Regional Focus: India

Dealing with Industrialist Mallya’s Woes Could Be a Test Case for India

092409_marketIndian industrialist Vijay Mallya, chairman of conglomerate UB Group, which has holdings that span from liquor to airlines, lost the nickname of ‘king of good times’ when his airline venture — Kingfisher Airlines — hit financial turbulence a couple of years ago. Since then, times have continued to be tough for Mallya. Kingfisher Airlines (KFA) was grounded in October and its scheduled operator’s permit lapsed in December. KFA employees have not been paid salaries for the past several months. They have been staging protests and exhorting Mallya to pay them instead of spending money on some of his other business interests, including a Formula One racing team and an Indian Premier League cricket team.

Mallya has now hit yet another rough patch. A consortium of 17 banks is getting ready to liquidate assets pledged with them by Mallya as collateral. These include Mallya’s villa in Goa, Kingfisher’s office in Mumbai and a luxury yatch. The lenders are also holding as collateral shares of Kingfisher Airlines, United Spirits, and Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilisers, and corporate guarantees of United Breweries. The total value of the collateral is estimated to be around Rs. 6,500 crore ($1.18 billion at the exchange rate of Rs. 54.63 to a dollar) against dues of Rs. 7,000 crore ($1.28 billion).

The State Bank of India, which leads the consortium of lenders, has already started selling shares of United Sprits. More than three million KFA shares have also been invoked. KFA, which owes around Rs. 13,582 crore ($2.48 billion) to banks, its staff, airport operators and oil companies, reported a net loss of Rs. 755 crore ($138 million) for the quarter ending in December.

In April, the company submitted yet another revival plan — the fifth so far — to India’s director-general of civil aviation (DGCA). After meeting the DGCA, KFA CEO Sanjay Aggarwal told the media: “We have given the complete funding and traffic plans to the DGCA. The initial funding to restart the airline will be from the UB Group. We have also requested the DGCA to renew our flying license.” The proposal outlines plans to start operations with seven aircraft and gradually increase the number to 20. Of KFA’s fleet of around 40, some aircraft were recently deregistered following a court order so that their lessors could repossess them.

According to newspaper reports, KFA’s new plan does not meet the pre-conditions set by the DGCA for the airline’s revival — including clearing all dues to employees and obtaining a no-objection certificate from the Airports Authority of India, tax authorities and banks to whom KFA owes money. The only difference from earlier revival plans is that the UB Group has got approval from its shareholders to fund KFA.

Expressing concern over the bad loans made by various public sector banks recently, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram urged the institutions to take tougher measures against defaulters. Chidambaram pointed out that the country cannot afford to have “affluent promoters and sick companies.” Speaking to daily newspaper The Times of India, Sanjay Jain, director of New Delhi-based investment consultancy firm Taj Capital Partners, said: “Any lenient step on an NPA [non-performing asset] would be looked down at. If the banks are allowed to bail out NPA companies, it’s the government that has to foot the bill. And the government is unlikely to finance sick loans when it is desperate to contain the fiscal deficit.”

Mallya could well be a test case for India.

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India’s Ambani Brothers Seal a Deal after Eight Long Years

Imacon Color ScannerEight years after their high-profile corporate family split, the Ambani brothers have signed their first business deal together. Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Jio Infocomm, a unit of Reliance Industries (RIL), has signed up with younger brother Anil Ambani’s Reliance Communications (RCom) to use the latter’s fiber optic network to roll out its new 4G telecom services.

While the deal is non-exclusive — both firms are free to sign up with other partners — and the size is not too big at Rs. 1,200 crore (US$220 million at the exchange rate of Rs. 54.60 to a dollar), it is indicative of bigger changes ahead. According to a statement by RCom, this deal is “the first in an intended comprehensive statement of business cooperation” between the two firms. The statement adds that there will be “optimal utilization of existing and future infrastructure of both companies on a reciprocal basis, including inter-city fiber, intra-city fiber, towers and related assets.”

For Mukesh, telecom has always been close to his heart. He was considered the brain behind Reliance’s telecom foray (with CDMA technology) in 2002. But the acrimonious split saw the telecom business fall into Anil’s kitty along with gas, power, financial services and entertainment. Mukesh got the flagship RIL. In June 2010, a month after the non-compete clause between the brothers was scrapped, Mukesh created a flutter when he re-entered the telecom arena. Mukesh acquired a low profile firm called Infotel Broadband — the only company to get a pan-India broadband wireless access license — a day after it won the license. (This company was later renamed Reliance Jio Infocomm.)

Mukesh is now getting ready for the big leap – delivering high speed data and voice services over 4G networks. Using RCom’s ready infrastructure will minimize the rollout time. Telecom also provides the flush-with-funds Mukesh a great outlet for investing his money. There is not too much scope for this in his petrochemicals business at present. His other big focus area — retail — has also proved to be tough.

Anil, meanwhile, is struggling. The tie-up with his brother allows him to monetize RCom’s excess capacity and reduce his debt burden. As of December 2012, RCom has a gross debt of Rs. 38,558 crore (US$7 billion). The shares of RCom rose by 11% after the announcement of the deal with RIL.

Talking to business daily Economic Times, Gartner’s research director Kamlesh Bhatia, said: “RIL will be able to reduce time to market for its 4G services as it no longer has to build an infrastructure right from scratch and then wait to see right of way. For RCom, monetization of [its] existing network will be the biggest advantage.”

In a note to their clients, analysts Nilesh Banerjee, Vikas Jain and Siddharth Raizada at Goldman Sachs Equity Research, said: “Our scenario analysis suggests RCom’s leverage will not change significantly even if the entire Rs. 1,200 crore amount is recorded upfront, but does indicate some impact if RCom earns further revenues from more such agreements.” Telecom analysts at Nomura described the tie-up as a “win-win deal” for both companies but added that a “lot more work needs to be done.”

It now remains to be seen how the sibling tie-up impacts other players in the sector and the end consumers.

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What’s in Store for Private Equity in India?

India is considered one of the most challenging markets globally for private equity investors. According to numbers shared by Chennai-based research and services firm Venture Intelligence, after the boom in 2007 which saw 523 PE deals totaling US$14.3 billion, the industry dipped to 287 deals totaling US$4 billion in 2009. While it picked up in 2011 to 494 deals totaling US$10.4 billion, last year it again saw a dip to 438 deals and investments of US$8.9 billion.

So where is PE in India headed? Debating this at a recent event hosted by Venture Intelligence in Mumbai, industry players said that given India’s inherent economic strength, the PE industry will bounce back — but PE firms will have to play a more responsible role.

Pointing out that PE is very nascent in India, “seven to 10 years at best since it has gained scale,” Neeraj Bharadwaj, managing director of Carlyle India, noted that until now, the returns have not been very positive for most funds. “People have had one-off exits; at the fund levels, performance has not been that great…. But I see that changing. I think we are at a watershed moment.” According to Bharadwaj, volatility in the public market has made fund raising there difficult, especially for large amounts, so “more big deals and reasonable valuations” are expected to happen with PE.

Bharadwaj added: “A very interesting trend in India is that [there are] many more buyouts happening — multinationals looking to divest their Indian businesses, first-generation entrepreneurs willing to let go of their businesses and not necessarily passing it on to the next generation. I see these as positive trends for private equity; PE 2.0 will be a lot more positive than PE 1.0.”

According to K.P. Balaraj, cofounder and managing director of WestBridge Advisors, unlike earlier, “there is a huge focus on more reasonable valuations. Both entrepreneurs and investors are now looking at a win-win partnership.” Balaraj suggests that “investors who invest in funds are still excited about India.” He expects that in the next five-to-ten years, there will be another PE boom in India, but of a different kind. “On the local side, there will probably be smaller, more focused funds — maybe more mid-market funds, health care or consumer funds. And there will be the very large global franchisees — Blackstone, Carlyle, Sequoia — who will build a far more diversified portfolio.”

Akhil Gupta, senior managing director and chairman of Blackstone India, emphasized the responsibility of the investors. “We have to play the same role that venture capitalists played in Silicon Valley. It was not just money that they gave. It was the guidance, the network, the governance practices. This role is important for us because the opportunities for the promoters [in India] are way beyond what they imagined five years back.” Gupta also stressed the long term potential for PE in India. “We have to be patient. The India story is three steps forward, two steps backwards. But I think it will change…. A billion people’s aspirations will drive the country’s growth. If I take a dynamic view, I remain bullish.”

Ashish Dhawan, cofounder of Chrys Capital, however, raised concerns over the issue of governance in this space. “What has bothered me in the 13 years that I have been active in this segment is that I didn’t see any improvement at all in corporate governance. In fact, it may have declined for a period of time when lots of money was readily available. That tide has to turn. If minority investing has to be successful, then corporate governance has to improve.”

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Patent Controversy Resumes as Indian Supreme Court Rejects Novartis’ Glivec Claim

GlivecThe Indian Supreme Court has rejected Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis’ appeal for patent protection for its blood-cancer treatment drug Glivec. In a judgment delivered Monday, the Court held that Glivec was an example of “incremental innovation” under Section 3(d) of the Indian Patents Act and, as such, not liable for protection. This controversial section deals with “over-greening,” a term used to describe creating a new version of a drug with only incremental modification and no innovation in order to extend the life of a patent.

What constitutes an “incremental” change is, of course, a matter of judgment and the ruling brings back into the spotlight the patent wars that have been fought in India over the past few years. By and large, multinationals have been losing out — for example, Hyderabad-based firm Natco Pharma was granted a compulsory license for Bayer’s liver and kidney anti-cancer drug Nexavar. (The Natco version was 97% cheaper than the German brand.) Several other multinational-made products have been replaced by cheaper generics.

On one side of the debate is affordability. Treatment using Glivec costs Rs. 120,000 (around $2,000) a month compared with just $140 for the generic equivalent. “The Novartis patent ruling [is] a victory in battle for affordable medicines,” the Guardian newspaper in the United Kingdom reported.

Opponents, however, argue that the ruling is a blow to intellectual property rights. According to a statement from Novartis, “The primary concern of this case was with India’s growing non-recognition of intellectual property rights that sustain research and development for innovative medicines.” And Ranjit Shahani, vice-chairman and managing director of Novartis India, told Indian newspaper The Hindu that “No global player has invested in R&D here, and it is unlikely to happen given the atmosphere. India is a developing country and needs to encourage innovation. The verdict is not very encouraging and shows that the ecosystem to encourage innovation does not exist here.” But Anand Grover, lawyer for the Cancer Patients Aid Association, which opposed Novartis in the patent case, says the court decision will “go a long way in providing affordable medicine for the poor.”

The battle over Glivec has been going on since 2006, when the patent controller’s office in Chennai declined to give Novartis a patent for the drug. The company went to court. In 2007, the Madras High Court rejected the Novartis plea, and the Intellectual Property Appellate Board decided against the firm in a 2009 appeal. The company went to the Supreme Court in 2009 and the result was Monday’s judgment. Novartis has said, however, that it is going through the fine print of the decision and is likely to once again appeal.

The Novartis case is one of many that are reaching judgment in Indian courts. The cases are likely to set the course for big pharma investment in the country. But observers suggest that the overall impact could be limited. The Indian pharma market is estimated to be worth around $30 billion a year at present, including exports. Patented products make up barely 1% of that. According to a McKinsey report, the market could grow to $70 billion by 2020. This is where the future demand will be, and MNCs and Indian companies alike want a piece of the action.

“I don’t expect the Novartis judgment to have an adverse impact on MNC investments in the country,” says Sarabjit Kour Nangra, vice president for research at Angel Broking. “The case has clearly been fought on the grounds that process patents should not be allowed. In that sense, it truly respects the patent position of the product and I think the MNCs will understand this…. The growth potential in the India market is too big for MNCs to ignore.”

In an earlier story published on India Knowledge@Wharton, Wharton health care management professor Patricia Danzon pointed out that patent protection enables companies that invest significantly in R&D to recoup those costs. Forcing a private sector company to sell at a lower price or to take away their intellectual property in an attempt to make medical care affordable, “is not a viable precedent in a market economy,” she noted.

But for the cheering masses outside the Delhi courtroom on Monday, it was a different story.

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Pepsi’s Cricket Deal Marks Opening Day for India’s Latest Cola War

In a cricket-crazy nation like India, partnering with one of the sport’s major events assures companies of garnering plenty of publicity. And in this, PepsiCo seems to have hit a winning stroke: In November, the American food and beverage firm won the title sponsorship to the Indian Premium League (IPL) for five years starting in 2013. This year’s IPL is scheduled to start on Wednesday.

PepsiCo’s winning bid was at Rs.397 crore ($73 million) for the five-year period, making the deal the largest investment the company has made in India related to the game of cricket.

The soft drink maker is now the “exclusive pouring partner” for eight out of nine IPL teams, meaning that PepsiCo’s foods and beverages will be exclusively served at partner teams’ home matches and Pepsi will also have the title of the “official beverage” for the eight teams.

“Winning the title sponsorship [of the IPL] was just the beginning,” Gautham Mukkavilli, CEO for beverages of PepsiCo India said in a news release. “We are committed to back it with smart, strategic and high-decibel marketing and activation plans that will help us maximize the tournament’s potential.”

Company officials expect the Pepsi-IPL sponsorship to result in a multiplier of at least five to six times the initial investment. “The timing of the tournament is also ideal, given that packaged beverages is an impulse category and nearly 50% of the consumption happens in the [summer] months,” according  to Deepika Warrier, vice president for beverages marketing at PepsiCo India.

Pepsi also recently rolled out a new marketing initiative in India. The “Oh Yes Abhi” campaign features cricket and film stars promoting the joys of living in the moment and instant gratification — “Abhi” in Hindi means “right now” — and is aimed at India’s large youth population.

Meanwhile, sector leader Coca-Cola has also launched a new marketing push. Leveraging the Facebook page and Twitter handle of Bollywood superstar Salman Khan, the company launched a new campaign for its Thums Up cola brand. The same initiative has been launched in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh — the largest market for Thums Up in the country — with film star Mahesh Babu in the lead.

Coca-Cola has also launched a 400 milliliter container size across its brands. “We are strengthening our [occasion, brand, pack, price, and channel] model by adding another pack to our portfolio,” notes Anupama Ahluwalia, vice president of marketing at Coca-Cola India. “The 400 milliliter pack will offer more choice to the consumer and be especially relevant for the on-the-go consumer. Keeping with changing lifestyles, this pack will straddle between the existing 200 milliliter and 300 milliliter glass bottles and the 500 milliliter and 600 milliliter [plastic containers.]”

New Delhi-based research and consultancy firm Technopak Advisors pegs the size of the refrigerated carbonated beverages market in India at $1,287 million. “This segment is growing at 6% to 7% annually. Coca-Cola remains the market leader in this category with a market share of more than 55%, followed by Pepsi with around 40%,” says Gurbinder Kumar, associate director for food services and agriculture at Technopak.

According to a report in Indian financial daily Business Standard, “Each year the two cola majors cumulatively spend around $64 to $73 million on advertising, marketing and promotion, around 55% of which is earmarked for the summer months.”

Last year, Coca-Cola announced an additional investment of $3 billion in India through 2020 to further capture growth opportunities in the country’s fast-growing non-alcoholic beverage market, bringing the company’s total spending in the nation to $5 billion from 2012 to 2020.

The per capita consumption of soft drinks in India is among the lowest in the world at six bottles a year, compared to 80 bottles in Thailand and 800 bottles in the U.S. Delhi has the highest per capita consumption in the country with 50 bottles annually.

Technopak’s Kumar points out that a growing shift in consumer preferences toward healthier food has required both Coke and Pepsi to refocus their efforts in India. “Rising awareness about heart- and weight-related health issues, especially among teenagers and young adults, is driving the consumption of packaged fruit drinks,” Kumar says. “The increased awareness is leading consumers to upgrade from carbonated soft drinks to healthier beverages such as fruit juices.”

Coca-Cola, for example, has signed on the very first brand ambassadors for its mango drink, Maaza. Last month, the firm also rolled out a new campaign building on the “made with nature” tagline for its Minute Maid orange drink. PepsiCo, too, has launched a new push for its Slice mango drink and, in a worldwide first in the history of the firm’s Tropicana brand, the company has introduced fruit powders in India in three flavors.

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How Companies Can Win in Rural India

Rural India Accenture ReportIndia’s rural market is not new to marketers. Almost a decade ago, management expert C.K. Prahalad urged companies consider the revenue potential of bottom-of-the-pyramid customers. In 2007, McKinsey & Co. highlighted the opportunities that exist in rural India in its report, “The ‘Bird of Gold’: The Rise of India’s Consumer Market.” In the past few years, many companies have seen these predictions bear fruit, and started banking on the rural economy to provide a cushion for any slowdown experienced in urban India.

Now, a recent study by management consulting firm Accenture titled, “Profitably Selling to India’s Rural Customers: Hidden Lessons From the Masters,” suggests that more than two-thirds of companies in India are looking to rapidly expand their businesses in rural markets — more firms than any time ever in the country’s history.

The report notes that increasing income, higher aspirations and better infrastructure are resulting in a better business environment in rural India. Since 2000, GDP has grown faster in rural India than in urban areas — a 6.2% compound average growth rate (CAGR) compared with 4.7% in the cities. Between 2010 and 2012, spending in rural India was $69 billion, while $55 billion was spent by the nation’s urban population.

The report cautions, however, that simply having a presence in rural India is not adequate to attract consumers living there; companies need to acquire “deep customer and market insights” and develop “transformational strategies to master these markets.” According to the report, a typical mistake that companies tend to make is to treat rural consumers as a single homogenous market. They also tend to offer the same value proposition to rural consumers as they do to their urban counterparts.

A few months ago, at a Nielsen India conference titled, “Consumer 360 India,” held in New Delhi, speakers noted that there are several wrong notions regarding rural consumers. Prashant Singh, vice president of Nielsen India, said: “Contrary to the myth that rural Indians prefer [products packaged in] small packs and sachets, the consumers there actually prefer the large packs, [which] offer value for money.”

According to Accenture, three key enablers for reaching, acquiring and retaining rural customers are as follows: adapting organizational structure and leadership buy-in, creating a winning talent management strategy, and using technology to create advantage. Sanjay Dawar, managing director of Accenture’s business consulting practice in India, suggests that “the unprecedented speed of change in rural markets also demands unprecedented agility.”

Dawar notes that rural markets lack adequate physical and social infrastructure and therefore distribution of services across these markets is very costly and challenging. “Companies expanding in rural markets should therefore focus their geographic reach and more effectively invest in understanding the segment-specific nuances in those areas. They should then prioritize their channel partnership strategy to strengthen the capabilities and reliability needed to reach customers in the last mile.”

Those who have been most successful in these markets have gone beyond the traditional selling approaches, Dawar points out, adding that collaboration will also play a critical role. “To expand their reach while optimizing resources, companies will have to pursue non-traditional partnerships, even with competitors, and work with local organizations as channel partners to capture scale opportunities early on.”

The report further notes that “companies that have proved most successful in rural markets have helped improve rural consumers’ standard of living — by creating jobs, building social infrastructure or providing business opportunities.” It suggests that to foster these kinds of improvements, “companies need to align their long-term interests with the community’s development to gain its trust and commitment. This alignment builds synergistic relationships based on shared goals and aspirations.”

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Multinationals and Domestic Firms See a New Appetite for Oats in India

quaker-oats-jarsOats have been a breakfast staple in many Indian homes for a long time. Now, marketers seem to have woken up to the business potential of this humble food.

Currently pegged at around US$37 million, the oats market in India is estimated to have the potential to leap three-fold by 2015. Buoyed by growth prospects, the segment has seen the entry of new players in recent years. These include GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare, Kellogg India and biscuit maker Britannia. According to some industry watchers, Hindustan Unilever and Nestle India, two of the biggest food companies in India, are getting ready to enter the ring as well.

So what has brought about this change? Industry players say that oats first started becoming popular for their health benefits. Now, taste is the new ingredient in the marketing mix. Sameer Satpathy, executive vice president and head of marketing–consumer product business at Marico, says: “Oats as a category had always existed and its health benefits were known, but not to the mass consumer. Today, marketers are creating awareness for the category which is [attracting] more people. Brands are also investing in developing and customizing oats to the Indian palate.”

Satpathy points out that Marico, which made its oats debut in 2010 under its Saffola brand, realized that consumers perceived health and taste at the opposite ends of the spectrum and decided to bridge the gap. “We believe that growth can be unlocked only if there is no tradeoff. And hence our research and development team was given a simple brief: How can we make oats not just acceptable, but relished by Indians?”

In October last year, Marico launched six variants including veggie twist, peppy tomato, classic masala (spicy) and curry and pepper. PepsiCo, which introduced its Quaker Oats in India in 2006, also added a host of variants last year. These include masala, kesar with kishmish (saffron and raisins), lemony veggie mix and strawberry with apple. Britannia, too, has plain, strawberry, savory and multi-grain porridge oats. These come in varying sizes ranging from single serve sachets, pouches, economy jars and boxes. Some brands even offer in-store sampling to woo potential buyers.

Industry analysts say that the category, which is growing at over 25% per annum, is still evolving. “Whenever a food product starts transitioning from nutrition into taste and then [to] trends and fashion, the category grows,” notes Jagdeep Kapoor, chairman and managing director of Samsika Marketing Consultants.

This transition is evident in many other food and beverage categories in India. Take, for instance, olive oil, prunes, almonds, fruit juices and green tea. “Health is the latest fad in India. And everybody wants to milk a winning formula. All these products have graduated [further] from the health platform and are today a hit with a young and upwardly mobile target audience…,” says Vinay Adhye, business head of Sahakari Bhandar, a Mumbai-based food and grocery chain.

The rising income level of India’s 330 million-member middle class is another contributing factor. Consumers can afford to change their eating habits to factor in health, convenience and taste. “I see a pattern here. Companies have realized that operating in a niche does not work to their advantage. If they want to go main stream, they have to cater to the entire family,” observes Damodar Mall, director-food strategy at the Future Group.

So, as part of their new strategy, players are promoting oats for use in traditional Indian dishes. PepsiCo, for example, is urging customers to use its Quaker oats to make idlis (rice and lentil cakes), dosas (rice and lentil pancakes) and upma (semolina porridge). Bangalore-based food company MTR has launched oats idli mixes.

A local menu is something that other multinational food companies are also dishing up. Subway, for instance, has opened vegetarian outlets in the country and McDonald’s has announced similar plans. “You need to keep moving if you want a large slice of the Indian market,” says Mall. “In terms of food, India is not merely an emerging market but an assertive market.”

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Probes Begin as Top Indian Banks Are Embroiled in Sting Operation

BanksThe top three Indian private sector banks — ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank — were caught in a controversy this week over allegations that they had been engaged in money laundering and income- tax evasion. Cobrapost.com, an online business magazine that has other sting operations to its credit, posted videos of alleged conversations with bank staff in which they made such claims.

“The images of front-office staff and middle-level managers at the branches of banks and insurance companies across India virtually gloating about their experience of handling dubious cash transactions on behalf of their other shadowy customers to get them [out] of the taxman’s radar make a mockery of any claims that these banks may make to abiding by ethical business practices,” the Cobrapost wrote in a report that accompanied the videos. “In the end, all it took to pull down the shiny reputations of three of India’s most high-profile private banks was one intrepid reporter with a sting camera — and a yarn about wanting to launder money on behalf of a leading politician.”

The Cobrapost videos, shot under an operation named Red Spider, showed several bank staffers offering to convert black money into white. Some even offered to deliver handsome returns. Economic daily Business Standard reported that “the most common method offered was to invest the money in long-term insurance products. The managers usually offered insurance products of sister concerns, such as HDFC Life and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance.”

The videos are telling. But not everybody is taking them at face value. By the next day, the launch of a new smartphone had knocked the story off the websites of the leading business papers.

The finance ministry has asked the banks for details. TV station ET Now quotes Financial Services Secretary Rajiv Takru as saying: “All government agencies and regulators are working together to probe charges.” Earlier, Urjit Patel, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) told the media that his agency “is collecting information and has been in touch with the banks. At the moment, that’s all I can say.” It is likely that the several inquiries that have been started will be integrated next week.

The banks are conducting their own investigations. “We have constituted a high-level inquiry committee to investigate into the matter and submit its findings in two weeks,” an ICICI Bank release said. “We want to assure our customers and all our other stakeholders that we are committed towards adherence to the high standards of business conduct, which is expected of us.”

The markets have reacted adversely, but not very much so. ICICI Bank lost Rs. 40.60 (75 cents) on Friday, to close at Rs. 1,087 ($20), down 3.04%. HDHC Bank was down 1.67% and Axis Bank 0.90%. The Bank Nifty, a popular index of banking stocks, was down 1.79%. The entire market was bearish, with the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index closing 0.73% lower.

But not everyone thinks the matter will blow over soon. “We think these developments, if they were to be true, could potentially lead to slower growth across private banks’ deposits and businesses as the RBI may then direct banks to focus on improving risk management rather than expanding,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note late on Thursday.

In a coincidence, Moodys had last year placed the same three banks on rating watch, though the move had nothing to do with accusations of money laundering.

According to legal experts, the Cobrapost charges will damage the image of the banks and perhaps the individuals shown in the videos. But making such claims is quite different from proving a transgression of the law. “The sting operation shows no actual transaction that could be seen as violation of either the Income Tax Act or the Foreign Exchange Management Act, but it could be treated as evidence to prove that there is a motive to violate laws,” The Economic Times reported. The economic daily quotes Ashok Paranjpe of MDP & Partners: “Sting operations must either unearth an illegality or a matter of vital and genuine public interest.”

“This is enough evidence for banks to carry out an internal investigation,” he continued. “There are many cases where banks have filed a criminal complaint against their own employees for wrongdoing. Banks cannot be held liable for their employees’ act.”

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