of business economics and public policy, agrees. “Probably only about a third of baby boomer households have an adequate amount of saving for retirement anyway,” he says. “Of course, part of the reason might be that many people have been out of the market and have not enjoyed recent stock returns. Another reason might be a general fear of risk. But one reason might simply be that as more people approach retirement, they are finally looking at the numbers and simply realizing that they never saved enough in the first place. Most have not.” 

Related to this, Smetters adds, is that “in the old days of 5% interest rates, people used to think that retiring with a million dollars was adequate, because they could safely get $50,000 per year without dipping into their principal. They now realize that they need a lot more since interest rates are so low.” 

Wharton management professor Matthew Bidwell wonders about one of the report’s numbers. “Hopefully, people who are 45 are not planning to retire imminently, so this is not necessarily a comment on their immediate situation, but rather it is tapping into a broader set of beliefs about how their lives will play out,” he says. “It may reflect a general erosion of trust in the ability of the current set-up, in terms of savings institutions and entitlements, to provide for them as they retire.” 

The report’s findings also raise the issue of whether more and more young people are being kept out of the job market – and delaying their own careers — because older people are hanging on longer. Not necessarily, says Bidwell. “I think economists would argue that people who are delaying retirement are doing so in order to earn, and spend, more money than they otherwise would be able to. That spending money ultimately creates jobs.” 

Adds Mitchell, who is also executive director of The Pension Research Council: “The idea that there is a fixed number of jobs has long been discounted by economists. Rather, the labor market tends to be very flexible, so the prediction is that more older workers will [likely] be absorbed relatively easily. In fact, in countries which encourage earlier retirement ostensibly to ‘make way’ for the younger folks, it proves to be very expensive to pay for all the retirement benefits. [Then] tax rates rise so much that it discourages younger employees from working.” 

Which industries are likely to benefit more than others from this trend of delayed retirement? “Probably the industries in which customer care matters – retail trade, service sector – where older employees tend to be more polite, patient and have better phone manners” than younger employees, says Mitchell.

 

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Inaugural Speech, Part II

When President Obama delivered his first inaugural address four years ago, he was speaking to a nation mired in two wars and facing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Yesterday, his second inaugural address focused less on economic issues and foreign policy, and more on social issues, ranging from gay rights to global warming to gun control.

He made clear his intention to help the middle class, including strong resistance to cutting entitlement programs – Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. As an article in The Washington Post noted, “He embraced more clearly than he has in the past a liberal view of government activism” – which includes protecting policies and programs that “have reflected essential Democratic priorities for generations of voters.”

Obama’s tone suggested more partisanship and less willingness to compromise with Republicans during what will likely be a hard-fought effort to pass his agenda before leaving the presidency for good in four years.

Obama’s address has inspired a variety of reactions, depending on individual perspectives. For example, “as an economist focused on policy,” says Olivia Mitchell, Wharton professor of business economics and public policy, “I thought this was a key section: ‘We recognize that no matter how responsibly we live our lives, any one of us, at any time, may face a job loss, or a sudden illness, or a home swept away in a terrible storm. The commitments we make to each other – through Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security – these things do not sap our initiative; they strengthen us.’”

This statement, notes Mitchell, “emphasized only the benefits of social protection. But the President never acknowledged many programs’ negative influences on a variety of important economic outcomes. For instance, research has confirmed that the Medicaid program discourages most people from taking steps to save and insure against long-term care expenses. The structure of the Social Security program discourages private saving, and the program’s impending insolvency threatens retirement security for millions. The Disability Insurance program has made deep inroads into the nation’s labor market. Higher tax rates discourage people from working and encourage early retirement. In sum, I would have liked to have seen the President indicate his awareness of these counterbalancing factors.”

Wharton professor of health care management Mark V. Pauly says he was “a little disappointed in the treatment of health care and the Medicare and Medicaid programs. The President seems to want to defend them not only as programs that will provide benefits to those who need help, but to protect them from privatization of any sort.”

While that is a legitimate viewpoint, Pauly adds, “it seems more limiting than need be, though obviously congenial to the liberal base. [Obama] did imply he was going to control Medicare cost without recourse to any of the alternatives favored by his opponents. I don’t know how that can be done. We can hope and pray for lower rates of spending growth, but we still search for mechanisms that can bring it about without doing more harm than good.” At this point, Pauly adds, “I do not know of any magic in the pipeline of either party.”

Obama also emphasized the importance of all citizens participating in efforts to support his second-term agenda. Along those lines, he has endorsed the establishment of a nonprofit group called Organizing for Action, which will focus on reform in such areas as immigration and gun control.

One of the most oft-cited sections of Obama’s inaugural address was his comments on equal rights for women, African Americans and the LBGT community. “We, the people, declare today that the most evident of truths – that all of us are created equal – is the star that guides us still, just as it guided our forebears through Seneca Falls and Selma and Stonewall…. It is now our generation’s task to carry on what those pioneers began. For our journey is not complete until our wives, our mothers and daughters can earn a living equal to their efforts … until our gay brothers and sisters are treated like anyone else under the law – for if we are truly created equal, then surely the love we commit to one another must be equal as well. Our journey is not complete until no citizen is forced to wait for hours to exercise the right to vote….”

In comments directed to a large majority of Americans, Obama also noted that “our country cannot succeed when a shrinking few do very well and a growing many barely make it…. We are true to our creed when a little girl born into the bleakest poverty knows that she has the same chance to succeed as anybody else, because she is an American, she is free and she is equal, not just in the eyes of God, but also in our own.”

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Retirement Heist? Pensions, Past and Present

In a book published last Thursday, Retirement Heist: How Companies Plunder and Profit from the Nest Eggs of American Workers, Ellen Schultz, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, analyzes how large companies — along with the whole retirement industry, ranging from benefits consultants to life insurers — have been bilking American workers out of the health benefits and pensions they have earned during years of employment.

“A little over a decade ago, most companies had more than enough set aside to pay the benefits earned by two generations of workers, no matter how long they lived. But by exploiting loopholes, ambiguous regulations and new accounting rules, companies essentially turned their pension plans into piggy banks, tax shelters and profit centers,” according to a description of the book on Amazon.com, which goes on to note that the damage isn’t limited to any one group: “Employees of all political persuasions and income levels — from managers to miners, pro-football players to pilots — have been slammed.”

Olivia S. Mitchell, executive director of Wharton’s Pension Research Council, notes that “during the 1980s, many corporations benefitted from the run-up in the stock market, and prominent firms, A&P being one, terminated their defined benefit plan, took the excess assets and ended up plowing them back into the company to upgrade the stores. A&P was the one that got a lot of attention because it was in conjunction with its purchase by a German supermarket chain. So there was a lot of discussion over whether this should be allowed.”

U.S. law, Mitchell says, “still permits some asset reversion of this type, although there are now penalties associated with overfunded termination. This naturally has really put a damper on reversion of excess assets. Also, most defined benefits plans are now underfunded.”

Even more important, Mitchell notes, has been the fairly rapid transition away from defined benefit plans toward 401(k) plans, partly because of a massive change in the labor market. “Employees come, stay for a short time and leave, and they are frankly not interested in a defined benefit plan with a 30-year to 40-year time horizon.” At the same time, many employers, like IBM, are also not interested in the defined benefit model. “They want turnover so they can get the newest, most frontier-trained engineers and software experts available.”

Kent Smetters, Wharton professor of business and public policy, agrees that “many of the changes in the private plans have reflected shifts away from defined benefit (pension) plans to defined contribution plans as a way to support greater mobility of the workforce. Traditional pensions are mainly compatible with jobs where people work at the same employer for most of their work life. They are hard to transport between jobs. The defined contribution model allows for that [rollover]. It is true that some companies potentially reduced benefits in the transition as they directly converted their defined benefit to defined contribution plans. But many of those conversions were ruled illegal or frozen.”

Most companies, he adds, “simply keep the defined benefit plan open for existing workers covered by that plan and require new workers to use the defined contribution plan. The employer then usually makes some contribution to the defined contribution account, either as a match and/or straight (unmatched) contribution. In fact, non-discrimination IRS rules for qualified plans heavily encourage employers to contribute to the defined contribution plans in order to ensure enough participation by less compensated individuals.”

Asked about the conclusions presented by Schultz’s book, Smetters suggests that “the largely unregulated state and local public pension plans played lots of games. The real wholesale shame here [has been] with those plans, not the private ones.”

Another factor to consider in this discussion, says Mitchell, is that the U.S. government backs defined benefit plans through its own insurance agency, The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. PBGC “charges a premium, which has had to be boosted because of the underfunded status of American defined benefit plans. It is a vicious circle. If you have a plan and you are underfunded, then the plan is backed by the government insurance company, so there is relatively little incentive to fund it. And if you are thinking about starting a new defined benefit plan, heaven forbid you should take on the legacy costs that all the other companies are likely to impose on this insurance entity.” In fact, these days only very small employers — those with 20 or 25 employees, typically law firms, medical partnerships, etc. — have defined benefit plans because such companies are not required to pay into PBGC.

In Retirement Heist, author Schultz documents hardship stories of individuals who were denied the retirement benefits promised to them by their corporate employers. These cases might typically be ones “where companies have underfunded pensions, and the government only provides a basic guarantee,” says Mitchell, adding that these guarantees are hardly “six figure pension payments. I remember during the mid-1990s when one of the airlines went bankrupt, and its pilots were expecting $120,000 or $130,000 in corporate pension benefits. It turned out that the maximum benefit that PBGC would pay them was about $25,000.”

What has Mitchell and many others worried is that neither Social Security nor Medicare are in good financial shape, even though both are the cornerstones of retirement security. “The lack of attention at the federal level to fixing them is a grievous situation,” says Mitchell. “The current jobs proposal has a continued reduction in the payroll tax, in fact a greater reduction than was implemented last December. While I can understand the impetus for a stimulus, this does hasten the day when both programs run short of money.”

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