Tag: Abu Dhabi

To Stave Off Arab Spring Revolts, Saudi Arabia and Fellow Gulf Countries Spend $150 Billion

Possessing 20% of the world’s proven petroleum reserves, Saudi Arabia has long played the expected role of benefactor among its fellow Arab and Muslim countries. With a total aid budget of $3.1 billion in 2009, Saudi Arabia keeps one of the largest humanitarian aid funds in the world.

Much of that aid went to hardship-struck Muslim nations, including Pakistan, Somalia and the Palestinians. But since the Arab Spring took root this year, Saudi Arabia has spread its largesse among its own citizens and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) neighbors — a large part of $150 billion worth of social welfare spending in the region since the unrest began, according to a new report by Merrill Lynch Bank of America.

Only days following the collapse of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak’s regime in February, for instance, Saudi Arabia announced a social welfare package for its citizens worth $10.7 billion, featuring pay raises for government employees, new jobs and loan forgiveness schemes. By the end of the month, the handouts totaled $37 billion. In March, the trend continued, as Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah heralded an additional $93 billion in social spending.

Such generosity was no coincidence, noted the Merrill Lynch Bank of America report’s authors. “The initial response of GCC policymakers [to the Arab revolt] has been to sharply increase current spending to accommodate social pressures and to pledge intra-regional fiscal transfers to less endowed members,” wrote Jean-Michel Saliba, Middle East and North Africa economist for the firm.

In addition to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) capital of Abu Dhabi put forward plans to spend nearly $2 billion to provide housing loans to Emiratis, while Qatar announced this month an $8 billion payout in wage, salary and benefits increases for all state and military personnel. Oman and Bahrain have also indicated they would increase social spending by the billions this year.

Aside from raises for state employees, the spending in these Gulf states will go toward infrastructure and social amenities, such as roads, schools and hospitals, and further subsidies on food, water and power consumption for citizens.

Saliba and his colleagues cautioned that the outsized spending did not address the long-term nature of the problems presented by the Arab Spring, such as high unemployment. “This [social spending] has averted potential disquiet over governance in most countries, though, over a longer-term horizon, economic reforms will be needed to buoy private sector growth and job creation.”

Saudi Arabia’s generosity has been criticized as a means for the Arab world’s most populous country to make political gains and spread influence. The Merrill Lynch report also does not take into account the cost incurred by Saudi Arabia to send its troops into neighboring Bahrain to help quell a Shiite uprising there — another action to prevent revolt from reaching its own borders.

But in a recent analysis of the Arab Spring for Arabic Knowledge@Wharton, Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Stuart Diamond said the spending by the Saudis demonstrated their understanding of negotiation. “They understood that for many people, it was about Maslow’s [hierarchy of] needs triangle: that is, basic life necessities such as food, shelter and health mattered most. So the stipends that the Saudi government gave helped to quell disturbances,” he noted.

Diamond added that Saudi spending bought not only continued loyalty from its citizens. “What they have mostly bought was time. For now, the populace will be satisfied with their recent bonuses. But that does not amount to structural and sustainable change, the kind that would significantly improve everyone’s quality of life on a continuing basis. The Saudi government should take this opportunity to include more people in decision-making and develop new industries that give more people a chance at a better life over the long term.”

Featured Professors:
Posted in Knowledge@Wharton Today, Law and Public Policy | Also tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Post-Arab Spring, Confidence in Middle East Business Climate Remains Steady

Despite the tumult witnessed across the Middle East and North Africa in the wake of the Arab Spring, senior executives in the Gulf’s leading economies remain confident in the region’s business climate, according to a new survey conducted by management consultants Oliver Wyman and polling firm Zogby International.

A survey of more than 160 senior executives in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Qatar found that opinions were mixed about the Arab Spring’s short-term and long-term impact on economic development. Just 35% of respondents took a negative view, and most were expatriate Arabs in the Gulf.

“People still are focused on macroeconomic shocks rather than regional issues,” says John Turner, who leads Oliver Wyman’s public sector consulting practice in the region. “The Gulf, particularly the UAE, was harshly impacted by the global financial crisis, and that is still lingering.”

But Turner notes the research reflects “a sizable increase,” in concerns about regional, ethnic and religious tensions. This is the fourth survey of regional executives conducted by the firms, and compared to the last poll in December, there was a 19% rise of tension concerns in Saudi Arabia, which has taken a leadership role to forcefully contain any unrest in the region, and a 7% increase in the UAE, despite the absence of social or economic disruption associated with the Arab Spring there.

Also, the widely mentioned contributing factors to the Arab Spring — the need for education and labor reform to address the region’s youth unemployment — were considered the biggest threats to the region’s long-term competitiveness, and deemed the highest priorities for quick action, according to the survey. “Human capital is at the top of the list for executives in the region,” Turner says.

He adds that the challenge of youth unemployment shifts by scale across the region — Egypt has a population of over 83 million, while the UAE has a population of only 5 million. But the traditional regional solution of providing government jobs to young Arabs has reached a limit, he says. Regional governments in recent weeks have taken more aggressive approaches to ensure spots for their nationals; in Abu Dhabi, several state-linked bodies have purged expatriates to make positions for Emiratis.

The solution lies with private industry, but that has been difficult to achieve, Turner notes. The survey highlights a key factor in this issue: expatriate executives in the Gulf prefer to hire other expatriates, rather than local Arab graduates. “They are more difficult to hire, and costly to train,” Turner says. “Also, most of these expatriate executives have a three- to five-year horizon. There is a mismatch of incentives.”

The survey also took note of the infrastructure spending spurred by the Arab Spring in oil-rich Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, for instance, announced US$130 billion of additional public spending in recent months.

“All those things, businesses like to see, so confidence rises,” Turner notes. But these measures largely aren’t geared to solving underlying issues, he adds. “In the short term, it boosts businesses and appeases discontent. But in the longer term, does it get rid of the fundamental problems, such as youth unemployment?”

Earlier:

Oliver Wyman CEO John Drzik: The Middle East Needs a Comprehensive Risk Management Strategy

Facebook’s Growth in the Arab World Is Surging with Demands for Political Change

Posted in Knowledge@Wharton Today | Also tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Will Expansion Equal Success for Growing Gulf Airlines?

Intent on cementing itself as an international flight hub, Dubai continues to invest in its airline infrastructure and brand new airplanes. The sheikhdom will invest US$5.98 billion to expand Dubai and the new Al Maktoum international airports by 2020, officials say. Meanwhile, the Dubai government-owned Emirates airline plans to spend roughly US$10 billion a year to expand its fleet over three years, including 18 cargo planes.

Demonstrating the increasing clout of Gulf airlines in the aviation industry, Airbus has agreed to redesign its A350-1000 jet, after its Arab customers asked for changes that would allow the plane to fly further and carry more.

The government entity, Dubai Airports, recently forecast that international passenger traffic to Dubai would grow an average of 7.2% percent over the next decade, with passenger traffic reaching almost 100 million by 2020, and cargo volumes above 4 million tons.

Paul Griffiths, Dubai Airports CEO, told an audience in Bangkok recently that in less than a decade, aviation would account for 32% of the sheikhdom’s GDP — roughly US$45.4 billion. But in the same speech, Griffiths acknowledged that Dubai’s current airspace “is not currently configured to support this growth.”

Regional competitors will pose another threat to Dubai’s plans for aviation domination. Doha-based Qatar Airways is expecting to receive 200 jets worth US$35 billion, and is making a play for regional cargo business, converting 15 passenger jets to freighters and taking 33% ownership of Europe’s biggest freight carrier, Cargolux Airlines International SA. There is even competition from within the United Arab Emirates, as Dubai’s buttoned-down neighbor, Abu Dhabi, is undertaking major expansion plans for its international airport, and promoting its own airline, Etihad, which has ordered US$50 billion worth of jetliners.

Michael Wisbrun, managing director of SkyTeam Cargo, which includes the freight arm of Air France-KLM Group, told Arabian Business that such ambitious plans were of concern. “It will be tough. There’s no reason to have a hub in Qatar or the United Arab Emirates, and adding capacity with supply and demand as they are won’t help the equilibrium.”

There is need to question the sustainability of such growth, according to Wharton management professor Peter Cappelli. Speaking with Arabic Knowledge@Wharton about the Gulf airlines’ push to become a global hub for air travel, Cappelli noted that “only [a few] airlines in the world make money and the industry as a whole loses billions every year. Fundamentally, the nature of the industry is the problem: The marginal cost of filling an extra seat is almost nothing, so whenever the carriers have excess capacity, they have fare wars, and they all bleed to death. The only time any of them make any money is in the brief period in which demand is growing faster than capacity. Is there any reason to think that the carriers in the Middle East have somehow cracked this problem by spending more on new planes?”

Featured Professors:
Posted in Knowledge@Wharton Today, Strategic Management | Also tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment