Tag: Labor

Budget Battle in Wisconsin

On Thursday, demonstrators thronged the state capitol building in Madison, Wis., aiming to block the passage of emergency legislation that would reduce collective bargaining powers for state and local employees and would require them to contribute significantly more to pensions and health care. The legislation is being pushed through by Republicans, led by Governor Scott Walker, in an effort to solve the state’s growing budget crisis. The state’s Democratic lawmakers have fought back — by literally disappearing before the vote, causing the bill to go into limbo for the time being. 

According to The Washington Post, state workers would need to cover half of their pension costs and 12% of their health care expenses under Walker’s proposal. The goal is to save $300 million over the next two years as a means of addressing the state’s $3.6 billion deficit.

Across the country, states will reach a collective budget deficit of $175 billion by the end of 2013, the Post adds. But tampering with public worker benefits may not be the best way out of that mess, Wharton faculty recently told Knowledge@Wharton.  In many states, employees’ rights are written into the constitution, Wharton professor of insurance and risk management Olivia S. Mitchell said. Not only does that protect benefits that have already been earned, but in some cases the constitution defines the future benefit-accrual rate for all current employees. “As soon as you are hired, the promise of that benefit formula — the buildup of benefits in the future — is guaranteed.” According to University of Pennsylvania law professor David Skeel, “As a matter of realpolitik, the most a state would be able to do is possibly to change its pension promises to future employees.”

One possible way to renegotiate public-worker contracts would be to allow states to declare bankruptcy, Skeel and other experts say. But that path is riddled with potential problems — not the least of which is a possible undermining of the already shaky municipal bond market. (To read more about the potential fallout of state bankruptcies, see: Budget Blues: What Would State Bankruptcies Accomplish?)

Meanwhile, back in Wisconsin, the search for Democratic lawmakers continues.

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An Early Spring for the Job Market?

Maybe the fact that Punxsutawney Phil — the groundhog named after a town in Pennsylvania — didn’t see his shadow this year points to another kind of early thaw: in the job market. According to the government’s data released today, unemployment now stands at 9% — down by .4 percentage points for the second month in a row.

The total number of unemployed workers in the U.S. is now 13.9 million, compared with 14.5 million in December. Meanwhile, non-farm payroll employment had a net gain of 36,000 jobs, the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics said. Employment was higher in January in manufacturing (49,000 new jobs) and in retail, which added 28,000 jobs — 15,000 of which were at clothing stores. The Bureau’s press release noted that health care employment “continued to trend up” during the month, although not as robustly as before: The sector added 11,000 new jobs in January, whereas it had averaged 22,000 during the previous 12 months.

But is the outlook as positive as it seems? According to Wharton management professor Peter Cappelli, the recent figures only tell part of the story. “I don’t think this is good news. The economy added only 36,000 net jobs, while population growth adds about 140,000 potential workers in the same period. The reason the unemployment rate went down, therefore, is only because more people gave up looking and are no longer counted as ‘unemployed.’”

Matthew Bidwell, also a Wharton management professor, says he would be reluctant to read too much into one month’s employment figures, “particularly when different data sources point in different directions. The payroll numbers are disappointing, and the overall employment/population figures only grew by .1%, which is not indicative of a strong movement of people back into the workforce. Both of those suggest that the labor market may not be improving that rapidly. On the other hand, other figures — such as the manufacturers’ index — have been strong in recent days. Across the board, there are probably grounds for cautious optimism.”

As for job losses last month, construction (32,000) and transportation and warehousing (38,000) were hit the hardest. The Bureau speculates that the unusually harsh winter weather in much of the country may be to blame for the decline in construction jobs. If that’s true, perhaps it’s a good thing Phil didn’t see his shadow.

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