Focus On: Kevin Werbach

Why Softbank’s Sprint Deal Is a High-wire Act

Sprint — the ailing U.S. mobile carrier — may just have been thrown a lifeline. Japan’s third-biggest mobile operator, Softbank, announced on Monday that it plans to acquire a 70% stake in the firm for $20 billion — the largest-ever overseas acquisition by a Japanese company, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The benefit for Sprint is clear: an immediate cash infusion. “Sprint has been struggling for years, and this deal should help them accelerate their network infrastructure plans to better compete with AT&T and Verizon,” says Michael Sinkinson, a professor of business economics and public policy at Wharton. The deal will also help Sprint maintain its lead over T-Mobile, which it has been battling for third place in the U.S. market (behind Verizon and AT&T), he notes. “However, any turnaround is likely still years away, as both infrastructure improvement and consumer acquisition are slow processes.”

But what’s in it for Softbank? According to Wharton emeritus professor of management Lawrence Hrebiniak, “The obvious benefits include entry into the large U.S. market and an ability to compete more forcefully as one of the largest telecommunications companies in the world, with 90 million subscribers…. This seems like a good move in an increasingly concentrated industry, and the geographical diversification or expansion certainly seems more strategic than sitting home and doing nothing…. Softbank is expressing some confidence with its move, but the hard part is yet to come” — that is, “[to] capture some advantage in the competitive U.S. market and, by extension, in a larger global market.”

Wharton marketing professor Raghuram Iyengar notes that while moving to another mature market is “certainly a risky move” for Softbank, “there is an upside potential … because Sprint has a major share in [wireless Internet provider] Clearwire, which has a lot of 4G spectrum. This, together with the latest push from the FCC to open up more wireless spectrum, will help Softbank establish itself as a major player in the U.S. market.”

Gerald Faulhaber, a Wharton emeritus professor of business economics and public policy, agrees. “Sprint is a good target for [Softbank], as Sprint is fairly spectrum-rich. Sprint also needs a capital infusion to expand its network into 4G LTE, where Softbank has solid experience. This will bring high-speed data to Sprint customers and allow the company to compete better against AT&T and Verizon….

“The firm at risk here is Softbank,” Faulhaber adds, because it will have to adjust to new regulators and consumer preferences. Still, “Softbank is probably the most ‘American’ of Japanese companies,” he notes. “They did very well as a broadband company by being innovative and aggressive, and customer-focused. In 2006, they bought Vodaphone Japan, and against my expectations, they have been quite successful in their entry into mobile telephony…. If it were another Japanese firm — say, DoCoMo or KDD — I would view their prospects as dim. But Softbank has pulled off real accomplishments suggesting that maybe they can pull this off.”

Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach agrees that Softbank may have what it takes to succeed. “AT&T and Verizon have consolidated the U.S. wireless market to the point where a no. 3 or no. 4 competitor isn’t viable without some differentiation…. In the Japanese market, Softbank has been an innovator in pricing models and packages for broadband and wireless. I expect it will try to be similarly creative here.”

One possibility, Werbach says, would be “for some novel partnership between Softbank/Sprint and Yahoo, which is a co-owner with Softbank of Yahoo Japan. Such an arrangement might not work in light of Google’s connection to the Android platform, and Sprint’s existing commitments to Apple for the iPhone, but it illustrates how new combinations of content and applications with mobile connectivity could produce different competitive options.”

The deal has to go through both antitrust and foreign ownership review, Werbach points out, so it will likely take some time before it is approved. If the deal does get approved, Werbach expects the company to introduce “a novel pricing scheme or other differentiation. [Softbank] has a track record of shaking things up in Japan, and I can’t see why it would want to own a flagging no. 3 carrier if it didn’t think it could change the dynamics of the U.S. market.”

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Patent Truth for Apple: Innovate to Stay on Top

Apple’s innovation model is being challenged in its patent spat with Samsung, even as its recent stock price climb made it the most valuable company in the U.S. Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach says the patent system in software and IT is “broken,” but the maker of the iconic iPhone, iPad and iPod devices has to keep innovating to stay ahead of competitors.

After a three-week trial in the U.S., the Apple-Samsung patent case went to jurors earlier this week, and a verdict is expected in the next few days. Apple has accused Samsung of copying its patented designs and software, and an adverse ruling for Samsung could result in a ban on some of its products in the U.S. In a countersuit, Samsung has also accused Apple of patent infringements. Today, a court in South Korea ruled that both companies violated each other’s patents, and ordered the firms to pay damages in addition to imposing a ban on sales of some of their products. 

According to Werbach, the dispute raises bigger questions about innovation, competition and patents. The patent system has become “a competitive weapon rather than a means of fostering innovation,” he says. The devices, services and systems in the Internet ecosystem depend on other parts of the system, and build on established foundations, he adds. “If restrictive licensing and relentless patent warfare become endemic to the Internet economy, growth and innovation are bound to suffer.”

Many core technological innovations — such as the communication protocols that underlie the Internet and the Unix foundation for Apple’s OS X operating system — are available to anyone for free, thanks to the involvement of governments, academic institutions and far-sighted innovators, Werbach points out. “Vast amounts of money have been made on top of the innovations they gave away.”

Apple’s growing rivalry with Samsung seems understandable. Samsung has the largest share of the global smartphone market — 21.6% in this year’s second quarter, compared to 16.3% in the same quarter last year, according to research firm Gartner. Apple’s market share for its iPhone also grew in the same period — from 4.5% to 6.9%, which places it third in the sector, behind Nokia with 19.9% share.

However, Apple made history when its market capitalization crossed $623 billion on Monday. That makes it worth 17 times as much as Ford Motor Company, seven times as much as McDonald’s Corporation and 13 times as valuable as Facebook, according to a Los Angeles Times report. Microsoft had until now held the crown of being the most valuable U.S. company, based on a $621 billion market cap in 1999.

Werbach says he isn’t surprised about Apple’s valuation peak, although its continued dominance isn’t guaranteed. Market cap honors can be transient because they fluctuate based on investor expectations. Ultimately, innovation will remain the key for the company to stay ahead of its competitors. “Apple makes real things that people pay real money for, with consistently strong margins — which requires huge resources to compete against in a growing global market. That’s a good place to be.”

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Zynga’s Potentially Losing Game

Analysts are taking another look at the online social games industry after Zynga missed the mark in its second-quarter earnings report. The San Francisco-based creator of such popular online games as FarmVille and Mafia Wars had a dizzying market capitalization of $8.5 billion after its IPO last December. That has fallen to $2.21 billion following its latest results and outlook announcement last Wednesday. The firm’s second-quarter revenues were $332 million, lower than analysts’ expectations of $343 million.

The company, which claims 60 million daily active users, also lowered projected bookings for the year (the amount users pay up front for virtual goods they consume while playing) to between $1.15 billion and $1.23 billion from an earlier forecast of $1.47 billion. Zynga blamed its setbacks principally on “delays in launching new games [and] a faster decline in existing web games due in part to a more challenging environment on the Facebook web platform.” The firm’s share price has plummeted from about $15 in early March to about $3 at Friday’s close.

Zynga mainly hosts its games on Facebook, although recently the company began offering games on its own site to reduce its dependence on the social network giant. “Zynga can’t afford to put all its eggs in Facebook’s basket, but neither can it live without the enormous push that it gets from its Facebook relationship,” said Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics Kevin Werbach in a previous Knowledge@Wharton article about the game developer’s prospects.

According to Eric Clemons, a Wharton professor of operations and information management, Zynga’s real problem is the lack of staying power that its products seem to have. He compares social games by Zynga and others to a fad like pet rocks — plain rocks that were sold by the millions in 1975 as “pets” in boxes before they quickly faded from view. In a bid to boost revenues, Zynga recently partnered with toy maker Hasbro to merchandise its games, but Clemons isn’t impressed by that, either. “Pet rocks were not followed by pet erasers” or other merchandising that were able to extend their lifecycle in any way, he notes.

Clemons points out what he sees as another shortcoming in Zynga’s business model: FarmVille players have to pay for plants, livestock or tractors to cultivate their virtual farms. “FarmVille never made any sense to me,” he says. “I have no use for games where you pay to improve your performance.” It could serve its purpose as a transient distraction from boredom, he concedes, but predicts that fickle users will require new distractions to keep them engaged. In fact, CityVille, which was launched after FarmVille, has already eclipsed FarmVille’s popularity, and the firm launched six new games last quarter.

In the previous Knowledge@Wharton article on Zynga, Wharton emeritus management professor Lawrence Hrebiniak warned of that very challenge. “Zynga’s business model depends on developing cool games and new titles to replace older ones,” he noted. “How long can Zynga do that? By the time [its] Facebook deal expires, Zynga may not be viable.”

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Mobile Penetration Surges — Now, Where Are the Ads?

The rapid growth in mobile phone use worldwide is good news for marketers and service providers, but challenges persist in monetizing that penetration.

Despite the fact that mobile users now make up 10% of all online traffic, ad spend in the U.S. on mobile was only 1% of the total, compared with 22% on the Internet, according to a report released last month by Silicon Valley venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB). Desktop Internet access scored over mobile phones in terms of average revenue per user (ARPU), the report noted: Last year, the ARPU from desktop Internet users was an estimated $49, while it ranged from below $4 to about $18 for mobile advertising at companies like Pandora, Zynga and others.

But advertisers have found desktop Internet advertising more expensive than mobile. The effective cost per thousand views in traditional online advertising is $3.50, compared with 75 cents on mobile devices, according to the report.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of information and operations management, says it makes sense that the ARPU is lower in mobile than on the traditional web. Mobile devices have limited screen space, and that makes it difficult to implement advertising efficiently, he points out. The nature of mobile usage presents another obstacle. “Most people access [data] on-the-go and are looking to pull information,” he says of mobile users. “Therefore, they are unlikely to linger around to consume other information/content that is pushed to them.”

However, Hosanagar finds significant untapped potential for other forms of monetization in the mobile space. “A key difference is that while most content on the web is offered for free, paid content and apps are very much thriving on the mobile side.” The monetization model on mobile will be based less on advertising and more on paid content than the traditional Internet, he says.

The KPCB report also noted that the global Internet user population (including both desktop and mobile access) grew 8% in 2011 to 2.3 billion, led by China (513 million users) and followed by the U.S. (245 million users). A Cisco report, also released in May, put the number of Internet connections worldwide at 10.3 billion at the end of 2011, and projected that the number will grow to 18.9 billion by 2016. Driving that trend will be smartphones, tablets and other handheld devices. India will see Internet traffic grow the fastest, followed by Brazil and South Africa, according to a Bloomberg report.

As all that growth plays out, Hosanagar sees “a big opportunity” ahead for Internet service providers, but he notes that there are obstacles. “Their worry, of course, is that they might end up as dumb pipes carrying bits. If so, their services will become commoditized and have lower margins.” However, he doesn’t see service providers facing difficulties in monetizing their investments in infrastructure with continued traffic growth in the medium term, especially with the increasing popularity of online video.

And while there has been tremendous progress in network speeds in recent years, the world has only harnessed a fraction of the Internet’s potential so far. “We are still having the same conversation we had 15 years ago, before the broadband revolution,” Kevin Werbach, a Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, said in a recent Knowledge@Wharton article. His comments came after a conference on broadband trends in April at Wharton’s San Francisco campus, organized by the school’s Mack Center on Technological Innovation and the Palo Alto-based Institute for the Future.

“We’re clearly at a fork in the road, but it’s not really clear yet what the branches are,” Werbach said about the evolution of Internet technology. “The most interesting questions are usually the hardest ones to answer.”

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Yahoo, Thompson and the Inflated Resume Problem

Only four months into his tenure, Yahoo CEO Scott Thompson was forced to step down last weekend because of a misstatement of his academic credentials in a regulatory filing. According to reports, Thompson’s official biography cited degrees in computer science and accounting from Stonehill College, whereas his actual degree was in accounting alone.

Dissatisfied activist shareholders called public attention to the error in early May. At first, Thompson said he was not aware of the misstatement, but according to the Wall Street Journal, an internal investigation at the company showed that he had allowed the inaccuracy to appear on his resume for several years. The company is now looking into whether it can fire Thompson “with cause,” which, the Journal notes, would cost him severance pay.

Meanwhile, Thompson, who replaced former CEO Carol Bartz, is the fourth chief executive to leave the firm in five years. (The company has announced that executive vice president Ross Levinsohn will serve as interim CEO.)

Given the company’s recent struggles — including declining market share and growing competition from Google and Facebook — was the decision to force Thompson out a smart one? “Scott Thompson had to go,” says Wharton operations and information management professor Maurice Schweitzer. “A fabrication on the resume costs you credibility and suggests values that place impression management above substance. This is a critical concern for Yahoo. Yahoo needs to credibly signal to the market that [it is] providing real value.”

For Thompson, “this issue is particularly serious, because he had just assumed the CEO position and had no great leadership accomplishments with which to counter the loss of credibility created by his embellished resume,” Schweitzer adds. Moreover, “the activist shareholders seeking to oust Thompson made this particularly problematic for him. When someone is motivated, you will not get the benefit of the doubt.”

A Knowledge@Wharton story on what happens when exaggeration crosses the line notes that while the urge to embellish may be part of human nature, if left unchecked, it can have career-altering consequences. “Thompson probably added material to his resume years ago as he began his climb up the corporate ladder,” Schweitzer notes. “It was wrong for him to start off with that misstatement on his resume, but as he assumed managerial roles, he should have definitely corrected this. I think leaders fail to anticipate the scrutiny they will get. What has worked for them in the past — what they have gotten away with in the past — doesn’t work when [they are] under a real spotlight.”

Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach agrees that “Thompson had to go,” but he says that the situation “reinforces the impression of Yahoo as the gang that can’t shoot straight. Now the question is whether the new leadership will continue some of his controversial decisions, such as [Yahoo's recently initiated] patent litigation against Facebook. Yet another strategic shift will create more distraction for the company.”

What can Yahoo do to regain its footing following this latest stumble? According to Werbach, “There is still a great deal of value at Yahoo. At this point, though, I have a hard time believing that any CEO could restore the company to a leadership position in the Internet market. It can be a profitable business if it scales back its ambitions and focuses on operational efficiency, but under that scenario, it will gradually lose out to more dynamic players. The alternative is a more radical shift, such as breaking up the company or becoming an open platform alternative to Google, Apple and Facebook. I would only recommend that latter course if the new management team is in it for the long haul.”

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How Adobe Is Finding Its Creative Sweet Spot

Software maker Adobe Systems last Monday unveiled a new version of its biggest product, the Creative Suite 6 software package used by graphic and digital designers. The update comes with a twist — a $49.99 monthly subscription plan as an alternative to the regular purchase price of between $1,299 and $2,599. The subscription plan is part of Adobe’s recently launched Creative Cloud offer, and a component of the firm’s broader effort to expand its market and win more customers among corporate marketing departments.

Wharton experts see both as smart responses from an agile company in an evolving market. “It’s a tweak to a business model. But it is a natural progression,” says Wharton marketing professor Peter Fader. “The whole idea of s-commerce or subscription-commerce is becoming increasingly popular. Plenty of other software providers have made moves in this direction or spoken about it (e.g., Oracle and SAP). You don’t tend to see it quite often at such a high price point, but it is no less sensible at that price point than it is for more mundane items and services.”

For Adobe, s-commerce could mean more than a marketing play. The company is still smarting from losing a battle last year with Apple. Late Apple CEO Steve Jobs banned Adobe’s Flash multimedia platform from Apple iOS devices, calling it unreliable, insecure and a battery suck. Adobe countered Apple’s claims, but last November the company announced that it would cease developing the media player for mobile devices and instead focus on the HTML5 technology that Jobs championed. The company last year also shuttered a business unit aimed at information technology departments and overhauled the business model for its Creative Suite software, as a Wall Street Journal article recounts. “If you’re going to make a left shift, you don’t increment your way there,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen told the Journal.

Wharton new media director Kendall Whitehouse says “it’s worth noting how flexible Adobe Systems has been in terms of both product focus and business model over the past 30 years.” He recalls the company starting by selling its PostScript software to printer manufacturers even when that was not in its original business plan. The firm then expanded to become a shrink-wrapped desktop software company with programs including Illustrator, Photoshop and Acrobat, before further growing to offer web development tools, mobile solutions and enterprise product offerings. (Adobe co-founders Charles Geschke and John Warnock recounted the firm’s evolution in interviews with Knowledge@Wharton in 2008 and 2010, respectively.)

“This latest repositioning — focusing on integrating desktop, mobile and cloud technologies and offering a subscription-based pricing plan — is only the latest evolution of the company,” says Whitehouse. In a 2011 Knowledge@Wharton article after Adobe announced its Creative Cloud plan, Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach noted that “the old model of selling software in a box or [through] an enterprise server license and then charging for periodic upgrades has been disrupted.”

Adobe’s resolve to more actively sell its design tools to marketing departments at companies also seems to be a sound business decision, according to Fader and Whitehouse. But Fader doesn’t read the move as a reaction to the Flash debacle or “a desperate move” to boost revenues. In fact, “it’s much tamer than that … and a sensible way to change the nature of the relationship,” he says.

Whitehouse, too, suggests that Adobe’s “focus on marketing makes sense.” But he doesn’t see that as an easy game. “Of the various approaches Adobe has taken over time, perhaps the most challenging has been the company’s attempts to become an enterprise software company,” he notes. “Becoming a large-scale enterprise software and services company is a difficult transition for a consumer-based software company. All the same, the renewed focus on marketing takes advantage of Adobe’s enterprise offerings while staying close to the designer/creative ‘prosumer’ [professional consumer] customer the company knows well.”

Adobe expects customers to move to subscriptions gradually but has still warned investors that its growth will suffer as it changes to the new model, according to the Journal report. But Fader isn’t worried about that. “To [Adobe's] credit, it is a much more broadly diversified company than most people think,” he says.

Fader sees Adobe’s business as one where companies are going to win some and lose some. “It’s a portfolio play and not everyone can be a perfect market capturing sensation,” he notes. “Overall, I’m upbeat about their future. They have a lot of good products and services in the pipeline.”

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Netflix’s Next Episode: Winning Back What It Lost

Streaming media and DVD rental provider Netflix is facing renewed scrutiny over its business model after announcing poor first-quarter results on Monday. The Los Gatos, Calif.-based company reported a $4.6 million loss in the quarter ending March 31, compared with a profit of $60.2 million in the year-earlier quarter. Its revenues, meanwhile, grew 21% from $718.6 million to $869.8 million. Following the news, the firm’s stock has fallen more than 19% (as of this morning).

Clearly, Netflix has yet to recover from its recent 60% price increase and failed attempt last September to spin off its DVD delivery business. The company’s U.S. customer base has eroded from 24.6 million last June to 23.4 million currently. (It also operates in Canada.)

Netflix’s problem is threefold: content partners, competitors and customers, according to Wharton operations and information management professor Kartik Hosanagar. “First, it was obvious that Netflix’s original margins were not sustainable in the long run,” he says. “Netflix secured some of its early [content] licenses at very low costs, and it was clear that the content owners would seek more the next time around.” That explains why the company’s costs have gone up over the last year — and the situation is unlikely to get better, he adds.

Increased competition is Netflix’s second hurdle, says Hosanagar. He points to the likes of Hulu and Amazon and also to streaming services being introduced by cable-TV firms like Comcast. “This competition will only get worse in the next 12 to 24 months.”

Customer loyalty represents Netflix’s third problem, he notes. “Customers used to be Netflix’s biggest strength.” But the past year “hasn’t been great for Netflix” because of several missteps — the most important of which were the debacle with pricing and the spinoff plans, he adds.

Netflix’s solutions lie in continuing to grow its customer base and “up-selling existing customers” — or launching higher-value offerings — to address the partner and competitor issues, Hosanagar says. “Going forward, the key to Netflix’s success will be to win back customer confidence. Investor confidence and Wall Street will follow.”

Filmmaker James Kerwin took a dour view of the business model behind Netflix’s streaming business in an interview with Knowledge@Wharton in January 2011, soon after Netflix announced its offering of streaming movies and videos. The company’s model is not economically sustainable, he noted, because studios will find that streaming rights cannibalize their DVD sales. He also warned that fee increases were inevitable: “Netflix is going to have to jack up the rates that their customers pay and/or they are going to have to limit the number of videos that a customer can stream per month — because the studios are going to start demanding higher rates. Otherwise, this is just going to implode.”

According to Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach, much of the criticism of Netflix “is overblown, just as the company was over-hyped earlier.” Netflix is still fundamentally well-positioned to exploit the ongoing transformation of video, he says. “Ultimately, Netflix will have to provide value-add, whether in its recommendations, knowledge of its users or ability to function as an independent ‘honest broker’ unaffiliated with all the other industry segments involved,” he notes. “The basic function of getting any content users want to any platform, whenever users want it, will become the table stakes.”

Technology companies, including Netflix, are increasingly adopting the concept of customer lifetime value (CLV), Wharton marketing professor Peter Fader noted in a recent Knowledge@Wharton article. CLV is a marketing formula based on the idea that firms should spend money up front, and sacrifice initial profits, to gain customers whose loyalty and increased business will reap rewards over the long term. According to Fader, following a CLV model can keep companies from panicking when making big strategic decisions. An example he offers is Netflix’s move to raise subscription prices as its business focus shifted from offering DVDs by mail to the streaming model. In Fader’s view, Netflix was smart in the way it split its business and pricing, but not so in the way it announced those changes.

Still, for Netflix, such “screw-ups are a blip,” he said. “Dropped subscriptions are likely to be picked up again because Netflix really doesn’t have a comparable competitor.”

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The $100 Billion Facebook Question

Facebook’s long-awaited initial public offering filing has landed, and the company is likely to see the largest market debut ever. And while retail investors are expected to gobble up Facebook shares, experts at Wharton point out that there is no guarantee the social network giant will be a long-term winner on the stock market.

First of all, it’s unclear whether Facebook can grow into its estimated valuation of roughly $75 billion to $100 billion, says Luke Taylor, a Wharton finance professor.

On the surface, Facebook, which will trade under the ticker FB, looks like a juggernaut. The company has 845 million monthly active users, who contribute 250 million photo uploads and 2.7 billion comments a day. The company’s financial picture also looks good. For the year ended December 31, Facebook reported net income of $1 billion on revenues of $3.71 billion. In 2010, the firm saw net income of $606 million on revenues of $1.97 billion.

It’s not certain when Facebook will actually go public, but press reports estimate that late April or May is a likely target. Taylor notes that Facebook’s debut prospects will largely depend on how the Nasdaq trades and other market conditions. (The Nasdaq index is often viewed as a proxy for the tech industry.) How will the company’s shares trade ultimately? Facebook is likely to capture the imagination of retail investors, but so-called “smart investors” may pare back demand. “It’s not automatically true that Facebook will soar,” Taylor points out.

What will Facebook’s long-term profits look like? According to Taylor, companies often show strong profits heading into an IPO, but then they drop afterward. He adds that there is a lot of debate about whether the profit drop is related to less innovation or just the higher expenses that come with being a public company. In its IPO prospectus, Facebook cites Sarbanes-Oxley compliance costs as a potential profit margin hit.

Another pitfall would be what Taylor calls “short-termism.” Managers of newly public companies “often become myopic and focus on short-term numbers. That’s a risk of going public.” In a previous Knowledge@Wharton story about Facebook’s future on the open market, Wharton management professor Lawrence Hrebiniak cited a similar risk. “The challenge for Facebook will be to keep top executives focused on strategy and not regulation.”

In a letter to potential shareholders, CEO Mark Zuckerberg noted that “Facebook was not originally founded to be a company. We’ve always cared primarily about our social mission, the services we’re building and the people who use them. This is a different approach for a public company to take.”

Lastly, the company may feel the effects of management turnover, as some managers cash out and the leadership team looks to hire seasoned executives to help steer the company while it matures. “Facebook’s IPO will be a massive liquidity event for thousands of employees,” Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach said in the Knowledge@Wharton article. “Many of them have already monetized at least some of their stock options through private secondary market activity, but the IPO will still be a massive wealth transfer. It’s difficult to retain employees who have already made millions of dollars on their stock options.”

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