Category: Law and Public Policy

Show Me the Money

Big global banks continue to fudge the numbers that regulators use to judge banks’ soundness, says Richard J. Herring, Wharton finance professor. In this Knowledge@Wharton interview, Herring notes that the numbers used for many key capital measurements are “obscure” rather than “transparent,” which makes the whole stress-test process unreliable and “subject to manipulation.” It also makes it impossible to compare one bank’s soundness relative to another bank. Herring is a co-chair of the Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee, an unofficial group of former regulators, lawyers and academics who review ideas for new regulations and other financial proposals.

For more from this interview with professor Herring, see:

Big Banks Keep Watering Down Global Reserve Rules

The Global Bank Regulatory System Remains Crippled

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The Global Bank Regulatory System Remains Crippled

New bank regulations coming out of Basel III “almost certainly” will not prevent another global financial crisis, similar to the one the world is still recovering from, says Richard J. Herring, Wharton finance professor. In this Knowledge@Wharton interview, he notes we are “kind of fooling ourselves to have something out there that we think is going to be a protection but really does not afford much of a buffer at all.” Herring also is a co-chair of the Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee, an unofficial group of former regulators, lawyers and academics who review ideas for new regulations and other financial proposals.

For more from this interview with professor Herring, see:

Big Banks Keep Watering Down Global Reserve Rules

Show Me the Money

 

 

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Big Banks Keep Watering Down Global Reserve Rules

New Basel III regulations were supposed to force global banks to hold enough cash and highly liquid assets to prevent the kind of financial crisis that spun out in 2008. But it has not worked out that way. The banks, by pressuring officials negotiating the standards on behalf of their countries, have watered down the rules so much they offer little if any new protection, says Wharton finance professor Richard J. Herring, in this Knowledge@Wharton interview.
 

For more from this interview with professor Herring, see:

The Global Bank Regulatory System Remains Crippled
Show Me the Money

 

 

 

 

 

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What’s Ahead for Urban Mobility?

Watch for urban transportation – cars and bikes – increasingly to be driven by the ideas of a “sharing economy,” with many people sharing either ownership or renting a means of transportation. The result will be fewer cars in cities and a more economic use of urban space and consumer resources, says Gary Survis, a Wharton lecturer and senior fellow at Wharton’s Initiative for Global Environmental Leadership (IGEL).

Download a copy of the IGEL report: Next Stop, Innovation: What’s Ahead for Urban Mobility

See this related video: Funding Innovation for Cleaner Cities

Also posted in Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Knowledge@Wharton Today | Leave a comment

Zone of Despair

120810_unemploymentThe downward march of the 17-member-country eurozone economy continues with record unemployment figures – a grim reminder that austerity measures have yet to bottom out. Where that bottom is remains elusive, but pessimistic analysts suggest the region could face another five years of sluggish growth – or worse – if current policies continue.

Unemployment was at 12% in the eurozone in February, with 33,000 more people out of work than a month earlier (the rate was 10.9% in February 2012). Eurozone officials expect the rate to rise to 12.2% before the year is out. Recently released manufacturing figures were down across the board in the region too, suggesting that the general downturn could become worse in the second quarter.

What’s more, Spain just announced that growth this year will be even slower than recently predicted. Government officials there now acknowledge that the economy is likely to decline by 1%, vs. the 0.5% forecast earlier this year, putting them in line with Spain’s central bank forecasts. Unemployment is Spain is now at 26.3%, with youth unemployment at nearly 56% (and over 60% in many parts of the country). In France, the unemployment rate – at 10.8% — is the highest since the monetary union was set up.

In the Netherlands, the head of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) — the nation’s official economic forecasting agency — is the latest critic to suggest that austerity (cuts in government spending) does more harm than good in so-called balance sheet recessions. Such recessions occur when there is a major collapse in asset prices, such as real estate, which leads consumers and businesses to pay down debt, thus drastically shrinking spending — and the economy. This is what Europe has been undergoing since the financial crisis hit. Critics of austerity contend that cutting government spending at such a time is counterproductive and is causing the mix of recession and Depression underway.

Coen Teulings, CPB head, told the Financial Times that “the Dutch government’s inability to acknowledge the damage done by austerity despite mounting evidence is a case of ‘cognitive dissonance,’” given “a consensus among macroeconomists that cutting deficits does much more economic damage than usual during so-called ‘balance-sheet recessions.’” Even the International Monetary Fund – in the past a relentless supporter of austerity policies as a way of righting sinking economies — has acknowledged recently that such policies can damage an economy far more than was previously understood.

So, in the wake of the banking troubles in Cyprus and the political stalemate in Italy, which for weeks has been unable to form a government because of differences over austerity policies, what does the immediate future for Europe look like?

Expect “more of the same,” says Wharton management professor Mauro Guillen. “Austerity will prolong the recession. Germany should stimulate its economy and increase wages. The ECB should allow slightly higher inflation.”

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When Banks Outweigh an Economy

Supersized financial systems are the elephant in the boat when they become five to 10 times larger than the economy in which they operate. Can such arrangements be made to work, or are they structurally doomed? Wharton management professor Mauro Guillen says that without the right rules in place, such countries are skating on thin ice.

Related Videos:

Is Cyprus a Game Changer?

Does Germany Want to Split-up the Eurozone?

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Does Germany Want to Split-up the Eurozone?

Germany’s recent stances on eurozone financial crises – particularly in Cyprus – could be seen on some level as an unspoken desire to split the currency union in two, or force some countires to break away. Just what are Germany’s true intentions? Wharton management professor Mauro Guillen offers his views.

Related videos:

Is Cyprus a Game Changer?

When Banks Outweigh an Economy

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Is Cyprus a Game Changer?

Eurozone officials stumbled badly when they sought to confiscate some of the savings of small depositors in Cyprus to finance a bailout. The move uncovered big cracks in eurozone finances that officials hoped had been papered over. Wharton management professor Mauro Guillen assesses the systemic risks.

Related videos:

Does Germany Want to Split-up the Eurozone?

When Banks Outweigh an Economy

 

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