Focus On: Kartik Hosanagar

How Nokia Can Regain Lost Ground

Nokia LumiaFinnish mobile phone maker Nokia faces new questions about its turnaround strategy after its win-some-lose-some performance in the latest quarter. First, the good news: The firm narrowed net losses to 272 million euros ($354 million) from 928 million euros ($1.2 billion) in the same period a year ago. Sales of its Lumia range of smartphones grew 27% to 5.6 million units.

However, the bigger picture eclipses those gains. Once the leading smartphone maker, Nokia is today a tiny player in that market, compared to Apple and Samsung’s combined sales of more than 100 million devices last quarter. Last quarter’s bad news for Nokia included a 20% revenue drop to 5.85 billion euros ($7.6 billion) as sales of its basic mobile phones – its mainstay – dropped by more than a fifth.

How can Nokia build on its strengths to regain lost ground? The firm’s top priority should be to focus on pushing sales of its smartphones in emerging markets, according to Kartik Hosanagar, Wharton professor of operations and information management. “Nokia already enjoys good brand recognition in those markets,” he says. Because low-cost Android phones have eaten into the company’s basic phone sales, it should look to sell lower-cost versions of its Lumia range there, he adds.

Hosanagar notes that Nokia “made a bit of a mistake by overlooking Android” and pegging its entire smartphone fortunes to the Windows 8 operating system. “Given its decision to focus on hardware, it need not have locked itself into one specific software. Having Android would have helped Nokia.” Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS power 90% of the world’s smartphones, followed by BlackBerry (5.9%) and Microsoft’s Windows 8 (3.1%).

Not surprisingly, the Apple and Android operating systems also have the highest number of smartphone applications. “Hardware companies often end up at the bottom of the food chain in a sector like smartphones, where software and an ecosystem of developers and applications are ways that different players set themselves apart,” Wharton management professor Saikat Chaudhuri noted in a Knowledge@Wharton article last August on the shakeout in the smartphone market.

However, Nokia has some untapped potential in its partnership with Microsoft, which is well positioned in the enterprise market made up of business users. “That is a market where Microsoft has continued to remain strong,” Hosanagar notes. “Nokia should look to leverage Microsoft and push enterprise sales some more.”

The Nokia-Microsoft partnership works well for both parties, says Hosanagar. For Microsoft, the deal with Nokia was “a really good one. Microsoft has not been historically strong with hardware, so it didn’t make sense for Microsoft to own both hardware and software the way that Apple does. And given that its old partner, Samsung, had started to go the Android route, Microsoft needed a strong hardware partner and found that in Nokia.”

According to Hosanagar, Nokia and Microsoft have enough incentives to work closely together. “I suspect they [will] leverage each other’s strengths and will get some growth for Lumia,” he says.

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Is Apple on the Ropes?

appleIn announcing results for its fiscal 2013 second quarter ended March 30, 2013, Apple posted revenue of $43.6 billion and net profit of $9.5 billion ($10.09 a share). These compared to revenues of $39.2 billion and net profit of $11.6 billion ($12.30 a share) in its second quarter 2012.

In other words, profits are down — the first time in a decade — and demand for its products, specifically its iPhones and iPads — was up. (Sales of Macs were slightly below last year’s numbers.)

CEO Tim Cook’s message on Apple’s website is that “our teams are hard at work on some amazing new hardware, software and services and we are very excited about the products in our pipeline.” Yet in a conference call with analysts, he declined to give specific dates for those new-product rollouts, noting only that they will be coming out in the fall and into 2014, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

Apple also announced a big increase in the company’s program to return capital to shareholders — $100 billion in cash by the end of 2015, and plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 15%. Meanwhile, its shares have plummeted approximately 40% from their peak last fall.

This set of mixed messages from Apple raises a number of questions about expected performance in the coming year.

Operations and information management professor Kartik Hosanagar says that Apple’s earnings “were more or less what I’d have expected. Strong sales with clear pressure on margins, lower growth and a strong dividend plan. I think these four — strong sales, slowing growth, lower margins, good dividends — are a blueprint of the future for Apple.”

In terms of sales, he says, “there is no doubt that Apple has a strong brand and that its iPhone and iPad lines will continue to sell well. At the same time, one has to acknowledge that the kind of growth Apple saw for the past decade is really hard to sustain for very long for any company. So, we should expect that growth will slow down unless Apple is able to come up with a completely new product line — which it has done consistently in the past,” but which is harder to do now.

As for margins, “Android smartphones are a genuine threat and will place pressure on Apple’s pricing,” Hosanagar notes. “Further, Apple will have to seek growth by partnering with all the carriers around the world that do not currently support iPhones on their network. Apple cannot expect the carriers to subsidize the phone for consumers as U.S carriers have done for Apple.” In addition, “price sensitivity is higher in these markets. And Samsung and HTC will be major competitors in these new markets. So Apple will face pricing pressure as it seeks to expand. I think lower margins are here to stay.”

According to Hosanagar, the question is, “if growth stalls and margins decrease, how does Apple deliver value to shareholders? That’s where the dividends come in, and I think they are here to stay.”

Overall, Hosanagar contends that Apple “has been getting the wrong kind of attention lately. The company has solid sales and is highly profitable. Wall Street should stop looking for growth and margins of 2010′s Apple in the Apple of 2013. The market has changed, as has the company. Apple is highly profitable, and dividends are a great way to return money to shareholders.”

Hosanagar says he would be “happy to see Apple continuing to innovate and producing good products at lower margins even if that means Apple can now be seen as a mature company. Also, I think Apple is currently underpriced by at least 10%-20% relative to other players in the market. The market has over-reacted to recent news.”

Management professor David Hsu suggests that the Apple news “reflects both successful competitor entry into smartphones and tablets as well as Apple’s own slower pace of innovation. Part of the issue is that consumers have been trained to wait for periodic but somewhat predictable product release times. Most of these have been incremental rather than revolutionary advances in its existing product portfolio. Cook is probably right to delay product introduction in new categories, such as smartwatches and TVs, until they are very good, but the competitive landscape in all of these areas is heating up.”

Cook could possibly consider “more unpredictable product introductions, ideally in categories which reinforce Apple’s strength in its established platform — and which enhance the value of its existing product lines,” he says.

Lawrence Hrebiniak, emeritus professor of management, sounds a slightly more cautionary note. “When a giant shows signs of weakness, there should be concern,” he says. “Consider the facts. The company’s year-over-year quarterly earnings declined, the first time in a decade. Profit margins are down significantly. Stock price has fallen. Customers are buying cheaper iPhones that still do a decent job. Competition is heating up, with companies like Samsung and its Galaxy S4 putting pressure on Apple. Higher dividends and stock buy-backs may calm things a bit, but the fact is that Apple indeed is under competitive pressure.”

The necessary strategic thrust for Apple, he suggests, “centers on one word: innovation. Cook has promised that new and exciting hardware and software are on the near horizon. These innovations had better be. Apple’s edge has always been innovation and revolutionary new ideas and products. Investors and customers still demand and expect this. If Apple regresses to the mean and hints at becoming another ‘okay’ company short on innovation, new ideas, and the resultant profits that have always followed, things will surely get worse for the company.”

Meanwhile, “if other companies like Samsung take on the new innovation mantel,” Hrebiniak adds, “Apple will face a tough uphill battle to regain its prior glory and position as leader of the pack. The problem with being a great company is that management must keep proving it. Hopefully, the proof is in the offing.”

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The Ifs and Buts of Corporate Apologies

A decade after a Knowledge@Wharton article analyzed an outpouring of corporate apologies, the word “sorry” is back in the headlines. Apple’s apology for errors in its maps app sounds truly remorseful, but the company needs to watch out for less forgiving technology users, says Wharton professor of operations and information management Kartik Hosanagar.

“While it is true that consumers are often forgiving of [problems] with technology products because of the usual trial and error issues, this is less so for a product that charges a premium like the iPhone,” Hosanagar notes. “Apple will need to be careful about these kinds of mistakes more so than a typical tech player.”

This isn’t Apple’s first mea culpa over the iPhone. The company was prompted to offer $100 rebates to some consumers after it slashed prices for the first iteration of the iPhone from $599 to $399 just two months after the product launched. Apple was made to apologize again in 2010, when iPhone 4 users complained about poor signals and dropped calls due to a design problem with the device’s antenna.

Apple under Jobs had been seen as generally reluctant to acknowledge errors. But current CEO Tim Cook was more candid in his statement about the maps flap. “We fell short on our commitment,” he said, as he apologized for the company’s decision to remove Google Maps from the list of default apps in the newest version of the iOS operating system and to replace it with an in-house program that has proven to be riddled with errors. Cook even directed customers to maps apps of rivals including Google and MapQuest while Apple fixes its mapping utility.

Comparing Jobs to Cook on apologies may not be entirely fair. “Tim Cook is an unfortunate position in which everything he does will get compared to Steve Jobs,” Hosanagar notes. “These kinds of things happen often and good CEOs often take responsibility for such missteps. That his style is different from that of Jobs will keep getting attention. But analysts must recognize that Cook has his own style.”

Others like ousted Barclay’s Bank CEO Bob Diamond have also not minced words when their firms were caught making an error. In July, he apologized to a British parliamentary panel for “reprehensible behavior” on the part of his bank’s traders indulging in manipulating interbank lending rates. It didn’t help much, though. By then, U.S. and U.K. regulators had already slapped a fine of $453 million on the bank.

On Thursday, appliance maker KitchenAid of St. Joseph, Mich., apologized for “an irresponsible tweet” about President Barack Obama’s late grandmother. “Another company learns the pitfalls of social media,” said a USA Today report on that episode.

Companies must use their apologies carefully, Wharton marketing professor Stephen Hoch cautioned in the 2002 Knowledge@Wharton article referenced earlier. When a company is apologizing for a mistake to a group of people, such as customers, who know about the mistake, then the “right way to do it is to spill your guts, lay the negatives on the table and then try to refute those negatives,” he noted. It’s a kind of “boomerang approach, turning the negative into a positive …” Yet, he advised against firms apologizing to all and sundry, since they tend to deal with heterogeneous sets of customers. “In fact, a massive apology can be risky.”

Even the world of apologies has its heroes, however. James Burke, the former Johnson & Johnson CEO who died last week, will be most remembered for the 1982 Tylenol recall, according to a Knowledge@Wharton Today blog post from last week. Burke ordered a nationwide recall after seven people died in Chicago from taking cyanide-laced Tylenol capsules. In a 2004 Wharton School Publishing Book titled, Lasting Leadership: What You Can Learn from the Top 25 Business People of Our Times, Burke explained that Johnson & Johnson’s celebrated credo that places customers above all had emboldened him: “It gave me the ammunition I needed to persuade shareholders and others to spend the $100 million on the recall.”

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What Guided Google to Frommer’s?

Last week, Google announced plans to buy the Frommer’s line of travel guides from publisher John Wiley & Sons. While many experts agree that the move is a smart one for Google, the deal raises some concerns about antitrust — similar to those that surfaced regarding the search giant’s purchase of restaurant review guide Zagat nearly one year ago.

Last September, Google paid $151 million to acquire Zagat in attempt to offer improved local listings on its search engine — a deal that drew fire from regulators and review services like Yelp, which claimed that Google was giving preference to Zagat information in its searches. The Frommer’s deal — the terms of which were not disclosed — would give Google access to the travel guide publisher’s extensive reviews of hotels, restaurants and sightseeing attractions in more than 4,000 locations around the globe, according to Reuters.

“Clearly, Google is showing interest in content with its acquisition of Zagat and now Frommer’s,” says Wharton operations and information management professor Kartik Hosanagar. “Part of that is due to the opportunity to monetize content and leverage its brand and search dominance [in] the content space. [Also,] Google wants to show local reviews on its various websites [such as Google Maps] and faced some flak for taking content from other sites like Yelp and displaying it…. It responded to that criticism by acquiring Zagat, and now Frommer’s.”

Hosanagar notes, however, that the deal is likely to face scrutiny because — just as with Zagat — Google will have the ability “to give preference to results from Frommer’s over TripAdvisor and other [travel] sites.”

According to Anindya Ghose, a professor of information, operations and management sciences at New York University’s Stern School of Business, the move “would make Google a huge player in the online travel business, primarily because of the trustworthy reviews from Frommer’s.” However, like Hosanagar, he predicts that regulators will pay careful attention. “Google is now both a search and content provider, and there is an uneasy duality — some may even call it a fundamental conflict — between the two goals. Recently, The Fairsearch.org group, which includes TripAdvisor, Expedia and Kayak among its members, asked government officials to look closely at Google’s ability to use its dominance in search and search advertising to steer users away from competitors.” Ghose adds that last year, Yelp complained before a Senate judiciary committee that Google has abused its dominance in search, and earlier this year, the CEO of price-comparison site Nextag called for more transparency in Google’s search ranking process.

Such issues aside, Google’s latest effort to amass new content could be a boon to consumers looking for concise travel information. “It would make consumers’ lives a lot easier when it comes to local and travel planning,” Ghose says. “It [would enable them] to get personalized answers to their questions from an authoritative source. The future of online search is increasingly going to be about getting personalized answers and getting them quickly, on the fly. When one is traveling and they want to find a good restaurant nearby, they want an authoritative source to provide a descriptive paragraph that tells them in a personalized manner where to go. They don’t want to be scrolling down a list of multiple choices and doing the hard work of figuring out the ideal venue themselves, especially given the abundance of information on the web. The future of travel, restaurant and local search is going to more and more on mobile devices.”

What does that mean for the old-fashioned, printed travel guide? Will the format die out? The search company has not said what it will do with Frommer’s printed editions, but Stephen J. Kobrin, publisher and executive director of Wharton Digital Press, says that he “cannot imagine that Google is interested in Frommer’s print business. Given the ubiquity of smartphones and tablet devices, electronic travel guides make more sense than print. It is easier to customize for a given trip and easier to carry with you when you are out and about. Do you really want to lug the entire guide for Italy if you are only going to Tuscany?”

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As Mayer Brings the Pizzazz, Yahoo Waits for the Magic

Yahoo’s hiring of Marissa Mayer — a high-profile executive and innovator ensnared from rival Google — as its new CEO has all the trappings of a coup. But Wharton experts say Mayer will have to move quickly to win the search engine new users and advertisers, and to jump-start product innovation.

“Will Mayer be the one to finally work some magic at Yahoo and restore its glamour in the industry?” asks Wharton management professor Lawrence Hrebiniak, adding that he his happy with the choice. “She brings experience with, and knowledge of, consumer websites gained at Google, a good place to work and learn.”

Mayer’s last post in her 13-year Google career was vice president of the search giant’s local, maps and location services, overseeing product management, engineering, design and strategy. Yahoo credits Mayer — who made Glamour magazine’s 2009 list of “Women of the Year” — with heading up some of Google’s most successful innovations and launching more than a hundred features and products, including Gmail, Google News, and the “look and feel” of the Google experience.

“Marissa Mayer is a great win for Yahoo,” says Wharton operations and information management professor Kartik Hosanagar. “She’s from a relevant domain and is a star exec. She will provide good, positive PR and will help in recruiting some good folks back to Yahoo.”

Prior to Mayer’s hiring, Hosanagar told Knowledge@Wharton Today that Yahoo needed a leader with an “entrepreneurial spark” as CEO. “Marissa is close, but not quite that,” he says now. “She joined Google very early … but she’s been at Google too long and it’s not clear to me she’s the person who comes up with new product ideas and gets them done. I’d have preferred someone who has started and grown a company. Even Jack Ma [founder of Chinese business-to-business trading platform Alibaba.com] would have been a great choice. That said, I think Marissa is overall not a bad choice.”

Mayer will have to hit the ground running at Yahoo, which has struggled to maintain stable leadership at the top and seen a steady decline in revenue over the past few years. “Her focus will be on Yahoo’s core advertising business,” says Hrebiniak. Adds Hosanagar: “The one thing Marissa needs to do is to focus on developing a new winning product at Yahoo instead of financial reengineering, restructuring the organization and the like. Some of the latter is needed, but what will get Yahoo out of this mess will be a new product, much like [the introduction of the] iPod for Apple. Given her background, I think her focus will indeed be on products.”

Hrebiniak suggests that the work done by Mayer’s predecessor, interim CEO Ross Levinsohn, including settling disputes with Google and Alibaba, will allow her to focus on the advertising business.

Closing the Revolving Door?

But Mayer could face other distractions, as well as formidable hurdles to overcome, Hrebiniak points out. “Levinsohn’s being passed over may generate resentment among key managers and employees, which could [lead to] defections and other problems,” he says. “Google and Facebook, which have steadily been stealing Yahoo’s users and advertising revenues, aren’t going away. A frontal attack by Mayer is certainly anticipated and the two formidable foes will assuredly be prepared for Yahoo’s new assaults.”

Mayer is Yahoo’s fifth CEO in as many years, and “a revolving door itself creates uncertainty and possible confusion,” Hrebiniak notes. “Levinsohn, for example, was reportedly in the process of formulating and executing his version of a new strategy. Mayer may upset the apple cart with something new and different, creating confusion and a feeling of ‘here we go again.’”

Wall Street seemed to cheer the choice of Mayer, notes Hrebiniak, but adds that “only time will tell if the trust in her capabilities in a competitive marketplace is warranted.” Mayer has a lot going for her — including a baby boy due Oct. 7 — and has been named in four consecutive years starting in 2008 to Fortune‘s list of the “50 Most Powerful Women in Business.” As one of only 20 female CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, and Google’s 20th-ever employee, “maybe 20 is the magic number,” for Yahoo, says Hrebiniak.

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How Yahoo Can Search for its Growth Engine

Yahoo’s board is on borrowed time to fix its woes — a situation that was no doubt aggravated by the board’s decision not to name a new CEO at its annual meeting on Thursday. Wharton professors Kartik Hosanagar, Eric T. Bradlow and Waheed Hussain have advice for the board on how to ensure stable leadership and reposition the struggling company for growth.

Hosanagar, Wharton professor of operations and information management, states that time is running out for the company’s board. “They need to elect someone … who can bring back some of the entrepreneurial spark in Yahoo,” he says. “Traditional, seasoned management veterans are not the right candidates for Yahoo given all that it’s going through.”

Many expected Yahoo’s board to name interim CEO Ross Levinsohn to the top job, but now speculation is growing that the board is considering other candidates, too. Levinsohn, 48, took over as interim CEO in May from Scott Thompson, who quit after being accused of making false claims on his CV. Since then, Levinsohn has scored several victories, including making peace with Facebook last week by settling patent disputes. Also, Yahoo and Facebook agreed to form advertising and content-sharing partnerships. Finally, Levinsohn in May guided Yahoo’s decision to sell half its 40% stake in Chinese e-commerce firm Alibaba for $7.1 billion, ending tensions over how much value Yahoo can extract from that investment.

What should guide the Yahoo board as it picks the firm’s next CEO? “The last two Yahoo CEOs were outsiders, and it seems that Levinsohn is also essentially an outsider, having been at Yahoo for only two years,” says Hussain, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, whose research areas include corporate governance issues. “You never know an outsider the way that you know one of your own executives, and you naturally have to take much more on trust.”

Hussain’s advice for corporate boards in general, including Yahoo, is to build better structures and processes for grooming leaders from within the corporation. “There is no hard and fast law that says internal leaders have less viable and transformational ideas than outsiders,” he says. “And in general, the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know.”

Wharton marketing professor Bradlow says the new CEO must develop “a core niche strategy” to restore Yahoo’s fortunes. “[That person] should rebuild from the ground up by owning a segment of customers and branching [out] big from there.”

Bradlow has a specific to-do list: “Be willing to experiment,” he says, such as offering value-added services like web page layouts. His other suggestions: “Track much more than visits/sales to understand performance. Make sure you understand repeat visitation behavior, page depth and [other] things at the individual customer level.” Any company, including Yahoo, that tracks only aggregate behavior will miss out on important diagnostics showing whether a strategy is or is not working, he adds.

Hussain cautions against placing too much emphasis on just the CEO’s actions. “In the long run, the choice of a CEO is only one moderate factor among many that figure into making a company successful,” he says. “These decisions get an enormous amount of attention in the media, so boards tend to feel enormous pressure to do something dramatic. But it’s important to be realistic. You can only do so much to move an ocean liner in a short amount of time. Where it ends up depends a great deal on the seas and the winds.”

Shaky at the Top

Yahoo has had more than its share of instability at the top. Thompson, who quit after less than six months as CEO, had replaced Tim Morse, who had been at the helm for four months. Morse was named interim CEO last September after Yahoo’s chairman fired then-CEO Carol Bartz for what was widely seen as a failure in her efforts to boost the company’s fortunes.

Bartz, who had been CEO since 2009, had a little more than a year left on her contract when she was fired. Bartz had replaced Yahoo’s co-founder Jerry Yang, who had taken on the CEO role in July 2007. Yang had replaced then-CEO Terry Semel, a six-year veteran at the company, amid worries that Yahoo’s ad revenues were shrinking as business opportunities on the Internet were expanding.

Concerns over revenues persist to this day. Yahoo’s revenue has fallen steadily from $6.46 billion in 2009 to about $5 billion by 2011, although net income has grown in that period from about $600 million to a little more than $1 billion. “The major issue is that [its] growth is lagging the industry, especially [that of] Google, Facebook, etc.,” Hosanagar had noted in a Knowledge@Wharton Today report after Bartz’s exit.

Meanwhile, Yahoo’s shareholders seem to be losing patience. “You are behind the ball and you have been behind the ball, regardless of which CEO has shown up,” a shareholder told Levinsohn and other Yahoo executives at a Q&A session on Thursday, according to The Associated Press. “You don’t execute…. As a consumer, I have given up on this company.” Many still rue Yahoo’s decision not to sell itself to Microsoft four years ago for $47.5 billion. Back then, Yahoo’s share price was $33; On Thursday, it closed at $15.69.

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Mobile Penetration Surges — Now, Where Are the Ads?

The rapid growth in mobile phone use worldwide is good news for marketers and service providers, but challenges persist in monetizing that penetration.

Despite the fact that mobile users now make up 10% of all online traffic, ad spend in the U.S. on mobile was only 1% of the total, compared with 22% on the Internet, according to a report released last month by Silicon Valley venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB). Desktop Internet access scored over mobile phones in terms of average revenue per user (ARPU), the report noted: Last year, the ARPU from desktop Internet users was an estimated $49, while it ranged from below $4 to about $18 for mobile advertising at companies like Pandora, Zynga and others.

But advertisers have found desktop Internet advertising more expensive than mobile. The effective cost per thousand views in traditional online advertising is $3.50, compared with 75 cents on mobile devices, according to the report.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of information and operations management, says it makes sense that the ARPU is lower in mobile than on the traditional web. Mobile devices have limited screen space, and that makes it difficult to implement advertising efficiently, he points out. The nature of mobile usage presents another obstacle. “Most people access [data] on-the-go and are looking to pull information,” he says of mobile users. “Therefore, they are unlikely to linger around to consume other information/content that is pushed to them.”

However, Hosanagar finds significant untapped potential for other forms of monetization in the mobile space. “A key difference is that while most content on the web is offered for free, paid content and apps are very much thriving on the mobile side.” The monetization model on mobile will be based less on advertising and more on paid content than the traditional Internet, he says.

The KPCB report also noted that the global Internet user population (including both desktop and mobile access) grew 8% in 2011 to 2.3 billion, led by China (513 million users) and followed by the U.S. (245 million users). A Cisco report, also released in May, put the number of Internet connections worldwide at 10.3 billion at the end of 2011, and projected that the number will grow to 18.9 billion by 2016. Driving that trend will be smartphones, tablets and other handheld devices. India will see Internet traffic grow the fastest, followed by Brazil and South Africa, according to a Bloomberg report.

As all that growth plays out, Hosanagar sees “a big opportunity” ahead for Internet service providers, but he notes that there are obstacles. “Their worry, of course, is that they might end up as dumb pipes carrying bits. If so, their services will become commoditized and have lower margins.” However, he doesn’t see service providers facing difficulties in monetizing their investments in infrastructure with continued traffic growth in the medium term, especially with the increasing popularity of online video.

And while there has been tremendous progress in network speeds in recent years, the world has only harnessed a fraction of the Internet’s potential so far. “We are still having the same conversation we had 15 years ago, before the broadband revolution,” Kevin Werbach, a Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, said in a recent Knowledge@Wharton article. His comments came after a conference on broadband trends in April at Wharton’s San Francisco campus, organized by the school’s Mack Center on Technological Innovation and the Palo Alto-based Institute for the Future.

“We’re clearly at a fork in the road, but it’s not really clear yet what the branches are,” Werbach said about the evolution of Internet technology. “The most interesting questions are usually the hardest ones to answer.”

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Netflix’s Next Episode: Winning Back What It Lost

Streaming media and DVD rental provider Netflix is facing renewed scrutiny over its business model after announcing poor first-quarter results on Monday. The Los Gatos, Calif.-based company reported a $4.6 million loss in the quarter ending March 31, compared with a profit of $60.2 million in the year-earlier quarter. Its revenues, meanwhile, grew 21% from $718.6 million to $869.8 million. Following the news, the firm’s stock has fallen more than 19% (as of this morning).

Clearly, Netflix has yet to recover from its recent 60% price increase and failed attempt last September to spin off its DVD delivery business. The company’s U.S. customer base has eroded from 24.6 million last June to 23.4 million currently. (It also operates in Canada.)

Netflix’s problem is threefold: content partners, competitors and customers, according to Wharton operations and information management professor Kartik Hosanagar. “First, it was obvious that Netflix’s original margins were not sustainable in the long run,” he says. “Netflix secured some of its early [content] licenses at very low costs, and it was clear that the content owners would seek more the next time around.” That explains why the company’s costs have gone up over the last year — and the situation is unlikely to get better, he adds.

Increased competition is Netflix’s second hurdle, says Hosanagar. He points to the likes of Hulu and Amazon and also to streaming services being introduced by cable-TV firms like Comcast. “This competition will only get worse in the next 12 to 24 months.”

Customer loyalty represents Netflix’s third problem, he notes. “Customers used to be Netflix’s biggest strength.” But the past year “hasn’t been great for Netflix” because of several missteps — the most important of which were the debacle with pricing and the spinoff plans, he adds.

Netflix’s solutions lie in continuing to grow its customer base and “up-selling existing customers” — or launching higher-value offerings — to address the partner and competitor issues, Hosanagar says. “Going forward, the key to Netflix’s success will be to win back customer confidence. Investor confidence and Wall Street will follow.”

Filmmaker James Kerwin took a dour view of the business model behind Netflix’s streaming business in an interview with Knowledge@Wharton in January 2011, soon after Netflix announced its offering of streaming movies and videos. The company’s model is not economically sustainable, he noted, because studios will find that streaming rights cannibalize their DVD sales. He also warned that fee increases were inevitable: “Netflix is going to have to jack up the rates that their customers pay and/or they are going to have to limit the number of videos that a customer can stream per month — because the studios are going to start demanding higher rates. Otherwise, this is just going to implode.”

According to Wharton legal studies and business ethics professor Kevin Werbach, much of the criticism of Netflix “is overblown, just as the company was over-hyped earlier.” Netflix is still fundamentally well-positioned to exploit the ongoing transformation of video, he says. “Ultimately, Netflix will have to provide value-add, whether in its recommendations, knowledge of its users or ability to function as an independent ‘honest broker’ unaffiliated with all the other industry segments involved,” he notes. “The basic function of getting any content users want to any platform, whenever users want it, will become the table stakes.”

Technology companies, including Netflix, are increasingly adopting the concept of customer lifetime value (CLV), Wharton marketing professor Peter Fader noted in a recent Knowledge@Wharton article. CLV is a marketing formula based on the idea that firms should spend money up front, and sacrifice initial profits, to gain customers whose loyalty and increased business will reap rewards over the long term. According to Fader, following a CLV model can keep companies from panicking when making big strategic decisions. An example he offers is Netflix’s move to raise subscription prices as its business focus shifted from offering DVDs by mail to the streaming model. In Fader’s view, Netflix was smart in the way it split its business and pricing, but not so in the way it announced those changes.

Still, for Netflix, such “screw-ups are a blip,” he said. “Dropped subscriptions are likely to be picked up again because Netflix really doesn’t have a comparable competitor.”

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