Focus On: Marshall L. Fisher

Estee Lauder’s New Skin Care Brand in China: The Potential for High-risk, High-reward

Can Estee Lauder Companies make “Osiao” a household word in China’s luxury skin care market?

The New York-based manufacturer of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products is banking that Chinese women will buy a new high-end brand tailored specifically for them, designed to promote what Estee Lauder’s scientists say Asian women want most in a skin care product — “natural radiance.”  

Already known for such brands as Bobbi Brown, Clinique, MAC, Origins and La Mer, among others, Estee Lauder’s decision to launch a whole new brand — rather than simply a new product — suggests the company is confident that an initiative begun more than five years ago will expand Estee Lauder’s footprint not just in China, but throughout Asia. The Osiao product line is expected to sell for between US$45 and US$190.

The venture is not without risk. Osiao — which is being introduced this month in only two department stores in Hong Kong and on some Cathay Pacific Airways Hong Kong flights – already faces competition from other Asian skin care products. In addition, its success depends to some extent on continuing strength in the high-end luxury market, despite weakening in the Chinese economy overall. And some observers question whether a hybrid product like Osiao will appeal to Chinese women. According to a New York Times article, Osiao will use English labels but its formulas will contain such ingredients as ginseng, Asiatic pennywort and ganoderma.

Wharton faculty familiar with the Chinese market are generally optimistic about Estee Lauder’s venture, while also noting the challenges that any new brand faces. “As part of the Estee Lauder family, Osiao can and should leverage the high brand equity of Estee Lauder in the Chinese market, at least in the initial stage,” says marketing professor Qiaowei Shen. “Brand name is still a very important element when Chinese consumers are choosing their skincare products.” While it probably won’t be hard “to convince some consumers to try the new brand, the difficult part [will be] to convert them to loyal customers. The true quality of the product is ultimately the key.”

The concept of using Chinese herbs as ingredients in skincare products is not new, Shen adds. “A brand that claims to specifically cater to Chinese or Asian skin types does not necessarily win market share. Many brands originating from Korea and Japan, which are designed for Asian skin by nature, already have products with ginseng or other Chinese plants as ingredients. How is Osiao different from these?”

The market “is there [and] the brand will enjoy a glow from the [reputation] of the parent company,” says Shen. “But in the end, whether consumers are going to repeat their purchase and spread positive word of mouth depends on whether the product quality lives up to their expectations.”

A More Sophisticated Market

Estee Lauder, founded in 1946, is experiencing strong growth in China. The company reported a rise in fiscal fourth quarter earnings of 25% and a 9.2% increase in revenue, to $2.25 billion. According to an article in The New York Times, fiscal 2012 is the first year that sales in the Asia Pacific region exceeded $2 billion. The company sells its products in more than 150 countries and territories mainly through limited distribution in, for example, high-end department stores and perfumeries, and specialized retail stores. China, with sales of $500 million, is its third largest market, behind the U.S. and Japan.

Wharton marketing professor Barbara Kahn gives Estee Lauder high marks for “understanding how important skin care is to the Chinese consumer. One of the key differences between China – and Asia, in general — and the U.S. is the importance of skin care products. If you look at a typical drugstore, even a Sephora in Asia versus one in the U.S., you will see a larger percentage of the store devoted to [those items].” Kahn also points out that Chinese consumers think of the skin care process “as a multi-step regime, and they take it very seriously. They are generally more sophisticated in this category than the typical American consumer.” Given the importance of the skin care category “and the amount of money consumers are willing to spend, this strategy of developing a new local brand makes a lot of sense.”

Estee Lauder’s initiative is “brilliant [as well as] risky,” according to Wharton marketing professor David Reibstein. In China, he says, a number of trends come into play: “A strong desire to be beautiful, with a heavy concern about skin care; a desire to be on the leading edge of fashion and skin care [as shown by] designer clothes, shoes and cosmetics all coming from other parts of the world; and a desire for, and intrigue with, foreign brands [as shown by] the popularity of some of the most visible fashion brands.”

The fact that Estee Lauder understands “the Chinese market, the skin care needs of the market, premium positioning and branding, and how to gain distribution” suggests the new brand will be a “winner,” Reibstein adds. The risk for Estee Lauder is that “it’s a crowded market…. The big question is whether there is room for both La Mer [another premier skin product from Estee Lauder] and Osiao.”

Wharton operations and information professor Marshall Fisher – who was in China recently teaching a global supply chain management course — breaks the scenario into two questions: Will a high-priced product sell in China, and how much should the company adapt the product to Chinese tastes?

The answer to the first question “is clearly ‘yes,’ if you look at the number of successful luxury brands that have entered the country,” Fisher says. “The reason is that even though average disposable income in China is below [that in] the West, it is such a big country that the top of the income pyramid is huge. This has made China a prime target for luxury brands.”

Products entering China have adapted to varying degrees, Fisher adds. “Nike changed little, but KFC changed almost everything; their comment was, ‘All we brought from the U.S. was the picture of the Colonel.’ Both have been highly successful in China. Evidently, people who buy Nike buy it in part because it is a Western brand, and adapting it too much would destroy that value. I would guess that Estee Lauder is more like Nike than KFC.” 

At a dinner on the last day of their course, Fisher discussed this second question with the head of Starbucks in China. The Starbucks executive noted how the company eventually “tweaked Starbucks’ menu and flavors enough to make them appealing to Chinese consumers,” says Fisher. “His remark was that they finally figured out that consumers in China who buy Starbucks are looking for a Western experience, but one that is tuned to their taste buds.”

Competition from Other Brands

Fisher’s co-instructor in the global course was Edwin Keh, CEO of the Hong Kong Research Institute for Apparel and Textiles. He recalls a presentation at Wharton earlier this year in which he learned two things: First, that “Chinese consumers like lightly scented products and think a lot of Western products are too strong and overpowering. And second, that the Asian market sells [more] skin protection, skin tone lightening and moisturizers than the West, probably because the Chinese market is dominated by urban professionals who work in crowded and polluted environments.” Also, he noted, “light skin tone is considered a sign of beauty.”

Osiao “looks to be a very exclusive high-end niche brand” being launched at a top Hong Kong department store that is equivalent to Saks or Neiman Marcus in the U.S., Keh says. “The line can command a higher price point and probably will have fairly small volumes for the immediate future. This may be a good way to test the market and tweak the product.” But Keh, like others, points to the “significant brand competition from Japanese and Korean beauty brands, [which] align very well with the Chinese consumer and have near-market advantages.”

Beauty products and next-to-skin apparel “are tough to sell and expensive to market, especially in China,” Keh adds. “So a new brand will be high risk, high return. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.”

Although some observers express concern that Osiao could cannibalize Estee Lauder’s other brands in China, Shen does not see this as likely. “Given its pricing and positioning, it is targeting a different consumer segment from the average consumers of Estee Lauder and Clinique,” its two best-known brands in China. Instead, “the introduction of Osiao seems to explore the market opportunity with the ever-growing wealthy class in China. There is a segment of affluent Chinese consumers who are willing to spend a lot on skincare products. The economic downturn of China has little impact on the behavior of this segment.” Keh concurs: “The timing of the release could have been better, given the recent doom and gloom, but the rich Chinese consumer is still spending and there are still lots of rich Chinese. So I don’t see [the current economy] as an issue.”

Wharton marketing professor John Zhang describes why he thinks Osiao represents “a very far-sighted strategy. Up to this point, Chinese consumers worship anything Western, especially in cosmetics. However, at some point in the future, Chinese customers will become more rational, they will want to go back to their roots, they will value their own heritage and they will want the things that are good specifically for them. When that day comes, pure Western brands will lose their luster,” but Osiao may not.

Building a new brand from scratch is clearly expensive, he adds. “For that reason, starting in Hong Kong is a good way to test the water. In addition, it is also a good way to establish the high-end positioning. I believe that the success of the brand will depend on two things. First, there has to be solid science behind the new formulation. Without it, the brand will not succeed in China for long, and ginseng alone will not carry the brand for sure. Second, good marketing must balance modernity, tradition and science, especially in cosmetics.”

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As Internet Sales Grow, Retailers Go Omni-Channel

As e-commerce grows, traditional retailers are facing increasing pressure to adopt marketing plans that integrate the bricks-and-mortar and online shopping experiences. Using this approach, companies are designing physical stores, online websites and mobile applications that complement each other, and trying to give the shopper reasons to interact with the retailer on all channels.

According to third quarter sales figures released last week by the U.S. Commerce Department, retail e-commerce sales grew an estimated 1.9% to $48.2 billion between the second and third quarters of this year. E-commerce accounted for 4.6% of all retail sales in the third quarter, up from 4.4% at this time last year.

To compete with the steady advance of online retailers, traditional firms must adopt an “omni-channel” approach that leverages the Internet, mobile phones, television and catalogs along with physical stores, says Wharton marketing professor Barbara E. Kahn. “Consumers will decide which channel to use as a function of which is more convenient to them at the time,” she notes. Marshall Fisher, a Wharton professor of operations and information management, agrees. “Multi-channel [marketing] is the hot topic for physical store retailers these days,” he says. “Many worry that their stores will become showrooms for Amazon.”

In one recent example of an attempt to integrate the virtual and in-person shopping experience, Toys“R”Us last week announced expanded mobile offerings timed to the  holiday shopping season. Customers who download the retailer’s mobile app will be able to look up their children’s wish lists via smartphone and access a mobile version of the “gift finder”  suggestion feature on the chain’s website. Toys”R”Us has also worked with partners to develop apps that allow customers to search the inventory of their local store for a specific product and even pay for it via smartphone. Retailers including Best Buy and Staples are working with “one stop” e-retailers like Amazon to get their products on multiple screens, according to CoStar Group, a real estate information services firm.

Kahn suggests that retailers could also use less display space within their bricks-and-mortar locations. The extra square-footage could then be dedicated to developing “stores within stores,” that sell products that complement the retailer’s existing merchandise.

But Wharton professor emeritus of real estate Peter Linneman says the real losers in the growth of e-commerce are catalogs. “Stores have long served the return and-test-drive role for catalogs, as they do now for Internet sales,” he points out. Internet retailers have inherent limitations — shoppers can’t try on or try out most products the way they can at a physical store. Linneman describes Internet retailing as the latest of an ever-changing set of retail concepts. “A study of retail history is the study of constant change and innovation, with today’s winner being tomorrow’s loser,” he says.

For more on this topic, check out this Knowledge@Wharton story from earlier this year: More Than Virtual: Marketing the Total Brand ‘Experience’

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Why ‘Friday’ Just Won’t Go Away

It seems like everyone is laughing at Rebecca Black. But her universally mocked viral music video has become a business success story — and that’s no joke.

The 13-year-old has garnered millions of YouTube hits, thousands of  iTunes downloads and become a constant Twitter trending topic thanks to “Friday,” a song almost universally considered to be pretty awful. Her single even hit number 72 on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart, sandwiched between the kids from Glee and country star Kenny Chesney.

What makes this song so bad it’s good? Is it the prodigious use of AutoTune? Or Black’s intense lyrical debate about whether to sit in the front or back seat of her friend’s car? What about the equally confounding video — why is she waiting for the school bus if her friends are giving her a ride?

“Friday” has all the classic attributes of an “earworm” — also known as a song that gets stuck in your head, according to James Kellaris, a marketing professor at the University of Cincinnati who studies the influence of music on consumers. The lyrics are relatively simple, there’s a lot of repetition and “some odd incongruities, features that violate listeners’ expectations.

“There is also something social going on here that has relatively little to do with the music itself,” Kellaris continues. “When a crowd of onlookers stops to watch something, others will stop to see what is going on. If the crowd increases, it exudes sort of a gravitational pull. This seems to be happening on YouTube, with millions of viewers checking out what all the fuss is about.”

Even if that attention is focused on how bad the song is, the broad level of public awareness is what’s really important here. Recent research co-authored by Wharton marketing professor Jonah Berger found that negative publicity can actually make a positive impact on sales by giving previously unknown products a share of the spotlight. In investigating how book sales were affected by poor reviews, Berger and his co-authors discovered that, as time passes, customers “may not remember that something is negative. You may read a negative review today, and then a couple of weeks go by, and you might remember that you heard something about the book, but not remember exactly what you heard.” In those cases, the poor review becomes “free advertising,” boosting awareness with few repercussions.

So far, the “Friday” video has more than 42 million views on YouTube. About 63,000 listeners took advantage of the site’s “like button” to give it the digital thumbs-up. But a comparatively whopping 543,461 clicked the “dislike” button.

An erroneous Internet report sparked rumors that Black was making hundreds of thousands of dollars from YouTube views and sales of her song. She’s not doing quite that well — Billboard’s Glenn Peoples did the math and estimates that she’s making closer to $25,000 per week from track sales. But that’s not bad for a single most people claim (at least publicly) to hate. (Black told Jay Leno that she’s donating the proceeds from the music video to earthquake/tsunami relief efforts in Japan and to her school.)

“Consumers may purchase ['Friday'] precisely because the song is bad,” says Wharton marketing professor Deborah Small.  ”A bad performance can be funny, and people experience schadenfreude, or pleasure from the pain … of others. This particular video … appeals to teenagers, who can relate to the characters in the video.”

They can also relate to Black. “Although [teens] may aspire to be rock stars, they can envision themselves at [Black's] level of stardom,” Small notes. “This is similar to the [reasons for] the success of much of reality TV.”

It remains to be seen if Black capitalizes on her 15 minutes of fame to become the next Justin Bieber — or if she’s destined to languish in one-hit wonder territory. But she might take note of a cautionary tale from a recent Knowledge@Wharton story about the rise and fall of fads, which warns of the challenges in keeping consumer eyes from wandering. Hot streaks, according to Wharton operations and information management professor Marshall Fisher, “are like an airplane. If it stops operating at a certain speed, it falls like a stone.”

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