Focus On: Pinar Yildirim

What’s the Deal with Groupon?

groupon-logoThe firing of Groupon CEO Andrew Mason earlier this month set off a new round of speculation about the daily-deal company’s prospects. The announcement came a day after the firm’s most recent dismal quarterly earnings report. Although sales had risen 30% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, the company reported a loss of 12 cents a share and indicated that its earnings for the first quarter would be much lower than analysts’ expectations. According to an article in Bloomberg, Groupon’s losses in the last three years have totaled $723.8 million. The firm’s board has begun searching for external candidates to replace Mason, the article noted.

What does the company need to do to turn its fortunes around? K@W Today asked Wharton marketing professor Pinar Yildirim what advice she would offer to Groupon’s next CEO.   

K@W Today: What are Groupon’s biggest challenges?

Pinar Yildirim: The firing of Groupon’s CEO came after the company had been in trouble for months. [Mason] has left, but the big problems that led to his firing are still hanging over the company.

The Groupon business model relies on a “two-sided” network. On the one side are businesses that provide discounts, and on the other side are the customers. The difficulty is aligning the needs of the two sides. For example, businesses benefit from Groupon when they increase market share or sell excess capacity/inventory. But Groupon relies on customer “disloyalty” since it encourages customers to switch to whichever firm offers the deepest discount. Thus, the current Groupon model does not allow for a perfect alignment between the two sides of its network, and it is questionable how sustainable such a business model can be.

The bigger issue facing Groupon is the dense competitive market. There are too many players offering deals, and this market is more segmented today than ever. [Also], Groupon has to be able to compete with specialized discount sites. For example, some discount sites target higher income consumers by specializing in high-end or luxury offers — Jetsetter, Gilt Groupe, etc. Others target consumers based on products; [they] offer discounts only for shows, food, travel, etc.

More importantly, with the entry of Google Offers and Amazon Local, Groupon will have very fierce competition. Google, in particular, has incremental competitive power because it can combine search with discounts. Whenever a consumer searches for a service or product offering, Google can redirect them to its own offers.

K@W Today: Will the introduction of the company’s “Groupon Goods” venture (which sells discounted goods over the Internet) help to shift the company’s prospects in any way?

Yildirim: Groupon Goods will potentially increase revenue. It is offering a broader range of products from many producers. [For that reason,] it is less dependent on the challenges of the service sector. Second, it is moving from a “local offers” model to a nationwide offers model, increasing the consumer base.

K@W Today: Any advice for the incoming CEO?

Yildirim: Aiming for a sustainable business model should be the target of the new CEO. Daily deal websites can be successful if they align discount offers with business needs. For example, a new store might be in need of increasing awareness, whereas a more established business might need to get rid of excess inventory or fill excess capacity and might benefit from offering Groupons seasonally. This alignment requires optimization of when to offer Groupons and how many Groupons to make available.

The new CEO should focus on programs that encourage repeat buying. If consumers have an incentive to repeat-buy from businesses that offer discounts, more and better firms may want to partner with Groupon. When businesses win, Groupon wins. So, [there needs to be] more focus on delivering to the business side.

I also recommend lifting the Groupon image by giving discounts on higher quality items — and some exclusive offers — particularly via Groupon Goods. Currently, the offers have very little competitive power and little branding.

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How Instagram Can Make Money — Without Alienating Users

Photo-sharing site Instagram recently upset many of its users by suggesting in an amended terms of service agreement that the site might start using their photos in ads. Instagram later retracted the change, but the controversy raises questions about Instagram’s business model and how its owner, Facebook, might eventually make a profit from the free service. Wharton marketing professor Pinar Yildirim says the answer is to build a mutually rewarding relationship with its users.

Within two years of its launch, Instagram has grown to 100 million users who have posted some five billion photos. But loyalties run fickle in the world of online services. A day after its revised terms-of-service prompted outrage among users, Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom clarified in a blog post that his company didn’t intend to sell users’ photos to advertisers. The service was working to update the terms to make them clearer, he added. But some damage had been done: Within a week of the first announcement, Instagram’s number of daily active users fell from 16.4 million to 12.4 million, social media traffic tracking firm AppData told the New York Post. Many unhappy Instagram users threatened to take their photos to rivals like Yahoo-owned Flickr, which recently revamped its mobile app, along with Instaport.me and InstaBackup, according to a New York Times report.

Facebook, which bought Instagram last April for $1 billion, “needed some of Instagram’s functionality, and Instagram is worth much more to Facebook than it is alone,” Wharton operations and information management professor Eric Clemons told KnowledgeToday soon after the purchase.

But the big question for Instagram is how to become profitable. Yildirim suggests several viable routes for Instagram to monetize its services, including low-risk options such as charging subscription fees, selling photo products and selling advertising. Higher-risk options include commercializing users’ photos and selling data to third parties. “Depending on which route they take, their major competitor will vary,” she adds.

“The first two options of monetization are relatively straightforward to implement and would result in low backlash from the consumers,” Yildirim notes. Most photo services allow for free subscriptions and limited storage, and begin charging for storage beyond a certain level. Flickr, which has such offerings, would become more of a competitor if Instagram pursues the subscription route. “The difficulty comes from convincing consumers to switch,” she says.

Instagram could also choose the option of selling advertising, including location-based or contextual ads relevant to the text or content of users’ photos, according to Yildirim. But unlike search engine-based advertising, advertising on Instagram would create some difficulties, she adds. “Technologies to process images [and offer ads based on the content in the photos] are not all that advanced at this point, but soon they will be.”

Another option for Instagram is to monetize its services in a way that would allow consumers to get “something in exchange” for their photos being appropriated for ads or other uses, says Yildirim. “There is an … opportunity for user-generated advertising for Instagram and YouTube. Creations — images and videos — of consumers can be picked up by firms for promotional purposes and distributed. It is cheaper to create promotional content this way, and ads can be more effective when the material comes from loyal consumers rather than an advertising agency.”

For such a strategy to have a chance of garnering the support of users, Yildirim notes, Instagram would need to give photographers some sort of recognition — monetary or otherwise — when their photos are picked up on the app and subsequently used in advertisements. “I think we will be moving in this direction,” she predicts, noting that on Twitter, “brands are collecting consumer photos and distributing them through tweets and re-tweets. There is no reason why this activity cannot be monetized.”

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Twitter and Instagram: The Current Skirmish, Unfiltered

“My photos don’t look right.” That’s what the latest round of the Instagram/Twitter fight boiled down to for users of the micro-blogging site this week.

For Twitter and Instagram, and for Instagram’s owner, Facebook, however, the fight is more about ongoing efforts by each company to take greater control of its platform and to encourage users to engage in one-stop shopping, Wharton marketing professor Pinar Yildirim says.

On Monday, the photo-sharing program disabled the function that made images display properly in tweets, forcing users to go directly to Instagram to view and comment on photos. The same day, Twitter retaliated by unveiling a version of its mobile app that included Instagram-like filters. That was just the latest in a battle that began brewing after Facebook bought Instagram in April. Shortly after the purchase, Twitter deactivated a feature that allowed users to transfer their friends lists to the photo-sharing site.

“Facebook and Twitter are still apples and oranges to a certain extent,” Yildirim says. “[The] nature and content use of Twitter is different from that of Instagram or Facebook. Instagram and Facebook are a lot more personal, and Twitter has a more professional/news sense to it.”

But neither Facebook nor Twitter is necessarily content to remain in its niche, particularly not when valuable user data and advertising returns are at stake. Twitter, in particular, has recently made a number of moves to take greater control of its platform, including making changes to its developer ecosystem and limiting the access that third-party applications have to information like users’ friends lists. “The moves by Twitter are certainly a strategic approach to strengthen its advertising power, but it is also about taking control of the data market,” Yildirim notes. “Given the ad revenue that Twitter generates, it only makes sense that the company is making the effort to control the information contained in tweets.”

The micro-blogging site has become an important customer service and market research tool for a number of firms, she adds, but with that comes a greater burden for Twitter to make sure the site isn’t targeted by spam or hackers, and that third-party firms are using consumer data properly. “Twitter has been a relatively effortless member of the social media arena; they kept things simple,” Yildirim says. “But simplicity can be a missed opportunity. Why give Facebook or others the privilege of their own information space? People can share a lot of information with a single photo, and they want to do that.”

The opportunity to collect such data was a key reason that Instagram was worth $1 billion to Facebook, she points out. “If you are Facebook, you want one thing from people: You want them to share data. The more they share, the more active they and their networks become, and the more attractive Facebook stock will look in the short run.”

That’s why, even though Facebook has also introduced the increasingly ubiquitous set of photo filters, Yildirim expects that Instagram will remain a separate entity for the foreseeable future. “Did Instagram make it more fun for people to share photos with friends? Yes. Did it make users more likely to share instant photos? I believe it did,” Yildirim says. “And sharing implies having more to give back to stockholders and advertisers.” Instagram, she adds, “was a long-term investment for Facebook in the data collection and controlling game. Owning people’s photo archives is a great source of personal information.”

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Facebook’s New ‘Social Jobs’ App — Like or Dislike?

Last week, Facebook announced that it was stepping up its efforts in the job search and recruitment arena by offering a new app that allows users to peruse employment opportunities aggregated from existing job boards such as Monster, Jobvite and BranchOut. Although Facebook is already viewed as an active but informal platform for job seekers who want to network, the company’s “Social Jobs” app will allow users to search approximately 1.7 million jobs by keyword and location, and then apply for positions without leaving the site. Facebook users can also share open positions with others in their networks by “liking” those jobs. The app is the culmination of a yearlong partnership with government agencies and human resources consortia, including the U.S. Department of Labor and the Direct Employers Association.

What does this new development mean for Facebook, its users and major players in the job search market, such as LinkedIn? K@W Today asked Wharton marketing professor Pinar Yildirim and Wharton emeritus management professor Lawrence G. Hrebiniak for their take.

K@W Today: Strategy-wise, is this a good move for Facebook?

Pinar Yildirim: Since its IPO, Facebook has been feeling the pressure to make business moves that will bring in quick money for its shareholders. This pressure results in some moves with short-term benefits but long-term costs.

Facebook started out as a social platform for a homogenous clientele. It had college students who shared similar interests and lifestyles. Users on Facebook felt comfortable sharing information and networking with close friends. It allowed for an easy and time-efficient way of keeping in touch. As Facebook gradually got larger and larger, the average user started adding her boss, parents, colleagues, neighbors or the random stranger she met at a party to her network. Her network was no longer homogenous. The quality of information shared among friends also went down significantly. Overall, users started to share less and less personal and intimate information.

Trading in quality of information for volume was a mistake, because the archive of personal information is the biggest value of Facebook to advertisers. Imagine what an opportunity it provides when a consumer shares personal information; [an advertiser is] able to target a consumer as soon as she shares information on everyday events — like where she is going out that night, what TV show she is hooked on, etc. — or life events like getting engaged, becoming pregnant, breaking up with a boyfriend and so on. Yes, Facebook added features like lists and friend groups to prevent the quality of information shared from going down, but let’s be honest: The average consumer is lazy, busy and not keeping up to date with settings on every website she uses. Most people would rather post less private information than spend hours creating lists of friends.

Facebook missed an opportunity and has been seeing disappointing advertising numbers. As a result, it is now turning to other options. Social jobs is one of them. Integrating ads into feeds is another attempt. I expect many others to follow.

In the short term, the Social Jobs app might help Facebook raise money as corporations will pay for posting jobs on Facebook, particularly given the unemployment numbers. Many firms are interested in getting personal information on a candidate. But in the long term, this move is likely to further degrade the quality of information people share. Users will be more careful about what they say or post on Facebook, because it might be evaluated by a potential employer one day. And this might further hurt the advertising dollars.

In summary, it is a good short-term move, but likely to have negative consequences on advertising in the long term.

Lawrence G. Hrebiniak: The Social Jobs app is a good strategic move by Facebook…. Facebook has a massive user base, and the Social Jobs app allows it to build on its people-reaching capabilities and grow in an area in which the company currently has a minor presence. This clearly is a strategic move [for Facebook] to test its mettle against LinkedIn, and the targeted company shouldn’t take Facebook’s actions lightly.

K@W Today: What will this mean for LinkedIn?

Hrebiniak: LinkedIn’s Talent Solutions unit is its bread-and-butter, revenue-producing division, and Facebook would like a big bite of this lucrative market. Of this there is no doubt. The drop in LinkedIn’s stock price after Facebook’s announcement is strong evidence that investors clearly see the looming threat to the company.

LinkedIn currently has good working relationships with headhunters and a history of effective performance serving them. It needs to use these contacts to continue differentiating its capabilities in the marketplace. It must work hard to ensure that Facebook doesn’t become more than a simple list of jobs, and must use its strengths to keep Facebook from gaining traction with its headhunters and other allies. This is a strategic shot across LinkedIn’s bow, and it had better respond to the warning. This will be a battle of muscle vs. muscle, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Yildirim: LinkedIn will have competition, but users of LinkedIn created more than just resumes in the past years. They created communities; they established interest groups. And there are consumers with existing subscriptions. Switching will be costly.

On the other hand, Facebook can become a serious rival for jobs where social skills matter. Sales positions and jobs in the entertainment industry are examples. Facebook can offer years of proof of leadership, communication and social interaction information history and photos. LinkedIn cannot yet offer such information or information on the personality of a person outside of the work environment.

K@W Today: Are traditional job boards like Monster.com and Indeed likely to disappear altogether?

Yildirim: It is important to listen to what past bosses, clients and co-workers say about a candidate during the hiring process — but not necessarily for every position. There are many positions where firms simply do not have the time or desire to collect information on a person’s social life. Or they prefer to evaluate the candidates through their own filtering mechanisms. Similarly, for highly skilled or specialized jobs, resumes matter more than what others say about you. There will be traditional hiring for such jobs, and traditional job sites will survive.  

K@W Today: Do you see any privacy concerns for Facebook users with this development?

Yildirim: I see many privacy concerns with online social networks and search engines, simply because they sit on too much private information and they archive it. Personal information is collected over the course of one’s life. Kids born today will have a digital archive of their entire lives online — initiated by their parents posting baby pictures on Facebook, [followed by those kids] creating a Facebook page at a very young age.

Such archives might become very useful one day for advertisers and researchers, but at the same time, they will be a headache for some others…. It is up to people and policy makers to say “no” to the archiving of their personal data beyond their approval.

A final note: I expect markets to create paid alternatives to firms that violate privacy. The number of such alternatives and small initiatives are increasing. DuckDuckGo (a search engine focusing on privacy) is an example.

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