Category: Managing Technology

Predicting — and Monetizing — the Lifespan of a Tweet

031313-social-mediaThe frenetic pace of Twitter means that updates are often here now and then gone in seconds. Users of the micro-blogging site are rarely interested in content tweeted by followers for more than a few hours — or even a few minutes.

One way to extend the lifespan of a tweet is through retweets — essentially, by other people deciding to pass on the message or link. Wharton marketing professor Eric Bradlow, along with co-authors Tauhid Zaman from MIT and Emily Fox from the University of Washington, have come up with a model for predicting how many times an individual tweet will be shared within minutes of its initial posting.

When it comes to sharing content on Twitter, they note in a paper titled, “A Bayesian Approach for Predicting the Popularity of Tweets,” the pattern of retweets that occurs in the short-term is a pretty good indicator of how the message will perform overall. “The probability that a person retweets is positively related to the number of people that they follow,” Bradlow adds. It also depends on the degree of separation a person has from the user who made the initial posting, meaning a person is much more likely to have his or her content shared by an immediate follower than by followers of followers — or followers of followers of followers and so on down the line.

The researchers developed the model, dubbed Twouija in homage to the Ouija board game, with the idea that “understanding retweet behavior could lead to a better understanding of how broader ideas spread in Twitter and in other social networks…. Understanding this type of information spreading would potentially allow one to predict which trends, memes or ideas will become popular, how popular they will become and how quickly they will become popular.”

They compiled a set of 52 different tweets and then used Twitter’s search application programming interface (API) to find the retweets for each one. The data show that the lifetime of a single tweet is fleeting: Updates collected had between 21 and 1,260 retweets; the time when the last share of a particular message occurred ranged from a few hours to a few days. It took between four minutes to three hours for an update to reach 50% of its total retweet count — and most reached this median in less than one hour. For businesses that use or hope to use the site for marketing products or services, the findings “suggest that there can be short-term impact,” Bradlow says. “But to move the needle significantly, there will need to be multiple tweets and then each of them would have to spread virally.”

According to the researchers, the model has several different potential uses. “Because tweets are typically only actively retweeted for a few hours, the early predictions our model provides are key to detecting a popular tweet before it receives a large amount of retweets,” they write. “Also the similarity of the manner by which people spread content in social networks suggests our model’s early predictions could create a whole new source of impressions for online advertising on dynamic social network content with a finite ‘lifetime.’”

Twitter “is predictable,” Bradlow adds. “So if one wants to think about retweets as opportunities for ad exposures, then just like one pays for exposures on television, one can determine how much to pay for root tweets.”

He says that since the model predicts the interval of retweets, it can easily accommodate the addition of other variables, such as the time of day a tweet was posted or the number of followers a user (or that user’s friends) have. “Our model does well in prediction, but adding these other variables would add to the casual story,” Bradlow notes.

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What’s Next in Tech

imagesKnowledge@Wharton spent two days at TechCrunch Disrupt NY 2013, rubbing elbows with the who’s who of technology, venture capital and entrepreneurship, plus dozens of start-ups aspiring to be the next big thing. From VC, media and music to digital payments and advertising, the conference offered content and key speakers that appealed to almost every sector of entrepreneurship.

Here is a look at key themes that emerged:

Digital payments remain a hot topic as the average consumer has five different credit cards in his or her wallet, according to Hill Ferguson, vice president of global product at PayPal. With consumers looking for more convenient ways to pay merchants, companies such as Square, Stripe and Braintree have made progress toward eventually eliminating transaction costs, noted Fred Wilson, managing partner of Union Square Ventures. Stripe co-founder John Collison predicted that “swiping cards and entering your card number will go away.” Recently developed alternative forms of payment, such as Bitcoin, may change the landscape in the long term, but there is still much to be ironed out before it goes mainstream, experts said.

Multi-screen technology took center stage in a panel incorporating leadership from Google, Facebook and Twitter — all of whom agreed that brands need improved analytics for digital advertising beyond just clicks. Consumers are interacting with real-time marketing, evidenced by the 50% of Super Bowl commercials in 2013 displaying Twitter hashtags. In the retail space, consumers will continue to be multi-screen, accessing the web in multiple places, and developers will build mobile apps that are seamless across those screens, said eBay CEO John Donahoe.

With Google’s recently launched “enhanced campaigns,” of which 1.5 million are up and running, Neal Mohan — the company’s vice president of display advertising — emphasized that “multi-platform will be a first-class citizen in all of our products” as users are not operating with only one device. “If you are building for mobile, you are building for today. To build for the future, you have to build for a 24/7 multi-screen world.”

Venture capitalists from Sequoia Capital, Box Group, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and Angel List debated the shrinking VC industry, noting that entrepreneurs have choice when it comes to the various ways to raise money — including crowdfunding, which one investor suggested could be most helpful for lifestyle businesses.

On a different note, Aaref Hilaly, partner at Sequoia Capital, noted that “the big problem is that 12% of [computer science] grads are women, and it should be 50%. That gap represents a huge loss of talent in the technology industry.”

On the topic of scaling entrepreneurship, Bloomberg’s Norm Pearlstine interviewed Donahoe, who attributed much of eBay’s success over the past three to five years to giving its entrepreneurs the opportunity, culture and autonomy to innovate at scale. (Fifteen founders of companies acquired by eBay are currently in executive roles at the company.)  Not all founders want to see their vision executed by a big company, but “the vision of most start-ups is to be successful and grow big and have big impact. You cannot succeed without continuous innovation,” Donahoe stated.

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Sony Faces a Fork in the Road

Sony-logoConsumers know Sony by the Walkman and the PlayStation, movies like Spider-Man and musical offerings ranging from Bruce Springsteen to Prince Royce. But the firm’s electronics business has actually been losing money, and while the music and movie divisions remain profitable, Sony makes most of its money through writing insurance policies. Wall Street critics are pushing for the Tokyo-based company to shed its electronics division, or spin off its movie and music properties.

Sony earlier in May announced a return to profit after five years. In its latest year ending March 2013, the firm made profits of $458 million on revenues of $72 billion, reversing the previous year’s loss of $457 million on revenues of $69 billion. But most of those gains came from asset sales, including the Sony headquarters building on Madison Avenue in Manhattan. Sony’s financial services subsidiary — which is mostly focused on writing auto, medical and life insurance policies in Japan and operating a boutique bank — contributed 63% of its operating income ($1.5 billion out of $2.4 billion) in the last year.

Different Strokes

The most compelling criticism in recent days has come from investor Daniel Loeb, who heads the hedge fund Third Point, and Jefferies, an investment banking firm. Loeb earlier this month sent Sony CEO Kazuo Hirai a plan to spin off the company’s music and movie business and use the proceeds to strengthen its electronics division. Hirai has said he will consider that plan, but made no commitments. Meanwhile, Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal wrote in a report this week that Sony should sell its electronics business, describing the division as the firm’s Achilles’ heel and noting that “it is worth zero.”

“[Sony without electronics] makes total sense to me,” says Wharton marketing professor Peter Fader. “Lots of companies are getting out of the core businesses that made them famous. It’s a natural progression for any company.”

According to Fader, Sony has overstayed its welcome in the electronics sector, rapidly losing ground to competitors like Samsung and LG. “What makes it shocking is the fact they were always so arrogant about their products,” he notes. “It’s a shame that they kept thinking, ‘We’re Sony; if we put it out there, it has got to be good.’” On the contrary, Fader adds that over time, the firm has become “an average, commoditized player” in electronics, producing “fine products but nothing spectacular.” Sony should have “learned its lessons a long time ago,” Fader says.

Losing Out to Rivals

Observers have criticized Sony for being too slow at decision-making and developing new products, and also noted that the company’s gadgets aren’t as user-friendly as those of its rivals, and often come with voluminous and difficult-to-decipher user manuals.

But Sony continues to have a strong brand identity that could be transferred to other products, Fader says. He points to IBM, which successfully exited the computer business and transitioned into a focus on consulting. “It is easier for Sony to go through that kind of transformation” than it was for IBM, he notes. “If nothing else, [the name] IBM stands for International Business Machines. They got out of business machines, but the brand still stands. Sony doesn’t stand for anything, and so it should easily be able to move on.”

But visualizing a different Sony is disorienting for Wharton operations and information management professor Eric Clemons. Clemons, who is visiting the firm’s home city of Tokyo notes that “somehow, here, the idea of Sony exiting electronics seems quite absurd. That’s like suggesting that Apple exit computing hardware, which was a serious suggestion many, many years back.”

Clemons, however, acknowledges that Sony has serious problems, some of which impact him as a user. “The problem is partly that Sony is too expensive, and partly that they no longer make anything I want,” he says. “My music is iTunes, my headphones are Bose and Sony has lost its innovation magic. But over the long haul, they’re just another insurance company. That is like being just another bank, which is boring. Sony’s problem is that right now, its electronics are even more boring.”

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Mobile Banking: The Next Big Thing Is Finally Here

After years of over-promise, mobile banking has hit a tipping point. With streams of customers in developed and developing countries alike growing swiftly, new business opportunities are pitting banks against tech companies, retail giants and others for control of the electronic wallet.

The Aite Group projects that, with rising smartphone use driving more consumers to mobile banking in the U.S., the number of people who will tap their bank account with a mobile device will rise from 33 million in 2012 to 96 million by 2016 – a 30% annual growth rate. The number of mobile bank customers will double over the next two years alone.

Mobile money is “not the next big thing — it is already a big thing,” says Tracey Weber, Citigroup’s managing director for consumer Internet and mobile banking in North America.

In developed countries, where smart phones increasingly prevail, banking and related services can go beyond simple transactions to include managing portfolios, retirement accounts and the like. What’s more, in the United States alone there are some 75 million people who either have no bank account or rely on nonbank services (such as pawn shops and payday loans) to get by. Many have some kind of mobile phone and so are potential mobile banking customers.

Yet, some of the most profitable gains for mobile banking will come in the developing world. In some countries, notably in Kenya, basic mobile phones have leapfrogged the substandard physical branch-banking system.  “We’ve gotten to the point where, in some countries, more people use phones for banking than use banks,” says Mauro Guillen, a management professor at Wharton. Kenya is one of them. More than half of the country’s 22 million adults use phone apps to do banking — twice as many as have bank accounts.

According to the World Bank, worldwide there are 1.8 billion people who have a mobile phone but no bank account. Millions of these people will be linked for the first time to the financial system by mobile-money applications. Notes Steven Lewis, lead analyst for Ernst & Young’s global banking and capital markets team, many millions of people in the emerging world are expected to join the middle class in the next few decades. The company — bank or telecom, or partnership — that brings them into mobile banking today stands to gain a long-term payoff in the future. “I would bet money that many will be upgrading to a smartphone before they get a bank account.”

As with any revolution, the old order is giving way to a new one, and banks are just one group of players on the mobile-money battlefield. Telecommunication companies, Internet and technology firms, retailers, and others are also in this fight. Factor in the marketing value of the data that can be gleaned from mobile transactions, and it’s clear why the new players could compete and win in this disruptive new digital space.

To delve into the future of mobile banking in more depth, Knowledge@Wharton this week published a free e-book (enhanced with videos), titled Mobile Banking – Financial Services Meet the Electronic Wallet. The book, sponsored by Ernst & Young, is available through Amazon Kindle, iBookstore, Nook and the Samsung Hub.

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Funding Innovation for Cleaner Cities

Government support – in the form of infrastructure investment, financing and tax incentives – has always helped boost new modes of transportation in the U.S., such as railroads, air travel and the gasoline-based auto. The same kind of support is needed to move away from today’s unsustainable carbon-based systems to more sustainable options, such as electric cars with solar-powered batteries. But so far the level of public support has been meager by comparison with the past. And just as bad, it has been intermittent in a way that increases risks and suppresses financing for innovators, says Gary Survis, a Wharton lecturer and senior fellow at Wharton’s Initiative for Global Environmental Leadership (IGEL) in this Knowledge@Wharton video report.

For more on this topic, download a copy of the IGEL report: Next Stop, Innovation: What’s Ahead for Urban Mobility

View this related video report: What’s Ahead for Urban Mobility?

 

 

 

 

 

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Check Your Connections: Is Your Social Network Strong?

connectionsIf you want to float an idea or advocate a cause, it’s never bad to aim for a broad, diverse audience. But when you’re ready to implement that idea or organize a specific campaign — say, a fund raiser — shrink the audience to a small group of like-minded people with strong connections who can work together and get the job done.

Why? The smaller the group, the more likely any interactions will be imbued with trust and reciprocity — key elements in successful networks.

That, says Wharton management professor Lori Rosenkopf, is the essence of social networking, a behavior that has changed little in theory from Paul Revere’s ride in 1775 to the Internet age, which replaced phone books with contact lists.

According to the famous Henry Wadsworth Longfellow poem, Paul Revere spread the word that the British were preparing to cross the Charles River into Lexington and Concord. During his midnight ride, the well-known silversmith and political activist awoke town leaders, militia members and acquaintances along the way. Another lesser known patriot, William Dawes, made the same trip by boat — and therefore told no one until he reached his destination.

Revere’s networking must have been superior because “he got the poem and Dawes got obscurity,” Rosenkopf quipped to a group of Wharton alumnae during a conference earlier this month.

During her presentation, Rosenkopf urged her audience to analyze their existing connections — from social clubs to professional contacts — and plug the gaps, citing geography and shared interests as the two main catalysts for coming together.

As managers, Rosenkopf also encouraged them to study how the flow of information works within in their companies in order to identify key players and to determine where and how those individuals perform in their own networks. More than one CEO has been replaced for being out of the loop, she noted. People who are linked to many different clusters or cliques are likely to be promoted faster, she added, while those in tightly-knit groups of like-minded people are likely to enjoy more long-term cooperation.

Some companies successfully improve communication by moving employees around various departments, allowing them to broaden their workplace relationships and diffuse information and innovative ideas, Rosenkopf pointed out.

If LinkedIn is your only network, it’s time for a tune-up, she said in response to several questions from the audience about digital networking. “[LinkedIn] is more of a broadcast network — one of many, but weak, ties. I continue to get invited by people I don’t know…. You can’t gauge body language on these sites, and it can be difficult to deepen a relationship to the point of trust and a sense of reciprocity. I think [networking sites like LinkedIn] are more useful to recruiters than to individuals serious about building strong connections.”

According to Rosenkopf, at its most basic, research on social networks reinforces the notion that the world is, indeed, small, and “it’s not what you know, but who you know.” Research in the field began in the 1950s, followed by a seminal study in the 1960s by Stanley Milgram, in which carefully tracked packages were delivered from the Midwest to Boston using an average-sized network of 5.8 people. The findings of the so-called “Small World Experiment” led to the popular play and movie Six Degrees of Separation.

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Blackberry’s Z10: It’s All About the Keyboard

z10 2When Blackberry’s Z10 phone hit the market last week, the response from consumers was reportedly lukewarm — although no sales figures are available yet, and Blackberry executives told The Wall Street Journal that marketing materials are just now being sent out to carriers and retailers.

The Z10, with its full-size touch screen, has already been marketed in other countries, and will be followed soon by the Blackberry Q10, a device expected to come with the hardware keyboard so popular with long-standing Blackberry fans.

For Wharton marketing professor Peter Fader, both the Z10 and the Blackberry’s rollout strategy are disappointing. “I have always been a strong supporter of Blackberry, one of the last people clinging to the ship as it sank,” he says. “But with the Z10, Blackberry has totally caved in. They are just cloning what everyone is doing.”

Rather than offering a product with all the “shiny social features” that competing phones have, Fader says that Blackberry “should have positioned the Z10 as a productivity device.  A big part of that would be the keyboard.” The better strategy would have been to introduce the keyboard phone (the Q10) first, rather than second, positioning it “as a business device that will let you do things as quickly as possible…. By leading with the Z10 instead, Blackberry shows it has given up on its former place in the market.”

Indeed, Fader adds, highlighting the return of the keyboard “would have resonated [with consumers] from a business standpoint as well as a personal one.” Blackberry missed an opportunity, he notes, “because no one owns that space.”

According to Lawrence G. Hrebiniak, Wharton emeritus professor of management, “There’s bad news and good (or less bad) news with the Z10. It looks good, is durable and well built, [offers] easy typing and a good camera, but it’s short on apps — [Blackberry] has approximately 100,000, about 12.5% of Apple’s stable. Blackberry will supposedly get more apps, but will customers bet on this? And it has a relatively high price tag — again, not good.”

Hrebiniak describes the U.S. launch as a “yawner,” almost a non-event. On the other hand, the U.S. market is “tough and saturated: Blackberry only has a 2% to 3% market share, so one might not have expected big numbers.” The company still has international markets to shoot for, including the U.K. — where its market share is 12% vs. 25% for Apple — and it has “Canada potentially backing the home town player. It also has the prospect of good corporate IT numbers. Business adoption, a traditional strength, can help again,” Hrebiniak states.

The company soon will announce Q4 sales and profits, notes Hrebiniak. “If the numbers show any positive signs from earlier introductions in Canada and the U.K., things would look less bad for the company, maybe even good. I’m not yet ready to predict Blackberry’s doom, but I’d really like to see more good, or less bad, news.”

Fader, for his part, suggests that Blackberry’s chances of remaining in business are “not looking good.” Will they still exist three years from now? “I think they will get gobbled up by someone else. The [acquirer], instead of just folding them into their existing business, will use them as the business line to complement their personal and entertainment line. I think the Blackberry name still has incredible equity and very strong associations. It’s just that they are doing everything they can to destroy it.”

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The 21st Century’s Sexiest Job? Data Scientist

data-modelDuring the first lecture of the spring semester, Ritika Khandeparkar, a graduate student in computer and information sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, recalls Wharton operations and information management professor Shawndra Hill telling her class that “being a data scientist is going to be the sexiest job of the 21st century.”

While describing the course — Data Mining for Business Intelligence — Hill explains more about the reasons why that might be the case. “Firms have had data for a very long time, and a lot of them have been mining it for a very long time,” she says. “What’s changing is that businesses are getting more and more data from consumers via people posting in social media and from other sources, and many firms are now collecting data on a larger scale.”

Thanks to new software programs and the increased availability of low-cost storage space in the cloud and elsewhere, it has also become easier and cheaper for firms to actually mine the data they collect, Hill adds.

The class is composed of about 100 students, some from Penn’s computer science and engineering programs and others from Wharton’s MBA program. In addition to attending weekly labs, the students formed groups and developed semester-long projects using data mining techniques to address a business-related problem.

In the process of completing their projects, the students have had to confront the same challenges many firms face when trying to make sense of their data, and also to analyze it in a way that adds value. “From the first day, I try to get them to start thinking about what novelty means in the space that they are working in,” Hill notes. “It can often be expensive to obtain data, and it may not be worth it to mine for an incremental benefit that doesn’t offer value beyond the cost of taking on the project.”

What the students also quickly find out is that the easy part is actually applying an algorithm to the data; the hard part is “cleaning the data [beforehand], making sure it is of high quality — and when it’s not, really understanding what is missing and why,” Hill says. “And then once you push the button and apply the algorithm, you have to understand what the results mean.”

Class discussions have also increasingly turned to the importance of protecting consumer privacy and whether it is ethical to take on a particular data mining project just because it is technologically possible. “I’m often challenging students to use their moral compass and think about if they would be happy if someone used their data for some of the things they suggest in class,” Hill notes.

Projects from this semester have focused on topics including predicting the success of microfinance loans, the probability of flight delays and the likelihood of a particular outcome in a basketball game. Students usually seek out large publicly available data sets, but some have also reached out to their personal and professional networks and obtained “proprietary data that would take faculty members months to get,” Hill says. “It’s exciting to see them click with a particular problem and also to go out and find data sets that I haven’t worked with before.”

For their project on predicting airline flight delays, Wharton MBA students Valeriy Rastorguev, Natalia Alikhashkina, Lee Horn, Irina Azu and Anu Verma found detailed weather and airline on-time performance data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Aviation Weather Center. Focusing on the route from John F. Kennedy airport in New York to Los Angeles International Airport, the group is working on developing a model that would help travelers choose a flight with the lowest probability of cancellation, even if the trip is weeks away.

“People really hate airline delays, and if you remember, [earlier this month] more than 1,000 flights were canceled because of a snowstorm,” says Rastorguev, who is working on earning his pilot’s license. “We thought it was a really high-impact problem, and with some research, we found that airline delays cost more than $12 billion to the economy. If we were able to help people know in advance whether the flight is likely to be delayed or canceled so they can choose another option … we estimate that they would be able to save roughly from a half billion to $1 billion a year.”

This is the first year that Hill has encouraged students from different disciplines to partner on the semester projects. Khandeparkar is working on a model to predict microfinance loan outcomes with fellow computer and information sciences student Bhavesh Raheja, systems engineering student Carolina Cornejo Gutierrez, computer and information technology student Adina Amanbekkyzy and Wharton MBA students Carlos Vega and Elizabeth McCracken.

The team used a set of social demographic data from microfinance lending platform Kiva.org. “We’re looking at the data to identify predictors for defaulting,” Vega says. “The next stage is trying to speak with third parties in the mobile and financial services industries to try and relate some of our initial findings with patterns we find in those areas.”

Data available through Kiva pertains to a narrow group of people, Khandeparkar adds. “If we stick to what Kiva gives us, our model isn’t going to be universal enough. The more diverse your data is, the better your model gets.”

Among the factors that the students are incorporating into the model are gender, marital status and whether or not someone owns a home or has children. But they’re also looking to analyze mobile phone usage data, such as number of calls made, time of day calls are made and whether calls are primarily made to the same or different groups of people. In addition to creating a platform that allows microfinance institutions to digitally assess loan applicants, Vega says the project could also aid in setting up loan repayment plans.

Khandeparkar says her team was also helped by the fact that the six members hail from five different countries: India, Kazakhstan, Panama, Peru and the U.S. ”Even though [the computer science and engineering students] knew what microfinance was, we didn’t know the details,” Khandeparkar notes. “The business students were able to tell us that, and we were able to better explain the technical aspects to them of how to convert a file or which algorithm would run better. Everyone’s ideas were completely different, and we worked really well together because of that.”

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