Focus On: Kevin Werbach

Wikipedia, Google and Others on Their ‘SOPA’ Box

The lights have gone out — temporarily — at Wikipedia. At midnight Eastern Standard Time today, the English edition of the well-known online information source began a 24-hour “blackout” to protest two bills under consideration in Congress: the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and the Protect IP Act (PIPA).

The bills are aimed at stopping the spread of copyrighted material across the web and would prohibit search engines from referring users to sites that either host or link to pirated content, including videos, music or text. They would also enable individuals or companies to take legal action to stop the unauthorized use of their content and sue copyright infringers. Wikipedia, Google, Reddit (a social news website) and others have issued statements against the proposed legislation, viewing it as a form of censorship. Reddit followed Wikipedia’s lead and blacked out its site for the day. Google’s site remained live, but the company placed a black box over its logo to draw attention to the issue.  

While many would agree that content creators deserve their due, opponents of SOPA and PIPA — including free speech advocates, technology companies and investors — argue that “the bills would stifle online innovation, violate the First Amendment and even compromise national security by undermining the integrity of the Internet’s naming system,” according to The New York Times.

“Balancing the rights of content creators, consumers and Internet providers is a delicate operation,” notes Kendall Whitehouse, director of new media at Wharton. “Unfortunately, in their current form, SOPA and PIPA are rather like using a meat axe where we need a deftly handled scalpel.”

In a recent blog post titled “Digital Content: The Half-Full Glass,” Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach notes that SOPA and PIPA also ignore a critical reality: The “great Internet success story” of authorized digital-content distribution.

“Reading [these bills], one would think that no one pays for digital content,” Werbach writes. “Yet we know empirically that the market is thriving. Anecdotally, too. Ask a roomful of college students if they’ve obtained digital content through unauthorized means. Every hand might go up. Then ask whether they also pay for those very same forms of content. You could get the same response.”

Werbach cites Apple, Hulu, Netflix and Pandora, among others, as examples of companies that are “monetizing digital content in unique, creative ways, while sending licensing fees back to the record labels and other content owners. Even licensed mobile ringtones are a $2 billion global business.

“The market isn’t perfect,” Werbach concedes. ” It is a challenging time to be in any kind of content industry. We must accept, however, that the Internet genie will never go back in the bottle. It’s time to build upon the successes of digital distribution, rather than imposing ever wider spheres of legal liability.”

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From Competition to Nonaggression: The Implications of Verizon’s Spectrum Buy

Verizon Wireless’ move last week to spend $3.6 billion on new wireless spectrum acquired from cable companies led by Comcast was called brilliant by a bevy of analysts. But Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach says there are policy implications to ponder.

On December 2, Verizon announced that it would buy 122 Advanced Wireless Services spectrum licenses from Comcast, Time Warner Cable and Bright House Networks. In a statement, Verizon said that the additional spectrum will bolster its network coverage. Verizon will also begin selling the cable companies’ services at its retail stories, and the cable companies will do the same for the wireless company.

On the surface, Verizon Wireless’ spectrum acquisition was “ingenious,” noted Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan. “Spectrum is the most critical infrastructure bottleneck and whoever controls the most will have the best quality/cost trade-off,” he said.

Werbach agrees that Verizon’s spectrum acquisition was a smart one, but adds that the deal gives the Federal Communications Communication, which will rule on the sale, several issues to consider. “The deal is a huge win for Verizon, especially coming on the heels of the government deciding to block the AT&T/T-Mobile merger,” Werbach says. “But it’s more than that. This transaction represents the endpoint of 20 years of U.S. communications policymaking. For two decades, regulators have pushed for cross-platform competition.  With cable and Verizon dividing the broadband market into wireline and wireless fiefdoms and agreeing to cross-sell, we have instead a small number of integrated players under nonaggression pacts.”

According to Werbach, the FCC will have to decide whether consolidation of wireless spectrum is a competitive worry. Most analysts expect FCC approval of Verizon’s spectrum acquisition because the spectrum is likely to be used instead of hoarded. Werbach notes that the deal is a huge win for Verizon because it trumps top competitor AT&T. Comcast also comes out a winner because it turned a profit on its wireless spectrum and won’t have to build its own mobile network.

One thing is certain: Verizon Wireless is grabbing as much spectrum as it can so it can build its high-speed 4G services. On December 5, Verizon swapped spectrum with Leap Wireless in an unrelated deal. Leap Wireless acquired spectrum in Chicago for $204 million. Verizon gets spectrum in various markets around the U.S. for $360 million in two separate deals with Leap and its subsidiary, Savary Island Wireless.

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It Was Gnarly Helping to Smoke an Aids Virus, Man

From our “you can’t make this stuff up” in-basket, we see that video gamers have solved a perplexing medical research challenge that has baffled top scientists for 10 years – and they did it in just 10 days.

As this piece from MSNBC notes, the gamers “solved a molecular puzzle that stumped scientists for years, and those scientists say the accomplishment could point the way to crowdsourced cures for AIDS and other diseases. ‘This is one small piece of the puzzle in being able to help with AIDS,’“ said Firas Khatib, a biochemist at the University of Washington. He is the lead author of a research paper on the project, published by Nature Structural & Molecular Biology.

The gamers that found the solution in 10 days hang out on a collaborative online game site called Foldit, an example of what MSNBC calls “a burgeoning field that enlists Internet users to look for alien planets, decipher ancient texts and do other scientific tasks that sheer computer power can’t accomplish as easily.”

And that’s a powerful combination, says Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, who recently helped organized a conference on gamification. He notes that “Foldit is a fantastic example of how making a real-world challenge game-like can motivate active participation and innovative solutions.”

This may not have been the scruffiest team of gnarly gamers ever assembled — Werbach guesses that most Foldit players are involved, not necessarily because they are gamers, “but because the tool presents them with an engaging puzzle to solve.”

Participants, nevertheless, are in it for fun as well as the challenge. “We know from psychology that people are motivated to achieve goals they find intrinsically rewarding or fun,” Werbach points out. “There’s no inherent reason that folding proteins or succeeding in a business challenge can’t be fun in the same way as winning in a video game.”

Making the game work, though, is a challenge in itself. “It’s not easy to design those experiences successfully,” Werbach adds. “The field of gamification is at an embryonic stage, but it has great potential for business as well as social impact applications.”

It all makes even more sense when you think about the inherent limitations of both humans and computers. Seth Cooper, a University of Washington computer scientist who doubles as Foldit’s lead designer and developer, wrote in a news release: “People have spatial reasoning skills, something computers are not yet good at. Games provide a framework for bringing together the strengths of computers and humans.”

Meantime, Knowledge@Wharton recently published a three-part special report on these ideas — Gamification: Why Playing Games Could Be the Next Big Thing for Business — which includes coverage of a recent Wharton conference titled, “For the Win: Serious Gamification.” The report offers interviews with conference participants who discuss the use of gamification in business, government and other arenas.

The introduction of the report notes: “Gamification — the application of online game design techniques in non-game settings — has been quickly gaining the attention of leaders in business, education, policy and even terrorist communities. But gamification also has plenty of critics, and the debate over its future could become an epic battle in the same vein of many online game favorites.”

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Yahoo: Let’s Make a Deal

As Google, Microsoft and other potential suitors continue to explore the idea of buying Yahoo, the question remains: Who would benefit most from such a purchase, and why? 

According to Wharton marketing professor Eric T. Bradlow, co-director of the Wharton Customer Analytics Initiative (WCAI), Google, with its prior acquisition of DoubleClick, “would have a unique opportunity to utilize its in-house technology to monetize Yahoo’s installed base. Revenue on the Internet is still driven by traffic, which is a function of having unique and important content.” DoubleClick, purchased in March 2008, provides ad management and related services for buyers and sellers of digital media advertising.

Google could also bring its recently launched social networking Google+ to Yahoo’s audience of nearly 700 million unique visitors, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. In addition, Google would benefit from Yahoo’s relationships with content publishers like ABC News.

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, states that while Yahoo’s massive user base makes it valuable as a whole to acquirers, “the user benefits really come from the individual Yahoo offerings that are differentiated or have well-developed communities.”

Google is in talks with private equity investors to buy Yahoo’s core business, while Microsoft plans to invest “several billions of dollars” in loans to potential bid partners and preferred equity in Yahoo, the Journal report says. Yahoo and Microsoft already have a 10-year search partnership signed in 2009, a year after U.S. antitrust regulators frowned on a proposed Google-Yahoo partnership for web search advertising. Chinese Internet firm Alibaba Group Holdings, in which Yahoo has a 40% equity stake, has also shown interest in buying Yahoo, but has not yet made a formal offer.

If Microsoft’s strategy is successful, it may also push to integrate Skype, the Internet communications service it recently bought, into Yahoo, says a New York Times report. Already, Microsoft’s Bing search engine allows Yahoo to sell ads against responses to user queries.

The “basic question,” says Werbach, is whether Yahoo today is more valuable as a whole or in parts. “Any new owner of Yahoo must choose whether to extract as much revenue as it can from the existing platform, or to re-energize Yahoo as a distinct competitor. The second option would be better for Yahoo’s users, but it’s riskier for potential investors.”

Bradlow notes that while Yahoo has struggled in some ways, it has continued to provide content that attracts millions of unique visitors on a daily basis, especially “a very monetizable set of customers.” Yahoo’s visitors “tend to be heavier-than-average buyers of products and services, and provide a valuable audience for targeted advertiser content,” he adds. Yahoo’s news arm reported 81.2 million unique visitors in August, making it the biggest online news site, the Times report said.

Yahoo reportedly sought out potential investors after firing its chief executive, Carol Bartz, in September. Bartz made way for Yahoo CFO Tim Morse to become interim CEO after a study of Yahoo’s assets and performance by independent directors concluded that the company was not performing as well as it could. Yahoo is “still basically playing out the Internet portal model that it pioneered in the 1990s,” Werbach told Knowledge@Wharton Today at the time, adding then that “Morse, or whoever takes over as the permanent CEO, needs to make a major strategic decision: Sell the company or bet big on a big idea.”

Price could be a major sticking point as Yahoo’s suitors cobble together a deal, according to the Times. “Private equity firms have indicated they are unwilling to pay much more than Yahoo’s current market value of $20 billion, arguing that the stock price already includes the expectation of a sale,” the article says.

Putting the right price tag on Yahoo may be a tough call, but the space it operates in offers advertisers a value they cannot ignore. “What social media has allowed companies to do is listen to customers in real time,” said Bradlow in a recent Knowledge@Wharton interview. “You think about the biggest problem companies have: What is it? It’s customer defection and churn. You know why? Because you spend a huge amount of money on acquisition costs, [but] many customers don’t stay around long enough” to justify that expense.

 

 

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Will iPhone 4S Help Sprint Race Ahead?

It’s no news that Sprint — the nation’s third-largest wireless carrier — has slowed to a crawl in the past few years. According to Bloomberg Businessweek, the company has reported losses for 15 consecutive quarters, and 855,000 customers left its network last year.

But now, the company has a new weapon in its arsenal: the latest iPhone — or iPhone 4S — which was unveiled by Apple during a press conference yesterday. On October 14, Sprint will begin selling the device, which includes a faster processor, improved camera and new voice-prompt technology. What’s more, Sprint will likely offer the phone with unlimited data plans in the hopes that it can gain market share from its two competitors, Verizon and AT&T, both of which will also carry the latest version, Bloomberg notes.

Earlier this year, AT&T lost its contract as the sole carrier for the device when Verizon began offering it. After acquiring the iPhone, Verizon saw its subscriber total jump by 906,000 between January and March — more than twice the number during the same period in 2010. Could Sprint have similar good fortune?

Apparently, the company is betting on it — and betting big. According to the Wall Street Journal, Sprint has ordered 30.5 million units — an estimated commitment of $20 billion over the next four years.

However, Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach isn’t convinced that, in the case of Sprint, the iPhone will be a panacea. “The iPhone was a big boost for Verizon because customers already preferred [Verizon] to AT&T, and they wanted the Apple device,” he notes. “There isn’t a huge contingent of customers who inherently prefer Sprint; that has been [the company's] challenge.”

According to the Journal, at the end of the second quarter, Verizon had 106 million wireless subscribers, AT&T had almost 99 million and Sprint was far behind with 52 million — many of whom were not on annual contracts. “Being able to offer the iPhone is just table stakes,” Werbach says. “It doesn’t distinguish Sprint in the marketplace.”  

Unlimited data is a smart move, he adds, “but that alone won’t convince the mass of customers to switch from AT&T or Verizon. Customers don’t entirely understand the data caps and usage charges the other carriers are adopting, and their initial response is likely to be cutting usage rather than switching carriers. Most customers are locked in for two years, anyway.”

Wharton marketing professor Eric Bradlow suggests that the company could see a benefit, at least initially. “Sprint’s bet on the iPhone makes a lot of sense in the short term, because currently iPhone has the best applications, widest distribution and best word-of-mouth.” But there are other variables to consider. Apple’s operating system still doesn’t support Adobe’s Flash Player program, Bradlow notes, which is needed for opening PDFs and viewing many popular websites. He adds that Google’s Android platform has an edge because it is more open-source. “A question remains about which operating system will be dominant in the long run.”

But whether or not Apple remains the leader in the smartphone market is perhaps beside the point, according to Werbach. Ultimately, he says, “Sprint will have to do something significantly more radical to avoid being squeezed by the two bigger players.”

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The ‘Morse Code’ at Yahoo: Bet Big, or Die

Tim Morse, Yahoo’s new interim CEO, needs to sharpen his focus on two things to right his embattled company, according to Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics. The company must “become relevant again in the Internet market and have a viable, differentiated long-term business model,” says Werbach, who studies digital convergence and innovation, among other subjects. Morse, 42, stepped up from his previous role as chief financial officer on Tuesday after Yahoo’s chairman fired CEO Carol Bartz over the phone.

Bartz, 62, had little more than a year left on her contract since taking over as CEO in 2009. Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Yahoo had hired her on the strength of her successful runs at Sun Microsystems and software maker Autodesk. But a recent study of Yahoo’s assets and performance conducted by independent directors “concluded the company wasn’t performing as well as it could,” according to a Wall Street Journal report. Visitors spent 33% fewer minutes per month on Yahoo’s U.S. website since Bartz became CEO, the report said, citing comScore data.

“The company is still basically playing out the Internet portal model that it pioneered in the 1990s,” says Werbach. “Morse, or whoever takes over as the permanent CEO, needs to make a major strategic decision: Sell the company or bet big on a big idea. Just managing effectively on the current trajectory is a path toward a death spiral.” Yahoo has, over time, been courted by potential acquirers, but no deal has come close to completion.

Kartik Hosanagar, Wharton professor of operations and information management, doesn’t believe Yahoo is reaching its end. He points out that the company reported more than $6 billion in revenues and more than $1 billion in profits last year. Yet, the company “is not going anywhere,” he says. “The major issue is that [its] growth is lagging the industry, especially [that of] Google, Facebook, etc.”

Hosanagar suggests that Yahoo should go back to its roots in media products. “It needs to come out with a new compelling product that is not an effort to catch up with Google or Facebook or anyone else, but instead is revolutionary. It should think about how to create that culture of innovation within and find that spark that resulted in Yahoo being formed in the first place.” Efforts to catch up or beat Google at search or email, or to compete with Facebook in social marketing, “will be misguided,” he notes.

One of Morse’s top challenges will be to decide whether or not to sell Yahoo’s 40% equity stake in Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba Group. Bartz had resisted Alibaba’s efforts to buy back that stake, for which Yahoo paid $1 billion six years ago. Investment analysts suggest that Morse should retain Yahoo’s Alibaba stake, especially because of the potential upside from a possible listing of Alibaba’s popular online shopping site, Taobao, according to a Bloomberg News report. Bartz courted controversy in May when Alibaba sold control of its online payment company to a group controlled by Alibaba’s CEO. “The Alibaba debacle made investors insecure about whether or not the crown jewel (Alibaba) will stay with Yahoo or not,” Hosanagar says.

Hosanagar notes that Bartz seemed focused on financial and organizational re-engineering. That “was fine to an extent … but she never successfully positioned herself as an innovative CEO who is seeking to bring new products and services to consumers.”

Bartz clearly didn’t have many friends on Wall Street. Yahoo’s shares rose more than 6% to $13.70 in after-hours trading on news of her exit. To be fair, the Journal story says Bartz got some credit inside the company for overhauling the organizational structure and challenging practices she thought were slowing things down. But she apparently made some wrong calls on the company’s U.S. ad sales campaign and in facing up to competition, the Journal adds.

Morse has sufficient momentum to build on, says Werbach, pointing to Yahoo’s “valuable assets, lots of users and some very talented people.” Yahoo needs to find a strong future strategy if it wants to remain an independent company, he adds. “The very few large tech companies that have successfully turned around [such as IBM and Apple] had long-term visions that played to their unique strengths.”

Some of that sounds familiar: Yahoo needs focus, according to Wharton experts who offered advice to Bartz in a January 2009 Knowledge@Wharton article. “Yahoo is this odd company that is part search, part technology and part media,” Kendall Whitehouse, Wharton’s director of new media, told K@W. The company “needs to pick one or two of those parts.”

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Google’s Motorola Bid: Big Patent Portfolio — but Potentially Big Headaches, Too

On Monday, Google announced plans to buy Motorola Mobility in a surprise $12.5 billion deal that gives the creator of the Android mobile operating system access to 17,000 patents and 7,500 patents in progress. Google was recently outbid by an industry consortium led by Apple and Microsoft in an auction for Nortel’s 6,000 patents. The wireless consortium won Nortel’s patents with a bid of $4.5 billion.

In a blog post, Google said the effort to outflank the company for Nortel’s patents amounted to an attack on Android. When Google announced the acquisition of Motorola Mobility, CEO Larry Page said the acquisition “will increase competition by strengthening Google’s patent portfolio, which will enable us to better protect Android from anti-competitive threats from Microsoft, Apple and other companies.”

Indeed, Google is facing a lawsuit from Oracle over Android, and partners such as HTC and Samsung are being sued by Apple over intellectual property.

With that backdrop, Wharton management professor David Hsu says that Google had little choice but to buy Motorola Mobility to beef up its patent portfolio — if only to fend off lawsuits. “It’s no surprise that people are talking about the intellectual property portfolio when it comes to Google and Motorola Mobility,” Hsu notes. “It seems that Google weighed the time and effort of dealing with the legal system — and paying royalties on each Android activation — with [the cost of] buying Motorola Mobility.”

Kevin Werbach, a legal studies and business ethics professor at Wharton, points out that by purchasing Motorola, Google is acquiring a series of “foundational” phone patents, given that Motorola created the first cell phone. “Motorola has been at this for a long time, and Google was looking for patents that others don’t control and would be scared of,” he says.

However, Werbach adds that there is more to Motorola Mobility than patents for Google. For instance, Google gets TV assets that can boost its television software efforts, as well as engineers who are well versed in the wireless market.

What’s unclear is how many complications Google will inherit just to acquire Motorola’s patent portfolio. Hsu says that because Motorola uses the Android platform, Google will likely end up in competition with its other Android partners, notably HTC and Samsung. Publicly, HTC and Samsung supported Google’s plans to buy Motorola. On a conference call, Page said that “many hardware partners have contributed to Android’s success, and we look forward to continuing our work with all of them on an equal basis.” He added that Android will remain open source, and key partners “share our enthusiasm for this combination.”

In the smartphone industry, competitors are fighting to win over software developers, create app markets and create platforms that are hits with consumers, Hsu notes. He questions how Google can keep Motorola Mobility on equal footing with other partners and manage perceptions. “Will there really be a Chinese wall inside the organization [between Google and Motorola]? There are clearly bundling opportunities [there] for Google.”

If Google really wanted to allay concerns with its Android partners, it could end Motorola Mobility’s manufacturing altogether, Hsu suggests. “Google could shut down Motorola manufacturing to prove it will be an even landscape. That would be a bold, but crazy, move.”

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Mother and Child Reunion … Or Not

AT&T’s proposed $39 billion takeover of T-Mobile, the fourth largest wireless carrier in the U.S., has ignited a debate about whether concentration in mobile services will be good for American consumers. Should the merger go through, AT&T would become the country’s top wireless provider with almost 130 million mobile subscribers. (Verizon, with 94 million subscribers, would be No. 2 and Sprint, with 50 million, would be No. 3.) This prospect of the re-emergence of Ma Bell – broken up by federal decree in 1984 — has set the digerati all atwitter, literally.  

AT&T executives justify the merger – and its hefty price tag – by pointing to the need for spectrum. To that argument, Kevin Werbach, a Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, responds: “This deal shows that in the wireless world, you can never be too rich, too thin, or have too much spectrum.”

As Werbach told the Wall Street Journal, “If the merger goes through, AT&T acquires T-Mobile’s licenses, minus anything it has to divest to satisfy antitrust review. The deal doesn’t put any more spectrum into wireless broadband overall. However, AT&T could use the combined spectrum more efficiently to improve its own service. It’s particularly valuable in markets such as New York and San Francisco where AT&T is very spectrum constrained today, and for the 4G rollout. And AT&T would have access to more cellular antenna towers, which are sometimes more of a bottleneck than the spectrum. On the other hand, the deal would reduce the number of wireless competitors, which is a serious concern.”

Gerald R. Faulhaber, a Wharton emeritus professor of business and public policy and former chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission, is also concerned about the deal. He says T-Mobile has always been an innovative company with a poor market presence. In many ways it is the weakest among the four national wireless carriers, he notes. While Faulhaber agrees that AT&T will gain spectrum through the merger, it is “not a substantial increase in capacity, and it looks like a very expensive way to get spectrum.”

Faulhaber’s principal concern with the AT&T-T-Mobile deal is that regulators are likely to shoot it down. “It reduces the wireless market from four providers to three. Even the Sprint-Nextel merger, which reduced the number of carriers from five to four, was iffy.” Faulhaber adds that he does not see what conditions the FCC could impose to make the merger work. “I don’t think the Justice Department will go for it,” he says. “If they view wireless as a national market, the odds of the merger going through are less than 25%.” If the Department of Justice considers local markets, though, “the odds would go up to 40% but its conditions would become stricter. The regulators might let the deal go through but only if AT&T were to agree to divest assets in places where the two companies are competitors. But if that were to happen, it would take all the gas out of the merger.”

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