Tag: IBM

What’s Behind Buffett’s IBM Buy?

On Monday, Warren Buffett surprised the investment community by announcing during an interview with CNBC that his company, Berkshire Hathaway, now owns $10.7 billion worth of IBM stock — a whopping 5.4% stake. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the company has been acquiring the stock slowly since March.

IBM has been doing well: According to the Journal, “IBM shares have surged 28% this year, outdoing a flat showing in the Standard & Poor’s 500 broad-market index and making the company the fourth-biggest U.S. firm by market capitalization, after Exxon Mobil Corp., Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp.”

However, Buffett has famously shunned technology stocks in his investment strategy, leading many analysts to question what he sees in IBM that sets it apart from the rest of the pack. According to CNN Money.com, during his televised interview, Buffett “complimented [former IBM CEO] Lou Gerstner for picking IBM up off the ground, setting it on a growth path, and ultimately picking a first-class successor, Sam Palmisano, who became CEO in 2002.” Buffett also noted that Palmisano had moved the company forward “with a stated, publicized plan and met every objective [and] ‘delivered big-time.’”

In a recent KnowledgeToday post about the appointment of Virginia Rometty as IBM’s new CEO, effective January 1, 2012, several Wharton faculty noted that Rometty is an extremely capable manager and a worthy successor to Palmisano. They also noted IBM’s particular strengths, including its market-driven approach, its established presence in BRIC countries and its innovative focus on business solutions — a strategy that “is sound and hard to copy,” according to Wharton marketing professor George S. Day.

Overall, it is difficult “for a company like Berkshire Hathaway not to have exposure to the technology sector, given the sector’s importance to the economy,” notes Wharton management professor David Hsu. “I think Buffett probably evaluated several possibilities in the technology domain before selecting IBM.”

According to Hsu, “IBM has been well managed, and has done an admirable job remaking itself and shifting to the service space. Its timely divestiture of computer hardware — as compared to HP, for example — is especially notable.”

Simultaneously, Hsu adds, for quite some time IBM has been one of the “world-wide innovation leaders, as measured by patent grants, and investors in R&D, as compared to Dell, for example. The end result is that IBM is valued more now than it has ever been. Clearly, Buffett sees more upside in the coming years for IBM.”

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Inside Job: Changing of the Guard at IBM

It came as no surprise to many when IBM announced yesterday that Virginia Rometty, a senior vice president with expertise in sales, marketing and strategy, will replace Samuel Palmisano as CEO in early 2012. Although Rometty is not a household name outside of IBM, those in the technology industry speak highly of her management skills — a capability she will need in the challenging years ahead.   

As Wharton management professor Michael Useem puts it: “IBM, under her leadership, will no doubt have to reinvent itself yet again during the coming decade” in much the same way it did under Palmisano during the 2000s and under former IBM CEO Louis Gerstner during the 1990s. Rometty is likely up to the task, Useem adds. “Presumably, she has been very well mentored and developed as an inside candidate. Hewitt Associates and Fortune rank ‘the world’s best companies for leaders’ every two years, and IBM ranked number one in 2009, the last available ranking. Rometty is a product of IBM’s leadership engine.”  

The challenges ahead for Rometty, 54, who has been with IBM for 30 years, are huge. The company has 400,000 employees and more than $100 billion in revenues. While making sure that earnings from existing lines of business continue to rise, “she also has to ensure that the company “is building the new and innovative lines that will increasingly come to define it in the years ahead,” says Useem, who is director of Wharton’s Center for Leadership and Change Management. On the global front, “virtually all major U.S. companies are seeking to expand their offerings and presence in the BRIC [countries], and IBM had led the way here, too. More than a quarter of its employees, for instance, are now based in India, and the number may soon exceed 150,000. Rometty no doubt will build on IBM’s existing strength in China, India and elsewhere to continue the company’s globalization.”

According to Wharton management professor David Hsu, “providing business services and data analytics is getting to be a more competitive space, as many of IBM’s peers have been reorienting themselves to compete in these domains. Given the quick pace of information technology evolution as it relates to business services, Rometty will [need to] recognize and respond to external threats and opportunities in these markets…. Moreover, since Palmisano is handing off management responsibilities at a time when IBM has been doing relatively well, Rometty may face resistance in deviating too much from the status quo. Hopefully this does not constrain her in exercising bold leadership should the opportunities arise.”

Serving the global marketplace was an important part of her prior role in sales and marketing, Hsu adds, and he expects this to continue being a priority in her new role as well. “There can be a virtuous cycle of leadership in research and development and in commercialization of products and services. If IBM can serve more growing markets and interact with varied customers to meet their needs, it will be easier to fund ongoing R&D, which in turn will allow the company to successfully compete in the global marketplace.”

Rometty’s appointment puts her in an elite category of women running major corporations, a group that includes the CEOs of Xerox, DuPont, PepsiCo and, most recently, Hewlett-Packard, which appointed former eBay CEO Meg Whitman to the top job in September. Press reports on Rometty’s new role cite several of her major accomplishments, including her push to purchase PricewaterhouseCoopers Consulting in 2002 — a move that paid off despite the challenges of integrating two very diverse organizations — and her experience in sales and managing client relationships.

Wharton management professor Lawrence G. Hrebiniak clearly approves of the appointment. “Rometty rocks!” he says. “She certainly deserves the job. This has nothing to do with gender: Her performance speaks for itself. She led the growth of IBM as a global services company and as a force serving 170 global markets. She’s not well known outside of the technology arena, but this means nothing. IBM almost always chooses its leaders from within based on performance and potential, not on external name recognition, and her track record makes her most deserving of the high post.”

Hrebiniak sees Rometty’s main challenges as “continuing IBM’s growth in the face of increasing competition. Maintaining momentum is key. IBM has the resources and capabilities to grow; the question is where will these resources be focused. Logically, given Rometty’s past experiences in sales and marketing, this focus should be global, with eyes on growth areas in China, Brazil and India.”

Wharton marketing professor George S. Day suggests that “given the strength of the current strategy, it was wise to pick a respected insider – in contrast to the missteps by HP. I doubt that Rometty will have board issues. Her challenges are to keep growing globally, keep good people and maintain a market-driven culture. Their solutions strategy is sound and hard to copy.”

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HP’s Exit from the PC Business: Bold Move or Too Little, Too Late?

Last week, Hewlett-Packard shocked the technology industry by announcing that it is evaluating a move to exit the PC business, is discontinuing its TouchPad tablet and is buying Autonomy, an information management software company, for $10 billion. On the surface, the moves look logical, but experts at Wharton say significant questions remain about whether HP CEO Leo Apotheker can reinvent the company.

On HP’s fiscal third quarter conference call, Apotheker said the company’s changes “will transform HP and accelerate the strategy we have laid out,” adding that “the transformation starts today. Decisive steps are never easy, and change doesn’t happen overnight. As CEO, I am steadfast in my commitment to take action to do the right things to drive value for our shareholders and assure a sustainable future for this great company.”

Apotheker’s comments were delivered on Thursday. On Friday, HP shares fell 20%. Over the weekend, HP held a liquidation sale for its inventory of the TouchPad, a product that has been on the market for seven weeks. The 16GB version of the TouchPad — originally priced at $499 — went for $99 in HP’s fire sale. HP’s TouchPad inventory was sold out as of Monday morning.

According to Wharton faculty, leaving the PC business is a good move in the long run; it is marred by intense competition, low profit margins and the popularity of tablets such as Apple’s iPad. In fact, Wharton management professor Dan Levinthal says that HP should have exited the PC business years ago. IBM sold its PC unit to Lenovo in 2005. Instead, HP doubled down on PCs and completed its Compaq purchase in 2002. Before Apotheker, HP CEOs Mark Hurd and Carly Fiorina saw PCs as a valuable part of the company’s product portfolio. 

“I view this as another act in the longstanding ‘drama’ of HP’s efforts in the PC industry,” says Levinthal. “HP had its roots as a maker of instruments for scientists and engineers. It found itself in consumer products with its early involvement in multi-function electronic calculators. That involvement in the consumer arena, in conjunction with HP’s technological powers and … the tremendous growth in demand for PCs in the early days, made HP think personal computers were a good idea.”

HP’s false confidence in the PC market continued after IBM left. “Once Compaq was acquired and IBM pulled out, HP had some distinctive presence in retail channels but very thin margins,” Levinthal notes. “I agree with the current decision, but regret for HP that it wasn’t made 10 years ago.”

Wharton management professor Lawrence Hrebiniak says that HP’s move to exit the PC business is “a bit shocking, but not totally unexpected…. PCs have become a commodity product with extremely low margins, despite their revenue generation.” Apotheker, the former CEO of SAP, is moving to turn HP into more of a software, consulting and technology services company much like IBM, Hrebiniak notes.

Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst with investment firm Alliance Bernstein, said in a research note that Apotheker’s moves are questionable, adding that activist investors may push HP to break itself up. “While it is prudent and encouraging that HP is exploring strategic options for its PC business, we believe that the decision to publicly announce its intention to do so risks creating customer hesitancy and potentially undermines the business in the interim, and [it benefits] PC competitors such as Dell,” Sacconaghi wrote.

The months ahead are likely to be highly uncertain. Apotheker said it will take 12 to 18 months to spin off or sell HP’s PC unit. Wall Street analysts expect that competitors such as Dell will pounce and grab market share. Dell CEO Michael Dell was taunting HP on Twitter just before Apotheker’s conference call.

“HP strikes me as a bit of a lost soul,” says Levinthal. “[HP is] now retrenching from the consumer space and has made massive investments to become a competitor with IBM and Oracle on providing computer services to corporate customers. But what is [HP's] basis for competitive advantage against these two formable [companies]?”

According to Levinthal, HP is making a key strategy error in trying to replicate competitors’ positioning instead of carving out a distinctive niche.

Hrebiniak largely agrees. He questions whether HP can compete with IBM and find a buyer for its PC division. In addition, the fate of HP’s printer business will be unclear once the PC unit is separated. IBM shed its printer business in 1991. That unit became Lexmark. “Apotheker is engineering a sea change at HP,” says Hrebiniak. “Implementation of the change won’t be easy. I wish him luck — he will need it.”

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What’s Jeopardy to Watson? It’s Elementary, Perhaps…

As chess fans will remember, in May 1997 Garry Kasparov, then the world’s reigning champion, lost a tournament to Deep Blue, a computer designed by IBM. The contenders went head-to-head for six games, of which Deep Blue won two, Kasparov won one, and three ended in a draw. As fascinated crowds around the world followed the contest, it felt as though science fiction had come alive: a so-called thinking machine beating the world’s best player at his own game. After his defeat, Kasparov demanded a re-match but IBM refused and dismantled Deep Blue.

Playing chess requires a certain type of intelligence – the ability to predict a series of logical moves that result in certain outcomes. Computers and their humble cousins, calculators, have long been able to perform such computations. Computers are said to be notoriously dumb, though, at figuring out natural language that involves understanding nuances or interpreting ambiguity involving puns or wordplay. But are they? Or has artificial intelligence – which some researchers define as “the study of how to make computers do things at which, for the moment, people are better” – evolved to a point where computers can outsmart humans at such tasks, too? That is the premise being tested this week in New York as Watson, an IBM supercomputer named after company founder Thomas J. Watson, pits its wits against Brad Rutter and Ken Jennings, top champions in the television game show, Jeopardy! (The game involves giving contestants answers and inviting them to guess the questions.)

The contest will play out over three days, and at the end of day one, February 14, the results were far from conclusive. Watson — which IBM executives claim has 16 terabytes of random access memory, or as much computing power as 6,000 high-end home computers — took an early lead. At one point, Watson had won $5,200 while Rutter and Jennings trailed behind at $1,000 and $200 respectively. Then, however, Watson made some gaffes, such as repeating a wrong answer from Jennings, while the humans forged ahead. Ultimately the game was tied: Watson and Rutter each had $5,000 while Jennings had $2,000.

The contest continues through February 16. As Jeopardy’s host Alex Trebek often likes to say, it is still anybody’s game. Beyond a point, though, who wins the $1 million prize is irrelevant. The PR buzz, however strident it may be today, will fade. Regardless of its performance on Jeopardy!, Watson’s real value is that it represents a significant leap forward in computing. As IBM notes on its web site, “Watson is a smarter system – an efficient analytical engine that pulls many sources of data together in real time, discovers an insight, and deciphers a degree of confidence.” It understands questions posed in natural language and gets smarter about answers as it goes along. The business applications for advanced analytics range from health care to urban planning.

Which is why we call upon all right-thinking people not to be complacent about Watson. Today Watson wants to be on a TV game show – what will it want to do tomorrow? Will it sit in front of patients and dispense medical advice? Or schmooze with clients to offer legal opinions? Or hang a shingle at an architect’s firm to design a building? Or (heaven forbid) stand in front of a class full of MBAs and deliver a lecture on private equity?

Should that happen, we at Knowledge@Wharton would call it Final Jeopardy. Well, wouldn’t you?

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